I have seen the future
No, not really. If I had, I'd be on a plane to Vegas, wouldn't I? But I have watched every game by both of these teams for several years now, and honestly for the past several nights I've lied in bed thinking about this game!
I'm no pro with Xs and Os. These are just a handful of my predictions about various aspects of the game, and how things could turn out.
Everyone is hyping the biggest mismatch in the game as being the Giants' WRs vs. The Patriots' DBs. And from a talent standpoint, I agree. But does talent = results? Perhaps the guys at Bleeding Green Nation would give you their opinion. In order to neutralize the Giants' deep-threat potential, I see the Pats frequently using the 4-3 front they have played with at times this year. They have gone more 3-4 in the previous 2 playoff games, but the Giants pose several deep/speed threats not possessed by Denver or Baltimore. To counteract this, Big Bad Bill Belichick goes to the 4-man line in various combinations (sound familiar, Giants fans?). Wilfork and Love inside, Anderson and Ellis outside. Suddenly the biggest mismatch in the game is not so clear.
David Baas, plagued by undisclosed neck and head injuries, has yet to become a force inside. Chris Snee is a good guard but most of BBV would agree he is playing the back nine of his Giants career now, having peaked a few years ago. Kevin Boothe may be the best of the three, and he's a solid guy but no world beater. If these guys can't push basically two Vince Wilforks, Eli will have trouble stepping up to deliver the deep ball. Oh, and by the way, that leaves speedy, athletic 10-sack beast Mark Anderson against the slow LT who lost his job this season David Diehl. On the other side it will be beast-man Shaun Ellis up against the groomed-for-an-armchair Kareem McKenzie.
There are mismatches all over this aspect of the game and I could see the Pats doing to Eli what the Giants did to Brady on '07. The Giants will need to bring in extra linemen like Tony Ugoh and Mitch Petrus to aid the run game. They will need good chipping and blocking from Ware and Bradshaw. And some of their older OL will have to play the best games of their careers. This is not even considering blitzes. I don't think the Pats will blitz excessively, but when they do, it will add to the matchup issues.
2. Both teams will commit to establishing the run early.
I heard the usually great guys on Sirius NFL (can I get a discount? That's like my 20th plug) say that we are going to see 90 passes on Sunday. I say nay nay. You remember GIANTS FOOTBALL? Well, although both of these coaches stand to exceed their teacher (I'd say Belichick already has) the influence is there. Both of these guys understand the value of the ground game. On the Patriots side of the ball, the numbers are somewhat misleading because the Patriots often use passes to fulfill the function of the run. I have long admired the skill with which the Pats pull off the WR screen. You've seen it: Quick out to Welker and suddenly the guy is in space with 3 blockers. I have foreseen the Pats giving us a healthy dose of BJGE, supplemented by Woodhead and Hernandez. Don't expect much Ridley, but DO expect to see Kevin Faulk. In fact, I see special opportunity for Faulk.
The Giants must run well to win this game. If the Patriots can focus on the pass and mitigate it with their 4-man front, the Giants will struggle to get well into the 20s. And ...
3. The Giants will win that battle.
Despite the OL being overmatched, Bradshaw and Jacobs will be the unexpected heart and fire of this team. They will punish tacklers. They will average 4 YPC. They will take some of the rpessure off Eli -- not that he struggles with pressure, but they can open opportunities in play-action and passing by performing well. They will exceed expectations and exceed 120 yards. Why? Because they have to.
4. Chad Ochocinco will help the Patriots offense.
I don't buy into the Gronkowski injury. If it IS bad, he will have Brett Favre's medicine cabinet delivered to the Pats' locker room and won't feel a thing until Valentine's Day. What does Ochenta y Cinco have to do with this? Well, the Giants will also have trouble matching up against the Patriots pass attack. For this game, 85 will get more than his usual 2 plays per game. He will run fly routes. No complexity to grapple with: Beat your man in a footrace. He will be matched up with speedster Aaron Ross. This plays into our hands for that individual matchup ... which benefits the Pats overall. It simply removes one of our cover DBs from the crowd between the hash marks, creating space for Welker, Gronk, Hernandez, et al. As per the Pats usual stat line, neither Branch nor Chad will put up 12-catch, 150-yard games. And as per usual, two of those other guys will.
5. Never underestimate the Belichick.
My vision has been clouded by interference from one stronger in the force than I ...
You can absolutely bet the bank that Bill is going to do something scheme-wise that is beyond our comprehension.
6. If he is not pressured, Eli will play his greatest game as a QB.
That's right. Single greatest game of his career. If the Pats do not collapse the pocket within 4 seconds on a regular basis, Eli Manning will throw for more than 400 yards and at least 4 touchdowns.
7. If the Patriots win, Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback of all time.
Sorry, Joe.
8. The final score of the game will be ...
27-23.
FanPosts are written by community members. This is simply a way for community members to express opinions too long to be contained in a comment.
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Obi-Wan: Luke, you’re going to find that many of the truths we cling to depend greatly on our own point of view.
You PLAY to WIN the GAME.
Dear Tebow, please let the Giants beat the Patriots.
by Simms-McConkey on Feb 2, 2012 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
Love the Star Wars theme
Went with “Do or do not, there is no try”. But my cursor hovered over the “I’ve got a bad feeling about this”. As with the rest of the playoffs, I am cautiously optimistic. In my opinion, the key to the game will be limiting the Pat offense. I know our offense can put points up against these guys, but I worry about the defense limiting the damage on the other side of the ball.
If our x-wings (Tuck, Osi, JPP) can get to Brady and send some proton torpedoes down his exhaust port, we will destroy the Patriot Death Star and TC will send Emperor Belichick down the shaft.
Side note, could completely see Eli saying to TC, “I won’t fail you. I am not afraid”.
Husker/Giants/Mets fan living behind enemy lines.
if I was graphically gifted
I’d redo a star wars poster for this
Coughlin = Yoda, Eli = Luke, Darth = Brady and Bill = emperor
You PLAY to WIN the GAME.
Dear Tebow, please let the Giants beat the Patriots.
by Simms-McConkey on Feb 2, 2012 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
There was a picture of this
But I don’t remember where I saw it
Self-praise is for losers. Be a winner. Stand for something. Always have class, and be humble.
-John Madden
The Ballard of Jake:
Stop→Slow→Truck→LEAP!
(Adapted from Raptor 22)
My one difference...
I would have JR as Yoda and Coughlin as Obi Wan.
Husker/Giants/Mets fan living behind enemy lines.
You get Rec'd mostly because it is a star wars theme

Team TAWD:
The entire 53 man roster of the 2011 New York Giants
by The Always Well Dressed... on Feb 2, 2012 12:10 PM EST reply actions
ha!
wait, WTF?
You PLAY to WIN the GAME.
Dear Tebow, please let the Giants beat the Patriots.
by Simms-McConkey on Feb 2, 2012 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
I watched the Pats - Ravens and was not really impressed
neither team was that physical. Sure there are physical guys on the Pats, but as a team top to bottom, they are more about speed and deception. The Jets were supposed to be physical, but I didn’t think they really brought it.
Then look at us and Niners. That NFC championship game was a throwback. It was like being in the 80s. So let’s assume they’ll sell out to pressure Eli, and we make sure we pressure Brady, which QB is more likely to tough it out? Which team will respond when it gets gritty? That’s where I think the Giants biggest advantage lies.
We beat up the Falcons, we beat up the Packers with a lot of physical play. I’m calling for it again. I think BJ / AB are effective, because they will try to protect the secondary. I think that on defense, we will hit their TEs a ton, Finley was affected, I’m less sure about these two. Gronks injury is bad, look at the sneaker he’s wearing. The swelling is still enough to puff the laces area. He may play, but I think we get away with a LB on him.
Everytime BB and Brady have won a Superbowl it was with the better defense. That’s not the case this year. I expect a Giants victory, I don’t expect a blow out. But like GB the pt difference might swell at the end.
Eli is our King!
Whatever happens… let’s just hope that no one starts killing younglings.
Great article.
@DigDeepNYR
"It's just pain." -Brandon Prust | "In Prust we Trust."
Blueshirt Banter
Good stuff man
But that came off extremely pessimistic. I’m nervous about the game, and stuff like this doesn’t help! Just imagine Ochocinco burning us for 2 TD’s.
New York Knicks = Sleeping Giants
Wanna check out an awesome blog? http://cospeniazmi.blogspot.com
Pats have been playing much more of a 3-4
Since the loss of Andre Carter in week 15. They don’t have the personnel for a 4-3 without him, and if they run it, I’ll take it.
Since then:
Week 16 (vs. Miami): Matt Moore (281 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT)
Week 17 (vs. Buffalo): Ryan Fitzpatrick (307 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT)
Div. Round (vs. Denver): N/A
Conf Champ (vs. Baltimore: Joe Flacco (306 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT)
Denver doesn’t count because whether you love Tebow or hate him, he’s not a real quarterback. Other than that, it’s a pretty mediocre list of quarterbacks lighting up the Patriot defense.
Worth noting is also that the Pats have not played away from Foxboro during this stretch.
I think they show a lot of 4-3 to mitigate our deep throw advantage and shorten pocket time for Eli.
regardless of ignoring the Denver game and skewing the stats (they put up 29 against a pretty good Steelers D) they have only given up 22 ppg in the games you cite.
That’s not enough points to beat the Pats right now, IMHO… they’re also averaging 2 INTs per game in those…
I’d rather see the 3-4 to give Eli more time, as well as blitz packages he can exploit…
You PLAY to WIN the GAME.
Dear Tebow, please let the Giants beat the Patriots.
by Simms-McConkey on Feb 2, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
Ignoring the Denver game isn't to skew stats
Just that when you have a quarterback like Tebow, you’re talking about a completely different style of offense. Not to say that Baltimore, Miami, and Buffalo run a similar style of offense to the Giants, but Denver is miles apart from ours if we’re talking scheme.
I’d rather see the 3-4, and I’m not saying we’re going to see it because I’d rather see it (though it’d be nice). However, they ran mostly 4-3 until that injury to Carter, which says something about how confident they feel about their personnel in the 4-3 now.
Of course, it’s hard to say which unknown guy could show up with a superhuman effort (like Tyree, going back to 2007).
And yes, Pats have been getting a good amount of turnovers this season. Not to take anything away from them, but they also haven’t played many great quarterbacks:
1) Chad Henne
2) Philip Rivers
3) Ryan Fitzpatrick (x2)
4) Jason Campbell
5) Mark Sanchez (x2)
6) Tony Romo
7) Ben Roethlisberger
8) Eli Manning
9) Tyler Palko (backup)
10) Vince Young (backup)
11) Dan Orlovsky (backup)
12) Rex Grossman
13) Tim Tebow (x2)
14) Matt Moore (backup)
15) Joe Flacco
We’re looking at four games in which they’ve faced top ten quarterbacks (though Rivers started the year in a pretty bad slump).
Not that it means anything for this game. Like you’ve said, they haven’t given up a ton of points per game, which is what counts. I hope we get match-ups we can exploit for touchdowns.
Palko > Eli
nywins42 needs a new screen name - "nywins46" sounds great!
Just ordered FatHeads for all available Giants. Now I have something to aim at when punching holes in my wall.
FACT
Team TAWD:
The entire 53 man roster of the 2011 New York Giants
by The Always Well Dressed... on Feb 2, 2012 6:41 PM EST up reply actions
FYI on TOs and the postseason
There is little correlation between winning the turnover battle in the regular season and the playoffs.
The thesis is that when two good teams play, they usually both are good at taking care of the ball, reducing opportunity. And they both have been coached well at ball hawking and being alert on the field. I don’t see the kind of mismatch that usually generates turnovers between these teams.
The wildcard is if BB can come up with schemes that confuse Eli and our offense. You’ve heard me complain about the complexity of our passing offense. This is where it could pay dividends. Our WRs are very field aware. Eli has better field knowledge than almost all other QBs. It makes them harder to bamboozle.
Eli is our King!
oh snap
Homey said CORRELATION.
Giants win.
You PLAY to WIN the GAME.
Dear Tebow, please let the Giants beat the Patriots.
by Simms-McConkey on Feb 3, 2012 9:50 AM EST up reply actions
You know I'm a math geek
If I had my act together earlier in life I probably would have tried to teach at a university.
Eli is our King!
well I just had to take the first of 2 advanced stats courses in the fall...
and Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficient has scarred me … not so much just the simple calculation but what it leads to… pooled variance? Standard Error of Measurement?
pardon me while I have a seizure…
You PLAY to WIN the GAME.
Dear Tebow, please let the Giants beat the Patriots.
by Simms-McConkey on Feb 3, 2012 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
I'm the furthest thing from a math person
And I once made the mistake of taking a metaphysics course, which turned out to be everything I could ask for (newtonian mechanics, general and special relativity equations, four dimensional space-time graphs and so on) in one sixteen week nightmare.
Haven’t been the same since.
I think the Giants are talking so much smack to get inside Brady's head
The one thing we have seen the last few weeks is QBs bailing from the pocket. The first sig of pressure, they’re running. The prepared play goes out the window. That is what we want – Brady hearing footsteps. The deep ball is not as much of a threat this week. The safeties have to come up and take away the holes where Gronk and Welker live. In the last Super Bowl, Pierce played up to take away that 5-yard Welker cross. Welker has a greater route tree now, but it’s still going to be a lot of short and intermediate throws.
Switching 4-3 to 3-4, some young or just not good players in the secondary, we need to find their coverage mistakes and run to the holes. This game has Cruz written all over it. Let’s not be afraid of their safeties. Throw deep balls where the WRs can make a play on them.
Most importantly, keep everything to the sides away from Wilfork, Mayo, and Spikes. Their strength up front is over the middle. I want to see Beckum take Spikes to the sideline in coverage.
2012 NYG mock - 1: Janoris Jenkins CB, 2: Kevin Zeitler G, 3: A.J. Jenkins, WR, 4: Neiko Thorpe S, 5: Vick Ballard RB, 6: Rishard Matthews WR, 6: some random LB, 7: BPA
I like all of this, just one fear
I have a suspicion that Belichick, knowing that Edelman can’t really cover guys in our passing offense, he will try to use it as bait. Give up an easy short/medium completion, but then have a safety or CB jump a route hoping for a pick six to turn the game.
I want Eli to just work the field, they’ll react and then we will have some good opportunities to let the posse make some big plays.
Eli is our King!
I was gonna go do something like this, but then you went ahead and did it and explained it better than me. Reccidy rec
"We will not be denied." - Antrel Rolle
by BigBlueIntervention on Feb 2, 2012 2:43 PM EST reply actions
Great post, rec'd
Both teams will have a solid game plan on both sides of the ball. that’s why I feel that the +/- turnover ratio will be the x factor.
I wonder how many punts we’ll see? put the over/under at 7?
over
3 in the 1st quarter.
So sez the crystal ball.
You PLAY to WIN the GAME.
Dear Tebow, please let the Giants beat the Patriots.
by Simms-McConkey on Feb 2, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
I suspect the game plan says a punt is OK
Thats how they approached SF, and it still makes sense.
Eli is our King!
Simms
Thanks for the insight from behind enemy lines but with Big Blue Eyesw
Recd
Eli is our King!
Brilliant
Thanks so much for this. I read so much pointless blather this week. Of course, you do put the fear into me with your description of Pat’s O-line play, but then I get to the end feeling OK because you’ve got Bradshaw and Jacobs running through people. I had to go with the Skywalker quote.
FINISH!
hey!
I was wondering about you not 20 mintues ago.
You PLAY to WIN the GAME.
Dear Tebow, please let the Giants beat the Patriots.
by Simms-McConkey on Feb 4, 2012 11:28 AM EST up reply actions

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