I've been meaning to post this before. I've had the data in a spreadsheet for a while but I was too lazy to figure out how to make a fanpost with a table. Yesterday's conversation regarding the 2013 cap situation made me revisit the idea. Particularly Invictus XI quoted these:
Cap projected to be "flat" in 2013,2014 est 122.0, 2015 is when jump is projected/Reason for low projections is money was needed for this yr
- Charlie Casserly
If @CharleyCasserly is right about the two more years of flat salary cap, a lot of veterans are going to be in danger the next few years. The Giants’ projected 2014 UFAs who could be impacted by a "flat" cap: Hakeem Nicks, Justin Tuck, David Diehl, Michael Boley, Corey Webster.
I will add to this that Beatty, KP, Osi, Kiwi, and Bennett (all of them making relatively little money) are projected 2013 UFAs and Cruz, a RFA.
So the question is, will the Giants be able to keep them and how? Take a look at the data yourselves after the jump...
|Name||2013 Cap hits NY Giants|
|2012 Draftee 1||$1,800,000.00***|
|2012 Draftee 2||$850,000.00***|
|2012 Draftee 3||$600,000.00***|
|2012 Draftee 4||$550,000.00***|
|2012 Draftee 5||$550,000.00***|
|2012 Draftee 6||$500,000.00***|
|2012 Draftee 7||$500,000.00***|
|2012 Draftee 8||$500,000.00***|
|8-man practice squad||$750,000.00***|
* 1st round tender amount for RFA
** Assuming the Giants pick up his option. TT has some 2012 incentives, based on simply not being injured, that do not count towards the 2012 cap because they're considered NLTBE (not likely to be earned). They're considered NLTBE because he missed all of the previous season. If he stays on the field and the Giants pick up the option, those unaccounted for incentives will count towards the 2013 season which means Thomas' cap number may be a couple million higher than $7 mil.
*** Estimated numbers based on 2011 sophomores.
(My source for most of these is spotrac.com. They are not always 100% correct but they usually come very close to the officially reported cap numbers.)
That's a total of approximately $125 mil tied to 37 players. Let's assume 8 rookies drafted for about $5 mil. That makes it $130 mil tied to 45 players. If Casserly's estimated $122 mil cap is correct, the Giants would already be over the cap by $7 mil while needing to sign at least 8 more players. That is what you call cap hell. That is why some of us cringed when we heard Manning, Baas, and Diehl restructured to make room for this season while pushing the money back to future years. To put this in perspective, Manning's cap number jumps from approximately $9 mil in 2012 to $20 mil in 2013. To make matters worse, the cap staying flat through 2014 prevents the Giants from abusing the practice of dumping salaries to future years.
Ok, but JR must know what he's doing. So what are some of the things he can do to cut down from $125 mil AND re-sign some key contributors. First of all, whatever cap space is left for this season can be rolled over to the next season by smart-playing with incentives. Almost every team does that. So if some players end up getting cut, like O'Hara and Seubert last year, the money saved now is money saved later. We can assume some players (some of them pricey) will get cut before the deadline to trim to roster to 53.
Also, some players will be cap casualties at the beginning of next offseason (like Jacobs this season). Here's what the Giants save by cutting the following players before June 1st, 2013:
Canty - 5.08 mil
Snee - 6.53 mil
Rolle - 4.65 mil
Diehl - 4.1 mil
I'm not assuming all, if any, will be cut. Just laying out the numbers. You can also be sure that JR will be drafting next month keeping 2013 in mind, if not in the earlier rounds, at least in the later ones. I still trust the GM that brought two SB championships in five years. But you can see for yourselves his job will be very tricky the next couple of years. Some key contributors will be gone, not by choice but by circumstance, and the media and the fans will be angry. Maybe he made a mistake by restructuring so much. Maybe he had no choice. I do not pretend to know. All I do is look at the numbers because I like to understand the current and future state of my favorite team. And now you know the numbers so you can play GM. What would you do?
Oh and this is my first fanpost. So be nice.