FanPost

Fan's Take: Evaluating Jerry Reese - A Rebuttal

[Note by Ed Valentine, 09/13/11 11:59 AM EDT: BBI has put together his own take on evaluating Jerry Reese's drafts. Everyone is allowed to have their own opinion. Mine is that Reese is still a top-flight GM. Anyway, read on. ]

This is my rebuttal to the Fan's Take: Evaluating Jerry Reese's Draft. I came up with a system to grade Reese's draft and compared the numbers with three other teams.

The System

Of course, when it come to down to evaluating drafts for a GM, there will be subjectivity. As a disclaimer, these numbers are completely arbitrary. They are numbers that I picked because they made sense to me. Let me explain: Ahmad Bradshaw is not 4x better than Hakeem Nicks. But its 4x more impressive that Jerry Reese found a comparable player in the 7th round.

I minimized the penalty for injury, because, well, you can't really take that into account when drafting someone unless they were really injury prone (and none of the players that were injured were).

You might think I am being a little harsh with the "Cut-Performance" section. Giving a -1 for a 7th round cut (which is equivalent to a 3rd round key backup in value). I thought this important, because the whole point of the draft is to add players and find quality. To cut a player is to be considered a failure on your part and thus, you are penalized for it.

Of course, you might also disagree with where I ranked the players. This is completely subjective again, and its my best guess. I do think that JPP will make the jump to impact starter, but as of right now he isn't just yet. What is an impact starter, you say? Let me explain:

Impact Starter - Arguably top 10 in his position in the NFL

Solid Starter - A strong starter that contributes

Key Backup/Spot Starter - A mediocre starter or priority backup

Injured (Positive or Neutral) - Injured, but hopeful for contribution

Injured (Negative) - Injured, and unlikely to contribute anytime soon

3rd String/PS - Low priority backup or practice squad fodder

Cut - Performance - Cut because of performance

1st Round (1 point)

2nd Round

(1.5 points)

3rd Round

(2 points)

4th Round

(2.5 points)

5th Round

(3 points)

6th Round

(3.5 points)

7th Round

(4 points)

Impact Starter (x2.5)

2.5

Hakeem Nicks

3.75

5

6.25

7.25

8.75

10

Ahmad Bradshaw

Solid Starter (x1.5)

1.5

Jason Pierre-Paul

Kenny Phillips

2.25

Linval Joseph

William Beatty

Terrell Thomas

Steve Smith

3

Mario Manningham

3.75

Zak DeOssie*

4.5

Jonathon Goff

Kevin Boss

5.25

6

Key Backup/Spot Starter (x0.5)

0.5

Aaron Ross

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

Mitch Petrus

1.75

2

Injured (Positive or Neutral) (x0)

0

0

0

Ramses Barden

Travis Beckum

0

0

Adam Koets

0

0

Injured (Pessimistic) (x-1/2val)

-0.5

-0.33

Clint Sintim

-0.25

Chad Jones

-0.20

-0.17

-0.14

-0.13

3rd string/PS (x-2/val)

-2

-1.33

-1

-0.8

Andre Brown

-0.67

-0.57

Adrian Tracy

-0.5

Cut - Performance (x-4/val)

-4

-2.67

-2

Jay Alford

-1.6

Phillip Dillard

Bryan Kehl

-1.33

Rhett Bomar

-1.15

DeAndre Wright

Andre Woodson

Michael Johnson

-1

Matt Dodge

Stoney Woodson

Robert Henderson

*DeOssie is an impact starter at his position, but he was originally drafted as an LB, and also, he's a LS...c'mon now. That's why I knocked him down to "solid starter" status.

The Results

Since 2007, Jerry Reese has scored 29.32 points total. Divide this by the number of draft picks (31) for a final score of 0.946

For comparison (I'm not going to list tables for these teams because that's tedious/long) here are the values of 3 teams who are often lauded for their drafting prowess. Note: Also subjective, but I tried to be as fair as possible, so you will have to trust me (that or do it yourself and compare):

Philadelphia: 33.08/36 = 0.919

New England: 34.97/40 = 0.875

Baltimore: 28.70/30 = 0.957

For these, it is important to again stress the subjectivity of this. I was able to get a pretty good grasp of Philadelphia players, but for Baltimore and New England (aside from the names that I knew) I looked down the depth charts for each to assign values.

With this system, I'd say around 0.9 is the upper echelon. All four of these teams fit into this category. New England suffers because, while they have found quality players (Sebastian Vollmer, Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, etc), they have a huge quantity of picks and many of them were cut, which hurt them in this ranking.

Also, Ozzie Newsome is awesome.

FanPosts are written by community members. This is simply a way for community members to express opinions too long to be contained in a comment.

SB Nation Featured Video
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Big Blue View

You must be a member of Big Blue View to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Big Blue View. You should read them.

Join Big Blue View

You must be a member of Big Blue View to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Big Blue View. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker