Luck vs. Skill
by Fishhead202 on Jan 26, 2012 2:13 PM EST
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I've never done a fanpost before, hopefully this is the kind of thing they are designed for.
I've been hearing an exceptional amount about how the Giants aren't the best team in the NFC, don't deserve to be where they are, and that all they have going for them is that luck was on their side. I'd like to take a crack at the role that luck plays in this game.
1. Any Given Sunday - The game of football is an intense one. It wears down a human body very quickly. We just saw a huge outcry by the players over extending the season by 2 games. The game is brutal enough that it is only played once a week, as opposed to 3 or 4 times like hockey, basketball, or (seemingly by Baltimore traffic during Orioles season) 12 times a week like baseball. The game also cannot accommodate a best of 7 series through the playoffs. The more that you condense the season/playoffs, the more luck factors in. This is the game we love, and the game is played with this in mind.
2. Calculated Risk - Every play has an infinite number of variables. Every few plays, something dramatic happens that can alter the game. Think of Osi's sack of Rodgers when it would have been a clear touchdown. As humans, we think rarity = luck, but this isn't always the case. The plan is that occasionally you will reach the QB. When a QB throws, everyone tosses their hands up. The chance of tipping the ball is slim, but it's a better chance than if you didn't try. The goal is to increase these odds as much as possible so those 'lucky' plays happen more often.
3. History is Written by the Victors (and the bitter bloggers) - Generally there are unique plays that will go each way. They get evened out to an extent. The 'luck' of the loser is quickly forgotten, as it clearly wasn't enough. The big plays of the victor are either written off as brilliance or 'luck', when in reality, they tend to fall somewhere in between.
I'll use a recent example to finish my point. The Hail Mary to Nicks at the end of the first half of the Green Bay game. What are the odds he comes down with it? Slim? None? Of course there is a chance, that's why hail marys are thrown at the end of every half. It's a risk/reward balance. If you threw that pass 100 times, and only pull it off once, is it luck? It's a calculated risk. It's part of the game.
This isn't a game that is designed to see who the best team is over the season. Nor is it to see who is the most consistent. The goal is the Super Bowl. The game is to get that trophy, and part of that is in creating 'luck'. It's taking small percentage risks, because eventually they pay off. Playing this game well requires luck, and the best teams understand this and create their own luck through personnel, strategy, and calculated risk.
FanPosts are written by community members. This is simply a way for community members to express opinions too long to be contained in a comment.
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I don't disagree with what you're saying
but I don’t think it tells the whole story. Some plays involve pure luck with no skill component at all. For example the referee’s forward progress call on Bradshaw, involved no skill on Bradshaw’s part. If the call was correct, then luck doesn’t enter into it. If the call was wrong, then the Giants were the recipients of a piece of luck. Some plays involve no skill on your side but either luck or a lack of skill on the other side. For example, the ball hitting the returner’s knee had nothing to do with the Giants enhancing their chances by taking incremental risks. Devin Thomas’s recovery of that ball was a skill component, but, without luck/lack of skill on SF’s part, the play doesn’t happen.
So the way I look at it, when a team’s own skill plays a substantial part in the outcome of a play, I would attribute very little of the play to luck. The Green Bay fumbles or J Will’s strip fit this category. Sometimes it’s more complicated. Did a receiver miss a catch because the ball was slightly overthrown and the overthrow was possibly a result of pressure on the QB. Under those circumstances it’s hard to say how much is skill and how much is luck. If an opponent makes a truly unforced error on a play that a reasonable person would have made, that’s probably lucky. But in any case there can still be lots of plays where a team gets lucky without being able to argue that their own skill played a role in the result.
I don’t see the Giants as a particularly lucky or unlucky team over the course of the season. But I would say luck played a big part in the win over SF.
by Tucker Fredrickson on Jan 26, 2012 3:03 PM EST reply actions
Good Points
and I appreciate the reply.
There certainly is some actual luck that occurs in the game. The things that are true variables. I meant to mention the ball off the thigh, and the refs, and already felt like I was rambling :)
The refs, I would argue, are the 1 true variable that (usually) can’t be controlled. However, if you think of it as ‘playing the odds’, the refs are only a factor on the margins, so while a blown call can certainly impact a game, if the ref is involved, you’re already right there on the line, so to speak. That might not have come out clearly….
Thomas’ recovery is another great point. I’d make the argument that he was a weak link on that team. Had their first string receiver been in, changes are those fumbles don’t happen. by putting him in, they were forced to lower their chances of something good happening. Things like this, especially, are a real combination of luck (how a ball bounces), and skill (how a player reacts).
I would certainly agree with you though, that there was definitely some luck there, as well as poor decisions by Thomas, and good decisions by the Giants.
Again, appreciate the reply.
Now that's just mean...but funny
Go Giants! Go Red Sox! This is not a typo, this is my life. I am "A Fan Divided"
Looks like your reaction is...divided
The truth. The REAL voice of reason
by tommy d. on Jan 28, 2012 10:56 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
In a post with several very good points,
I like “as humans we think rarity = luck.” No it doesn’t, I agree. Sometimes a great athlete is in the right place at the right time and makes the play.
Great first Fanpost. Rec’d.
The truth. The REAL voice of reason
I'll break this down for everyone...
according to our oh-so “intelligent” blogging brethren over at BGN, we are the luckiest franchise in the history of the NFL. Every pass Cruz catches and runs into the end zone is nothing but luck. Eli is lucky because there’s no way a goober like him can be any good. We are lucky because we got JPP instead of Brandon Graham.
SKILL is what the Eagles and all of their players have.
Any questions??
They have a skill at whining it seems.....
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
That's what prompted me to think about this a bit more
i don’t pick up Madden every year, so there were many, many games where I could just long bomb to Burress in double coverage and he’d come down with it. My buddy would curse under his breath and say how lucky I was. When you’ve got someone with a great vertical, and hands the size of a baseball glove, you’re playing with a stacked deck.
Is it luck that JPP’s got a 7’ wingspan? When JPP knocks down a pass, it’s not luck, it’s intelligent player picking knowing that someone built that way will tip more than the average player.
If Casey Matthews did it, it'd be skill...
but because JPP does it, it’s nothing but luck.
by sexyscottish on Jan 26, 2012 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
Yes...Are we lucky that we don't have any of thier skill players?
If you want to argue that Manning is a) not a great quarterback or b) not the best quarterback in franchise history your credibility is automatically shot.
by LoNJDTechnology on Jan 26, 2012 9:57 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Good post!!!!
Rec’d. Thought provoking and informative.
If you want to argue that Manning is a) not a great quarterback or b) not the best quarterback in franchise history your credibility is automatically shot.
by LoNJDTechnology on Jan 26, 2012 10:00 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Thank You!
Been really enjoying the community here!
If SKILL is what the Eagles have
we need to put the most unskilled team we can find out there…
since SKILL has never won a Super Bowl!
You PLAY to WIN the GAME.
Dear Tebow, please let the Giants beat the Patriots.
by Simms-McConkey on Jan 28, 2012 8:52 AM EST up reply actions
Luck
Is when preparation meets opportunity. Giants knew Kyle Williams could be had. They prepared for it, had the opportunity and were lucky he coughed up the ball. BOOM
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Jan 26, 2012 6:37 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I am on fire
First Fritz Von Erich for “The Claw” and now John Lee Hooker for Boom Boom
You PLAY to WIN the GAME.
Dear Tebow, please let the Giants beat the Patriots.
by Simms-McConkey on Jan 28, 2012 8:54 AM EST up reply actions
In football
I think the luck is more in the elements. A gust of wind that blows a pass or kick, a chunk of the field tearing when a player cuts, and other things like this are luck. Nobody knows when it will happen, and no amount of skill can prevent it from happening.
There are very few plays by players that involve luck. I think the one by J.J. Watts on Houston where he stuck his hands up to block a pass, yet he actually made an INT was kind of lucky but also involved some skill of course. Skill to time the jump, luck to have the pass stick.
I thought about it.....
but felt like it would be seen as trolling, or just open up a big flame war. I’ve been following BBV all season, and genuinely like the vibe/people here. I’ve learned a lot, and compared to several other SB teams’ pages it stays much more civil, even after a losing streak.
Posting this on BGN
would be the way to introduce yourself to our rival. lol
The truth. The REAL voice of reason
fire clawfin!
You PLAY to WIN the GAME.
Dear Tebow, please let the Giants beat the Patriots.
by Simms-McConkey on Jan 29, 2012 9:23 AM EST up reply actions
I'm so sick of all the 'Luck' idiots in the media
We’re hearing both Pats and Giants aren’t the best teams in the Super Bowl. Well guess what, they are the best teams, because they’re in it. You can’t say both teams were lucky to get there when giants have won 5 straight elimination games and Pats are on a 10 game win streak.
Cundiff is on his 4th team in 9 yrs, not exactly an elite kicker. His career fg% from 30-39 yds is 75%, so it isnt outta the question he misses a kick like that in a high pressure spot. In fact he was run outta Dallas after missing similar kicks during ‘05 season.
As for Kyle Williams miscues, I said before the game if Ted Ginn was ruled out it would be a huge advantage for us. The one off Williams knee was a stupid rookie mistake (or 2nd yr, either way he doesnt have much NFL experience). Ginn would’ve never been that close to the ball but we see bonehead plays all the time with backups. Thats the risk you take when you put someone in there with almost no real gametime. If he took one to the house would we say it was luck? Prob not. But why? Is it more likely a backup makes a big play or a bad one? Now his fumble in OT, that was just a great play from J.Williams. He timed that hit on the ball perfectly and Thomas was heads up to fall on it. Nothin lucky about that play. Teams practice those knock out drills all the time. Let’s put all this ’luck’fest behind already!
"Am I not destroying my enemies when I make friends of them?"
-Abraham Lincoln
"Let me explain something to you. Um, I am not 'Mr. Lebowski'. You're Mr. Lebowski. I'm the Dude. So that's what you call me. You know, that or, uh, His Dudeness, or uh, Duder, or El Duderino if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
-Jeffery Lebowski, The Dude
I agree with most of what u said but...
Jwill didn’t try and knock the ball out he was simply trying to make the tackle. In fact he was beaten badly by Williams and had the ball been properly tucked away Williams may have either scored or at least got a big chunk of yards.
FIRE Perry Fewell
by bleedblue12 on Jan 26, 2012 11:47 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
i hear what your sayin
But he still had the sense to hit at the ball when he knew he couldn’t get the tackle.
"Am I not destroying my enemies when I make friends of them?"
-Abraham Lincoln
"Let me explain something to you. Um, I am not 'Mr. Lebowski'. You're Mr. Lebowski. I'm the Dude. So that's what you call me. You know, that or, uh, His Dudeness, or uh, Duder, or El Duderino if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
-Jeffery Lebowski, The Dude
You're reaching...
it was more of a desperate lunge and the ball popped out. He look as shocked as anybody after the play.
FIRE Perry Fewell
I saw him tomahawk that ball
it’s definitely something that’s taught and practiced.
You PLAY to WIN the GAME.
Dear Tebow, please let the Giants beat the Patriots.
by Simms-McConkey on Jan 28, 2012 8:55 AM EST up reply actions
Lol
I’m sure you did Simms. Watch the play again he lunges in desperation and is shocked when he realized the ball was on the ground. Listen I think luck= when hard work meets opportunity but to say he let K.Williams run past him hoping he didn’t secure the ball and tried to knock it out is crazy talk!
FIRE Perry Fewell
by bleedblue12 on Jan 29, 2012 12:52 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
it's just how a great number of tackles are made
with one of the wrap-up arms, the defender hits the ball. I have no basis for the frequency but I’d say that when the opportunity if there, defenders/tacklers attack the ball the majority of the time.
Are you saying he was just trying to punch Williams ANYWHERE, and it just so happened to connect directly with the ball?
So i went back and watched it in slo-mo.
It looks like he almost gets beat on the juke, and yes, he is making a desperate lunge. I’d say you’re more right than me. All I can say to support my point is that he could have reached low. He didn’t, he still went for the ball-carrying area. He didn’t chop the ball though, I was fan-remembering that … he hit the arm right next to the ball… sorry for the inaccuracy!
You PLAY to WIN the GAME.
Dear Tebow, please let the Giants beat the Patriots.
by Simms-McConkey on Jan 29, 2012 6:49 PM EST up reply actions
Where the credit goes to Jwill....
And what makes it a great play by him is he never gave up on the play giving himself a chance to knock the ball out.
FIRE Perry Fewell
by bleedblue12 on Jan 29, 2012 12:56 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I Hate Calling This Luck.....
Luck generally implied ‘good’, and i don’t want anyone to think that I wish for injuries. The real luck (as in randomness that can’t be controlled by the team) was Ginn’s injury.
That being said, it could have been compensated for by having better depth at the position, which falls on the 49ers.
Nice job
Luck is never really part of it. Every game has a certain amount of rare events and randomness. It’s what each team does when these random events and rare events happen that matters. There was clearly nothing random about Devin Thomas’s play. He was hardly lucky. A former high draft pick, now on the fringe of an NFL roster, at the precipice of a championship, he played alert and motivated.
Bad teams routinely ignore these events and lose the tight games.
Eli is our King!
Great post, good analysis
first two comments discussed the topic quite well…after that, LOL.
by The Cole Train on Jan 27, 2012 10:10 AM EST reply actions
I like your third point.
Both teams experience luck, but that enjoyed by the loser is soon forgotten. Maybe in Green Bay there was a strong element of luck in the hail Mary, but what about the Packer’s good fortune: Jennings bailed out of his fumble, the PI on Osi? It’s also easy to forget that Kyle Williams had another fumble in the backfield in the first half, which somehow Osi was unable to corral for the turnover. You think the 49ers fans weren’t counting their lucky stars at that moment?
Nice observations.
Nice post
Luck plays a part in games for sure, but good teams are focused and prepared to make the most out of situations. A defender can strip a ball, but may not have any control over which direction the ball bounces when it pops out. Having a ST crew prepared for fumbles and always focused on the ball can help them recover it, when the other team may be a split-second off in reacting.
Keep the faith!
Luck > Skill
I may not be the most noble of men but in a town of lepers, im the one with the most fingers.
Giant LB'zz SUCK!! Mark Herzlich, Jacquian Williams,...Maybe .. Sadly this has been modified.
ill take it!
I may not be the most noble of men but in a town of lepers, im the one with the most fingers.
Giant LB'zz SUCK!! Mark Herzlich, Jacquian Williams,...Maybe .. Sadly this has been modified.
one more thing on "the best team"
How can you judge who the best team on the field was on a given day?
Should it be by the past? Should it be by their record coming in? How many yards they racked up? Who seemed to control the ebb and flow of the game?
Nah. It’s the team that scores the most points. So let’s be clear:
The team that wins the game is, by definition, the better team.
You PLAY to WIN the GAME.
Dear Tebow, please let the Giants beat the Patriots.
The New York Football Giants: The best team in football.
This is not the 2007 team.
2011 NYG will have their own legacy.
Exactly
Football isn’t a game where we search to see who the better team is over a long series of games. While that may work in other sports, football is about a single 60minute shot. That concept is as much a part of the game as the forward pass.
One more win will prove it.
What a season this has been. 6-2, 1-5, 5-0
The truth. The REAL voice of reason
Almost like 3 different teams...
1. The Eli show and an easy schedule, horrible defense.
2. Eli still being Eli. Can’t get out of there own way, silver lining good showing vs. GB.
3. See 1& 2, rebirth defensively with more man and release of the
Dogs up front. Suddenly look unbeatable!
FIRE Perry Fewell
by bleedblue12 on Jan 29, 2012 1:01 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
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