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Fan's Take: Evaluating Jerry Reese - A Rebuttal

[Note by Ed Valentine, 09/13/11 11:59 AM EDT: BBI has put together his own take on evaluating Jerry Reese's drafts. Everyone is allowed to have their own opinion. Mine is that Reese is still a top-flight GM. Anyway, read on. ]

This is my rebuttal to the Fan's Take: Evaluating Jerry Reese's Draft. I came up with a system to grade Reese's draft and compared the numbers with three other teams.

Star-divide

The System

Of course, when it come to down to evaluating drafts for a GM, there will be subjectivity. As a disclaimer, these numbers are completely arbitrary. They are numbers that I picked because they made sense to me. Let me explain: Ahmad Bradshaw is not 4x better than Hakeem Nicks. But its 4x more impressive that Jerry Reese found a comparable player in the 7th round.

I minimized the penalty for injury, because, well, you can't really take that into account when drafting someone unless they were really injury prone (and none of the players that were injured were).

You might think I am being a little harsh with the "Cut-Performance" section. Giving a -1 for a 7th round cut (which is equivalent to a 3rd round key backup in value). I thought this important, because the whole point of the draft is to add players and find quality. To cut a player is to be considered a failure on your part and thus, you are penalized for it.

Of course, you might also disagree with where I ranked the players. This is completely subjective again, and its my best guess. I do think that JPP will make the jump to impact starter, but as of right now he isn't just yet. What is an impact starter, you say? Let me explain:

Impact Starter - Arguably top 10 in his position in the NFL

Solid Starter - A strong starter that contributes

Key Backup/Spot Starter - A mediocre starter or priority backup

Injured (Positive or Neutral) - Injured, but hopeful for contribution

Injured (Negative) - Injured, and unlikely to contribute anytime soon

3rd String/PS - Low priority backup or practice squad fodder

Cut - Performance - Cut because of performance

1st Round (1 point)

2nd Round

(1.5 points)

3rd Round

(2 points)

4th Round

(2.5 points)

5th Round

(3 points)

6th Round

(3.5 points)

7th Round

(4 points)

Impact Starter (x2.5)

2.5

Hakeem Nicks

3.75

5

6.25

7.25

8.75

10

Ahmad Bradshaw

Solid Starter (x1.5)

1.5

Jason Pierre-Paul

Kenny Phillips

2.25

Linval Joseph

William Beatty

Terrell Thomas

Steve Smith

3

Mario Manningham

3.75

Zak DeOssie*

4.5

Jonathon Goff

Kevin Boss

5.25

6

Key Backup/Spot Starter (x0.5)

0.5

Aaron Ross

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

Mitch Petrus

1.75

2

Injured (Positive or Neutral) (x0)

0

0

0

Ramses Barden

Travis Beckum

0

0

Adam Koets

0

0

Injured (Pessimistic) (x-1/2val)

-0.5

-0.33

Clint Sintim

-0.25

Chad Jones

-0.20

-0.17

-0.14

-0.13

3rd string/PS (x-2/val)

-2

-1.33

-1

-0.8

Andre Brown

-0.67

-0.57

Adrian Tracy

-0.5

Cut - Performance (x-4/val)

-4

-2.67

-2

Jay Alford

-1.6

Phillip Dillard

Bryan Kehl

-1.33

Rhett Bomar

-1.15

DeAndre Wright

Andre Woodson

Michael Johnson

-1

Matt Dodge

Stoney Woodson

Robert Henderson

 

*DeOssie is an impact starter at his position, but he was originally drafted as an LB, and also, he's a LS...c'mon now. That's why I knocked him down to "solid starter" status.

The Results

Since 2007, Jerry Reese has scored 29.32 points total. Divide this by the number of draft picks (31) for a final score of 0.946

For comparison (I'm not going to list tables for these teams because that's tedious/long) here are the values of 3 teams who are often lauded for their drafting prowess. Note: Also subjective, but I tried to be as fair as possible, so you will have to trust me (that or do it yourself and compare):

Philadelphia:  33.08/36 = 0.919

New England: 34.97/40 = 0.875

Baltimore:  28.70/30 = 0.957

For these, it is important to again stress the subjectivity of this. I was able to get a pretty good grasp of Philadelphia players, but for Baltimore and New England (aside from the names that I knew) I looked down the depth charts for each to assign values.

With this system, I'd say around 0.9 is the upper echelon. All four of these teams fit into this category. New England suffers because, while they have found quality players (Sebastian Vollmer, Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, etc), they have a huge quantity of picks and many of them were cut, which hurt them in this ranking. 

Also, Ozzie Newsome is awesome.

FanPosts are written by community members. This is simply a way for community members to express opinions too long to be contained in a comment.

Comment 209 comments  |  6 recs  | 

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I should probably explain the formulas for the negative values in the table

“val” mean value of the pic for example of first round pick is worth 1. So a 1st round cut performance means -4 divided the value assigned ( in this particular case it is 1)…which is -4

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 12:00 PM EDT reply actions  

Hey Ed Ought to Post this as a main thread

as a competing model. To avoid some subjectivity, I’d try to link some of these categories to some “unbiased” measure like whether the person made the Pro Bowl or is has been a consistent starter for X games. Given Alford’s injuries, why is he a bust?

by Maryland Fan on Sep 13, 2011 12:10 PM EDT reply actions  

So Reese is a good soild GM, that anyone with a brain can figure out

to me the thing that separates him from the three teams you mentioned? Luck.

Eagles- where would they be without Michael Vick? In no way could I think they’re better then the Giants if Kevin Klob is their QB and not Vick. But they took a risk and it obviously has panned out as Vick appears to be a real weapon

Patriots- I mean, how can you get any more lucky then having Tom Brady? The guy’s pretty much a machine. Also lucky is having a guy with severe neck/back problems like Gronkowski be basically injury free. They have a great system there, at least on offense which is surprising considering their coach is Belicheck

Ravens- lots of things here. Really could stop at Ray Lewis, he’s basically unchanged from the 1996 version. Amazing. Also a few other big time lucky draft picks. Haloti Ngata has got to be the toughest to game plan for defender in the game. How a 6"4 350lbs man who runs basically a sub 5.0 40 lasts to the 11th pick, I have no idea. Same goes for Terrel Suggs. He should’ve went top 3 in that draft but fell cuz of a 40 time? The man’s certifiable.

Maybe Reese got lucky with JPP and Nicks falling to our picks. Having Tuck and Osi here before he became GM. I dunno. But it just appears some extreme luck is really what gets in our way from being a true top team like we showed in 2008.

And considering its the Giants, having no luck is to be expected.

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Sep 13, 2011 12:13 PM EDT reply actions  

yes, we won a SB

but I’m talking about the continued success that the Patriots and Ravens have had. The Eagles continued success is debatable sine Vick was flavor of the month last year, so lets see this year.

Tyree’s catch is not the luck I’m talking about at all.

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Sep 13, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

that is silly

of course there are lucky moments and lucky plays, and teams can get lucky picks (Dan Marino??) but you can’t build a franchise on luck.

Take Brady. Yeah its luck to find a HOF QB in the 6th round. But there is no luck in always having OL to protect him, knowing what kind of guys to surround him with (WR/RB) etc

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 13, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dynasty QBs are hard to find

and to think that they slipped to the third or sixth round (Montana and Brady) means even the teams that drafted them didn’t know what they had. In a word, luck. But yes, even those guys needed other great players around them, not all luck.

by Maryland Fan on Sep 13, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

you can't say these teams didn't know what they were getting...

part of the strategy with the draft is finding those value guys in the later rounds. That’s what separates average drafts from great drafts. Teams know where guys are going to fall around (i.e. pick, rd.). It’s their job to see where these guys are being prioritized. However, when your on the clock, that’s when you make the call. These guys are being prioritized WELL in advance and the teams who can see the little things in guys’ resume/film to say if they’ll be bad, good, or great get the best piece of the pie after the draft is over.

In Reese We Trust

by jmark82 on Sep 13, 2011 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

you're missing the point

I didn’t say the entire franchise is built on luck. I’m saying the reason why the Patriots, Ravens and Eagles, the teams BBI mentioned are so good is cuz of some very lucky situations.

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Sep 13, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

agreed, tho id say the ravens are in same boat as us

As you mentioned, its been reese and newsome who has been the only ones that have been able to find steals in many rounds of the draft with limited draft picks.

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

No love for Pittsburgh

who does better at UDFAs and rejects than they do?

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 13, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Very true

To err is human.
To forgive is divine.
Neither is Marine Corps Policy.

by Big Blue in tx on Sep 13, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I disagree about luck

Luck is what happens when you are prepared, thinking ahead and not responding to every crisis like Dr. Strangelove is launching ICBMs.

Its not lucky that we didn’t trade a draft for an old WR

Each of these teams has continually brought in more good players than their peers (I’d include Pittsburgh too)

Vick may be the flavor of the month, but he gives them 3-4 years minimum to draft and develop a replacement. I’d bet that is all they were hoping for when they signed him. Get a good guy, know he can keep you from going to oblivion and keep on drafting and re-tooling.

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 13, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

the luck being discussed is these teams got the players they got, sure

but the players panned out way beyond any expectation you’d have for them considering how they got there. The players I mentioned had no business being where they were and going where they went, and in the case of Vick he wasn’t supposed to be what he is now.

I never said these teams would suck without their luck. They’re all well run organizations. But in a few instances they’ve been extrememly lucky with how a few stars are what they are, and that’s why these teams are what they are.

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Sep 13, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd say that yeah, Pats don't win 3 Super Bowls without Brady

But they weren’t lucky to find him, they actually scouted him (I think the Chargers were the only other team)

And that he could step on to a team stocked with star defensive players that wasn’t luck

I’ll bet that if you looked carefully at top teams, you’ld see that kind of luck often. Good guys dropping to them in the draft. An UDFA that fills a key role.

To me they get lucky, because they are so good at doing what they do, that they winnow the decision making down to very good choices. Its the only way to explain the depth of talent on the good teams.

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 13, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Any player that slips to the 6th like Brady

and turns out the way he did is a lucky break for that team. The Pats saw some talent, but that’s it.

by Maryland Fan on Sep 13, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

I see it this way

In round 6 picking player 175, you don’t have any slam dunk choices out there

EVERY guy is a project out there. So it boils down to, do you see something you can work with. When you look at what Brady did at Michigan, its a wonder he didnt get drafted much earlier. The guy was a winner and he had pretty fair arm strength for a kid.

So is it luck? I don’t know. But it seems funny that some teams have all the luck and others none at all.

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 13, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

“I’m a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more luck I have.”
-Abe Lincoln

"Oh sir, the Giants of New York took on the Packers of Green Bay. And in the end, the Giants triumphed by kicking an oblong ball made of pigskin through a big "H". It was a most ripping victory."

by jcalafiore on Sep 13, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Love the quote.
Thomas Jefferson though

"The nerve of certain youngins running their mouth.
Until [the Eagles] win something major, I don't want to hear it."
-the Facebook mayor of East Rutherford

by pataroons on Sep 13, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

another good one

“Luck is the residue of opportunity and design.”

I always thought Branch Rickey said it, but apparently it came from John Milton, a 17th century poet.

by IRememberRocky on Sep 13, 2011 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Make sense Rickey was quite erudite

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 14, 2011 8:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yup

Glad i missed this argument about Luck, cause luck has nothing to do with it at all. “Luck” is just what people use to explain things when their minds cant really grasp the fortunes of others or themselves.

Those players worked hard and their accomplishments and the teams accomplishments are a result of hard work, plain and simple.

You might consider picking Tom Brady to be luck but is Tom Brady working his ass off luck?…….it is what it is, luck is not a valid explanation to anything.

Peyton May Have The Wins!!
But Eli Will Have The Rings!!!

Skydiving?Forgot your parachute? TUCK AND ROLLE! On fire? TUCK AND ROLLE Got shot? TUCK AND ROLLE Lost your car keys? TUCK AND ROLLE Failed that history test? TUCK AND ROLLE.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SuCwrZrNQM&feature=related

by Blue Gates on Sep 13, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

not really

In life there are predicted odds of every different scenario. Things a person can control like preparation aren’t attributed to luck. Things like freak injuries, fumble recoveries, the other team making a mental mistake at a key time, gusts of wind screwing with field goals, etc. Those things are attributed to luck. If there was no luck the better team would always win.

A lucky team would succeed at something uncontrollable more often than the mean %.

Luck shouldn’t be used as an excuse for talent and hard work, but luck does exist.

by B-rod24 on Sep 13, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

The argument is

that the better team always does win.
100% of the time.

"The nerve of certain youngins running their mouth.
Until [the Eagles] win something major, I don't want to hear it."
-the Facebook mayor of East Rutherford

by pataroons on Sep 13, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

how about... the PATs are "lucky" they didn't wait too long to pick him

…even though they fully knew Brady was a future HOF quarterback who would lead them to 3 Super Bowl rings in the first half of his career.

(if that’s not “good fortune”…
       then I need the number of the psychic-phone-network they’re using up in NE?)

by NY17NE14 on Sep 13, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right

If you analyzed every draft pick in the last 20 years you could probably attach a probability of success for every pick range. Hypothetically lets say 20% of first round picks become stars. It seems like Pitt generally succeeds significantly greater than what these odds are.

You can call it luck or you could call it skill but you cant argue that they find success at a rate much greater than the mean.

by B-rod24 on Sep 13, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

not really

they were lucky Brady fell to them and panned out. Bledsoe also got hurt, so maybe he doesn’t get hurt and you never hear of Tom Brady.

Suggs and Ngata had no business going where they went, the Ravens were lucky.

Its luck.

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Sep 13, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

im not arguing with you

Though there is a difference in saying “they’re lucky brady fell to them and panned out” (which is basically saying they’re fortunate that they found such a great guy) and “Brady becoming an all-pro QB is due to luck”.

Team X was fortunate that Future all-pro player was available at #1 in this draft instead of some high risk/high reward player.

Player X was lucky that the 60 yard hail mary with 0 seconds left on the clock was tipped into his receiver’s hands

there’s a huge difference.

by B-rod24 on Sep 13, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Was it luck that the Ravens didn't pass on Ray Lewis like all those other teams

Luck usually implies that the recipient wasn’t skilled, that it could happen to anyone. So yeah, all teams get lucky, all those teams that passed on Brady were lucky, cause he was just as available in round 5.

The only team that acted on their luck was the Pats. So were they lucky, sure. But luck without skill usually just means wasted opportunity. When teams get lucky it’s usually a result of superior preparation.

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 13, 2011 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's not luck

I think your using the word luck as in good fortune, ie things turned out well

As opposes to the more common usage:
Luck being when good things happen not by design but by chance.

All teams that do well have had good luck as in things turning out well. What I’m saying is that their luck is as a result of the way they operate, that it isn’t fluky or just happenstance. What I see is good FOs have luck all the time, because they constantly make good decisions. Not all work out, but it puts them in position to appear lucky.

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 14, 2011 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

fortune is luck.

and everyone does their homework. SOme pan out, others don’t. Some pan out and the guy’s just a good player. Others pan out and they’re HOFers. That’s luck.

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Sep 14, 2011 8:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Eagles

They didn’t get to sign almost every notable free agent this year because of luck. Taking a shot on a pro bowler that is also the best running quarterback in history as your backup doesn’t seem like much of a gamble to me.

by BigBabyJesus on Sep 13, 2011 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

er..yea, that was a big time gamble

its only not in hindsight. Vick wasn’t good at all with the Falcons and no one knew if a 30 year old Vick would lose a step or 2.

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Sep 13, 2011 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

How much stock

do you put in a team’s win/loss record being attributed to the QB? Because the Falcons with Vick did not have a very impressive roster on either side of the ball. Yet they won alot of ball games. Won some playoff games, too. Including in GB, first time ever.

I think he was as close to a one man team as is humanly possible in such a team game.

I will be at the season opener NYG @ WAS with a few friends. If you are going and feel like looking up a fellow BBVer and having some fun, let me know.

Sunday, Sept. 11 2011 NYG 23 WAS 13

by tommy d. on Sep 13, 2011 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

How about Andy Reid

He is the definitive number 1 QB guy of the last 10-15 years. So it’s a shocker that a guy with Vicks physical talents has been a star there.

No, no shocker there. The Eagles could get “lucky” cause they know they have Reid. If the Giants had signed him or even worse the Bills, Vick might be a huge laughingstock. Just think Mike Vick getting coached by Sullivan.

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 14, 2011 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'd say the QB out of all 11 players accounts for the most of a win loss record on offense

but not enough to call them one man team. The Falcons had some pretty good players.

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Sep 14, 2011 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

I just looked up the Falcons rosters since Vick was drafted.

They did have some decent players scattered throughout the team. One great one on offense besides Vick, and that was Warrick Dunn. Maybe Kerney as a DE was great for 2 years. Brooking was very good.

The Falcons records back then were unimpressive or bad except for 2004 when they went 11-5. Otherwise it was 8-8, 9-6-1, 5-11.

No one is a one man team, and I think I viewed Vick as closer to that back when he was with the Falcons then he actually was. Until I did some quick simple research. :-)

If I am being negative please, don't let it fool you, I am an optimist at heart and I can prove it.

by tommy d. on Sep 14, 2011 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re Belicheck and Brady

Two way street with Brady. They developed him and were smart enough to see what they had and committed to him right away. He’s a great coach. A human sponge that takes all the best of other coaches and implements it into his system.

Go Giants!

by ronjohnson on Sep 13, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah,

listening to Brady’s post game interview, and to hear him describe how the offense adjusts to the defenses weaknesses. It just reminds me how often that offense there changes to attack defenses week to week, or how it changes over seasons to maximize their players strengths.

And then I think about how it seems to me Gilbride just keeps running the same plays over and over, every year, with little innovation.

And I really hate it when we get down 1 score and then abandone the run. Just another variable that opposing coaches can predict, and plan for.

I will be at the season opener NYG @ WAS with a few friends. If you are going and feel like looking up a fellow BBVer and having some fun, let me know.

Sunday, Sept. 11 2011 NYG 23 WAS 13

by tommy d. on Sep 13, 2011 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Welcome to WCO Boosters

That’s why 75-85% of the teams in the NFL run a WCO. It’s flexible, it’s aggressive, and it lends itself to game planning. Why we use a variation of the vertical offense that was popular in the 70s is beyond me. It’s true that we have done well with it, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t do better with a WCO variant.

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 14, 2011 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

I never thought of myself as a WCO Booster.

But I think I always have been.

If I am being negative please, don't let it fool you, I am an optimist at heart and I can prove it.

by tommy d. on Sep 14, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Better to be Lucky

then to be good

Self-praise is for losers. Be a winner. Stand for something. Always have class, and be humble.
-John Madden

by Willgfass on Sep 13, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Everyone has luck

Maybe I read this wrong but idt all of the Eagles success is luck. Many teams would love to have our FO.

Apologies if I read this wrong

"There is no struggle too vast, no odds too overwhelming, for even should we fail, should we fall, we will know that we have lived.--"Anomander Rake, Son of Darkness
Evil is relative…You can’t hang a sign on it. You can’t touch it or taste it or cut it with a sword. Evil depends on where you are standing, pointing your indicting finger. -Glen Cook The Black Company

by Udalango on Sep 13, 2011 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sigh I just read the rest of this thread

disregard this comment

"There is no struggle too vast, no odds too overwhelming, for even should we fail, should we fall, we will know that we have lived.--"Anomander Rake, Son of Darkness
Evil is relative…You can’t hang a sign on it. You can’t touch it or taste it or cut it with a sword. Evil depends on where you are standing, pointing your indicting finger. -Glen Cook The Black Company

by Udalango on Sep 13, 2011 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

haha

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lol It sucks to type out a response like that

cause it doesnt show you the rest. smh

"There is no struggle too vast, no odds too overwhelming, for even should we fail, should we fall, we will know that we have lived.--"Anomander Rake, Son of Darkness
Evil is relative…You can’t hang a sign on it. You can’t touch it or taste it or cut it with a sword. Evil depends on where you are standing, pointing your indicting finger. -Glen Cook The Black Company

by Udalango on Sep 13, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hear yah

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Excellent rebutal thread.

The other one was way too narrow with it’s grading, IMO.

I will be at the season opener NYG @ WAS with a few friends. If you are going and feel like looking up a fellow BBVer and having some fun, let me know.

Sunday, Sept. 11 2011 NYG 23 WAS 13

by tommy d. on Sep 13, 2011 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

They got plenty to lose

Like chemistry in the locker room, and 15 more games.

Bringing in Randy Moss or T.O. would be tantamount to shooting this team in the leg, and we didn’t like that much the first time did we?

by Raptor22 on Sep 13, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am actually in a state of panic! Just bought PSL off of a friend.

I have been buying half season tickets from the Mets for the last 5 years and nothing good has come of it and now if the Giants don’t have a descent season I don’t know what I will do with myself. It is my problem for being an idiot and spending all my money on sports tickets.

by ajdurk4mets on Sep 13, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Who cares?

well looking at how many people commented on the first post and how this one looks so far… I would say alot of people care

Team TAWD:
The entire 53 man roster of the 2011 New York Giants

by The Always Well Dressed... on Sep 13, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you dont care why join the conversation

I’m not trying to pick on you, but I think what makes this place great is that its a bunch of basically nice people that care a ton about Giants football.

Add in Ed’s efforts and growing skills as a journalist

And you have what I think of as the best Cyber Tavern for Giants Fans out there.

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 13, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

reply above for ajdurkmets

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 13, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

I figured that

Team TAWD:
The entire 53 man roster of the 2011 New York Giants

by The Always Well Dressed... on Sep 13, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ahhh Cyber Tavern

That’s great.

what makes this place great is that its a bunch of basically nice people that care a ton about Giants football.

Well put.

"The nerve of certain youngins running their mouth.
Until [the Eagles] win something major, I don't want to hear it."
-the Facebook mayor of East Rutherford

by pataroons on Sep 13, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thank you

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 13, 2011 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Randy Moss in NY would be a disaster

Can you imagine him and TC in the same locker room. No thanks. TO is having money problems that’s why he still plays don’t want him anywhere near the Giants.

by Late for Dinner on Sep 13, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

YES, because If they can't fix the OL

Don Hutson and Jerry Rice wouldn’t matter

Eli has to have more time to do his thing, scan think throw. If they protect him, Hixon, Cruz and the others will seem fine, maybe a lot more than fine

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 13, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Couldn't agree more.

Oline Oline Oline. They could lead us to a championship.

I will be at the season opener NYG @ WAS with a few friends. If you are going and feel like looking up a fellow BBVer and having some fun, let me know.

Sunday, Sept. 11 2011 NYG 23 WAS 13

by tommy d. on Sep 13, 2011 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

one game

steelers looked worse.

Yes, I am a Giants fan. Now that we got that out of the way....
IMPEACH DOLAN!!!!
I will not - lose! -Jay Z-
Missing BBVers:
Simms-McConkey
Step Up and Make Big Plays
Blue Gonz

Have you seen them? :(

by wilddre22 on Sep 13, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's right.

Though they did face stiffer competition.

I will be at the season opener NYG @ WAS with a few friends. If you are going and feel like looking up a fellow BBVer and having some fun, let me know.

Sunday, Sept. 11 2011 NYG 23 WAS 13

by tommy d. on Sep 13, 2011 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

true

Yes, I am a Giants fan. Now that we got that out of the way....
IMPEACH DOLAN!!!!
I will not - lose! -Jay Z-
Missing BBVers:
Simms-McConkey
Step Up and Make Big Plays
Blue Gonz

Have you seen them? :(

by wilddre22 on Sep 14, 2011 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

the only thing i disagree with is

1. Adam Koets last yr was VERY good . The Giants O was slammin on all cylinders prior to him going down. My point is he, IMO is a proven commodity, as per him being resigned.

2. Bryan Kehl is a starting LB for another team, so how does his rating affected by that?

As always great work BBI

I may not be the most noble of men but in a town of lepers, im the one with the most fingers.

Giant LB'z SUCK!!? Mark Herzlich, Greg Jones,Spencer Paysinger...Maybe not..

by Troy O on Sep 13, 2011 12:18 PM EDT reply actions  

for kehl, we cut him, so for whatever reason he didnt produce as a giant

Unfortunately that counts.

Koets..i had either in the back up category or the injured category I went with injured because I’d rather play it more pessimistically

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

thumbs up for pessimism

better then homerism.

I may not be the most noble of men but in a town of lepers, im the one with the most fingers.

Giant LB'z SUCK!!? Mark Herzlich, Greg Jones,Spencer Paysinger...Maybe not..

by Troy O on Sep 13, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I thought cutting him was a mistake at the time

We kept some other LBz that we have since cut. I am not disagreeing with your scoring, just really don’t see him as a bust.

All the Giants should play like Mark Bavaro.
Tom Quinn Must Go!
It is equally worthless when people are always optimistic or always pessimistic. Either way I take their opinion with a pound of salt because I know they only have one setting. I post my own thoughts, not what either side wants to read.

by UnknownJintsFan on Sep 13, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Blackburn and Wilkerson

Sounds like TC to me (vet vs rook)

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 13, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the reminder

I was against keeping Wilkerson and that proved out.

I wish we still had Kehl. The rookies we have are great but Kehl would still be great to have.

All the Giants should play like Mark Bavaro.
Tom Quinn Must Go!
It is equally worthless when people are always optimistic or always pessimistic. Either way I take their opinion with a pound of salt because I know they only have one setting. I post my own thoughts, not what either side wants to read.

by UnknownJintsFan on Sep 13, 2011 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, he probably isn't as good as Jones long term

But for right now, he’d be a nice stop gap for Goff’s injury

Flip side is he probably costs Herz his spot

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 13, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

BBI question on two players

Jay Alford, seems like he would fall under the injured pessamistic range, since he basically blew his knee out in pre season and never came back from that. and also Michael Johnson, who seems would fall under the 3rd stringer/depth player, he did stick for 3 seasons and played a lot.

by Late for Dinner on Sep 13, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree on Alford

and Johnson too

Team TAWD:
The entire 53 man roster of the 2011 New York Giants

by The Always Well Dressed... on Sep 13, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

on both, I basically looked at the fact that after multiple seasons

They couldn’t crack a key backup role and their p play fell off though I agree that you could definitely look at it on the way you posed

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Alford

I thought he was the main long snapper for FGs or punts (can’t remember which one) in 2008
It wasn’t until 2009 when he got hurt, that Zak did both duties

Team TAWD:
The entire 53 man roster of the 2011 New York Giants

by The Always Well Dressed... on Sep 13, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm pretty sure he was one or the other

the injury was made a bigger deal cause Zak had to pull double duty but he is very good at it

Team TAWD:
The entire 53 man roster of the 2011 New York Giants

by The Always Well Dressed... on Sep 13, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

yep

Alford then was listed as the backup LS before he got cut

"Oh sir, the Giants of New York took on the Packers of Green Bay. And in the end, the Giants triumphed by kicking an oblong ball made of pigskin through a big "H". It was a most ripping victory."

by jcalafiore on Sep 13, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah he did one or the other

than was hurt in the preseason 09 vs the Jets.

What the heck is it with DLine injuries and preseason games vs the Jets?

Self-praise is for losers. Be a winner. Stand for something. Always have class, and be humble.
-John Madden

by Willgfass on Sep 13, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

since you're being pessimistic

at least we know you’re a realist.

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Sep 13, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

haha

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

well done.

I may not be the most noble of men but in a town of lepers, im the one with the most fingers.

Giant LB'z SUCK!!? Mark Herzlich, Greg Jones,Spencer Paysinger...Maybe not..

by Troy O on Sep 13, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Luck

That does count for a lot. Brady, Vick, Montana (going in the 3rd). Sometimes it builds a dynasty.

by Maryland Fan on Sep 13, 2011 12:19 PM EDT reply actions  

it does

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Funny thing about Montana

Was Bill Walsh really wanted Phill Simms, and when the Giants took him, he settled for Joe.

by Late for Dinner on Sep 13, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

But he had Montana as 2nd best and likely to be drafted in 3rd

That’s why he didn’t take him right away, not luck, skill

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 13, 2011 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

If he really thought Montana was going to be as good as he was

there is no way he would have gambled that someone else didn’t see in him what he saw. Better bet is that he thought he was a good QB, but not worth spending a 1st or 2nd pick on.

by Maryland Fan on Sep 13, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yup, or he of course would have taken him sooner

I will be at the season opener NYG @ WAS with a few friends. If you are going and feel like looking up a fellow BBVer and having some fun, let me know.

Sunday, Sept. 11 2011 NYG 23 WAS 13

by tommy d. on Sep 13, 2011 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

No one is able to see the future

All you can do is say he identified the two best QBs in the draft. Would have taken Phil if he was there with his first pick (1st in 2nd RD). And got Montana in the 3rd.

I think Phil would have equalled or surpassed Montana in SF. That’s the advantage of being a good player in a revolutionary offensive design (let’s not forget that Walsh was great at getting his OL together, so Phil would have stayed healthy)

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 14, 2011 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Internal Grading

It’s really difficult to get a read on draft success when only looking within one’s own team. Even bad teams have their own “solid starters”, “backups”, etc. In theory, you could be a last-place team that’s always got a losing record, a roster filled with lousy players, but achieve a high draft score IF you keep the players and they have a certain role on your team.

Maybe “team success” should also have something to do with the grading. If you become a “solid starter” on a 11-5 team, that’s different than being one on a 1-15.

This is also really tricky because of draft order. The risk of each pick increases the further you go down in the draft order – meaning, the #1 pick “should” be a high probability guy, whereas the #26 guy is more of a gamble…and so on down through the 7 rounds.

Regardless, great job BBI on putting this together, definitely good food for thought. Thanks for doing it.

by Pink Flamingo on Sep 13, 2011 12:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Those are all valid points. Which is why an "impact starter" is worth more.

From what I’ve noticed as well, many poor teams also bring in FAs that often win the jobs, and these don’t account for those…which results in their draft picks being cut (thereby those poorer teams having a lower score)

This is most certainly not refined, and I’ll certainly try and think of ways to improve it.

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure that grading injured guys is fair for a GM

At some point we have to cut the GM slack and say that’s a mulligan. But its not like you make those grades very important. I might pull them from the evaluation all together.

On that note, I might track number of injured draft picks compared to the rest of the NFL. If your GM is consistenly using top picks on fragile players that can be a problem.

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 13, 2011 12:31 PM EDT reply actions  

It isn't fair, which is why I, like you mentioned, minimized the penalty for it.

Still, though, I didn’t want to reward the GM and give a slight penalty (in case of drafting injury prone peeps)

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

here you go

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 13, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

whoops

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Reese

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 13, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Reese is a home grown product

He is really a prodigy of Geroge Young, mentored by Ernie Accorsi. His drafting is a lot more George Young Style than Accoris’s. he does not trade a lot and drafts BPA; that’s George Young’s style, fustrating yes, but it has proven results.

by Late for Dinner on Sep 13, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

thanks andi haha

god mobile commneting sux. Internet on comp is crappin out

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nice work Ed

Did you come up with this system yourself? If so you should do something with it. Maybe show it to your SBNation chiefs and see if you can’t perfect it (if it isn’t already) and have some other chiefs evaluate their teams as well since they know them better than you. You might have something here.

To err is human.
To forgive is divine.
Neither is Marine Corps Policy.

by Big Blue in tx on Sep 13, 2011 12:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Crap! My bad BBI!

Same comments still apply. Nice work!

To err is human.
To forgive is divine.
Neither is Marine Corps Policy.

by Big Blue in tx on Sep 13, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nice Job BBI!

Not to give you any more work, but I would have liked to see Pittsburgh’s numbers as well. IMO drafting has a lot to do with the organization, many teams don’t try to build through the draft on a consistent basis like the Giants. I feel that JR has done a decent job in trying to get true value for your picks. I use teams like New England and Pittsburgh to gauge it by. These teams are always in the playoffs. It has a lot to do with luck, skill and personnel!

by oldschoolblue64 on Sep 13, 2011 12:54 PM EDT reply actions  

a couple people mentioned pitt

I’ll do their figures later on today.

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Taleb's Black Swan

Anybody read it? Great book, all-time classic.

To the point – there’s a lot in that book that’s useful when talking about luck, odds, randomness, etc.

Makes a LOT of sense when thinking about the NFL Draft.

by Pink Flamingo on Sep 13, 2011 1:02 PM EDT reply actions  

I think its a pretty good system

but I think there’s an inherent bias against the Pats. Its hard to say they draft worse just because they stockpile the picks with the intention of heavy cutting. Maybe its better to take a look at just those who make their rookie 53? Also – its hard to say much about the system until you know what the league average is. Should it be normalized to 0? Those injury scores will take a toll unless 0 is the “average” Sorry to sound critical. It’s great work – very interesting – would love to see you take the calculation up a notch.

by CrzyMke on Sep 13, 2011 1:04 PM EDT reply actions  

There's definitely some problems with it - I just came up with it this morning haha

as far as the bias…I think there’s a bias on not just the Pats, but rather, teams with high amounts of draft picks in general. The reasoning for this is I wanted to focus more on the scouting and research aspect…who can take their draft picks, and get the most quality out of them. The Pats and Eagles approach works too….amass a large amount of draft picks and then take fliers on a bunch of peeps and see who stick…but (and this my bias), I don’t see the refinement in that.

As far as the injury scores go, I haven’t found a way to refine that bit. I sort of stuck them in slots where I thought they should be…however, I know that that is an imperfect solution because they must be treated differently.

As far as the league average…I’ll see what I can do, it took me close to 20 minutes per team to get a figure. Also, it would be my perspective on how these players would be slotted. I might try and do a few more to get a larger sample size over the next day or two though.

Anybody could do their own analysis of a team as well…they have all the parameters…all they’d need to do is slot each player in one of the categories and add.

Thanks for the advice, though…much appreciated.

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

haha, no way!

Thats why I put this in:

Anybody could do their own analysis of a team as well…they have all the parameters…all they’d need to do is slot each player in one of the categories and add.

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hmmm, Well

How about getting some of the more intelligent people on BBV to take a few teams each?

by Maryland Fan on Sep 13, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think that's a reasonable bias though

It emphasizes the strategic value of accumulating draft picks. No matter how good you are at evaluating talent, it’s still a crapshoot, made even riskier by the injury factor. The more picks you have, the more mistakes and injuries you can afford.

by Tucker Fredrickson on Sep 13, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ha – yea – I’d volunteer to do a division if i knew anything about teams outside of our own. I like these sorts of projects because Football is so subjective and doesn’t lend itself well to easy stats – there’s always a little bit of insight when you see something that sticks out in the numbers.

by CrzyMke on Sep 13, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

you confirmed what I said in the other JR thread

BB gets too much credit. He’s done quite well with a Scott Pioli team and having one of the greatest QB in the HISTORY of the game. Since he became GM in 2009 much of what he’s done is the media glorifying his drafting. He trades down. He accumulates many picks. For that he’s considered a draft guru. However, how many superstars has he drafted? Bradshaw, Nicks, Ham and JPP are arguably better than anyone BB has drafted.

by GMen56-11 on Sep 13, 2011 1:25 PM EDT reply actions  

Superstars

are not the idea, though. He trades out of the first round precisely because he’d rather diversify the risk and get more versatile role players who fit his system.

Even last year, look at what he did with the 2 rookie tight ends. That’s smart drafting in my book.

Do the Pats have flaws? Yeah. But the trade off is BB has them in contention every single year with no dropoffs. And the Brady thing is overblown, because they were, what, 11-5 with Matt Cassel?

by Pink Flamingo on Sep 13, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hi, BigBlueIntervention...

This is your boss. Please see me in my office….

"The nerve of certain youngins running their mouth.
Until [the Eagles] win something major, I don't want to hear it."
-the Facebook mayor of East Rutherford

by pataroons on Sep 13, 2011 1:58 PM EDT reply actions  

...uh oh...

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ed

I like your scoring system but you forgot to add a category.

Perennial Pro-Bowler/Potential HOF. If you give that 3.5 or 3 multiplier then NE and Phi and Baltimore beat us. Those are the players that are really good and make the others around them better. My assumption is you put the likes of Mayo and R. Rice in the same category as Nicks and AB.

Reese hasn’t drafted any of those players yet. …but the scoring is much better.

A GM also does FA signings so that should be looked at as well. That is where I think Reese has failed by paying too much or not acting.

Please get Phil Simms in the Hall of Fame

by The Curse on Sep 13, 2011 2:00 PM EDT reply actions  

FA Signings

As well as trades.
The Trade for Reynaud and Sage probably would receive a negative score.

"The nerve of certain youngins running their mouth.
Until [the Eagles] win something major, I don't want to hear it."
-the Facebook mayor of East Rutherford

by pataroons on Sep 13, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

good point

Please get Phil Simms in the Hall of Fame

by The Curse on Sep 13, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

BBI not Ed

It's OK we don't want anybody on the Giants bandwagon it's faster without all the dead weight!

by bleedblue12 on Sep 13, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nice Job, BUT

… The success of any player drafted is largely dependent on his coachability and the coaching staff of his team. The Pats, Ravens, and Steelers, etc are such perennial contenders because they have a system that works, that is not too complicated for players to learn, and encourages the player to bust his butt for the coach. It is also an attitude that infuses the whole organization. Brady was a 6th round choice, so what? Belichik and his coaches took whatever talent they saw, harnessed it and put him in a system which allowed him to grow and become the best QB in the game.

My point: it’s not so much who you draft, it’s the coaching of that player that largely determines his success and brings out his skills.

Marfar

by marfar on Sep 13, 2011 2:21 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Pats system

is complicated. Look at Ochocinco right now. His head is spinning.

And it does count for who you draft.

The Pats cut/get rid of players that have a crap attitude. Not anybody can play for them. You are making it sound like that other teams are so good that they can turn someone like Dillard into a Ray Lewis.

That’s just silly.

My Wife is a Patriot's fan...

by Giantssincesix on Sep 13, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

I recked you marfar.

The players drafted are mostly raw materials. It is up to the coaching staff to get the most out of this talent. There is also the onus on the player to adapt and improve.

Sometimes you see draft “busts” flourish with another team after washing out with the team that drafted him due to coaching/scheme issues.

"Filling a need doesn’t necessarily mean you’re getting a good player," said Schwartz. "It doesn’t necessarily mean that you’re getting a player that best fits; it doesn’t necessarily mean that you’re getting a player that’s better than what you have already."

by NorthLeft12 on Sep 14, 2011 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Comparing to other teams

While luck may play a tiny part in the success of a draft class (just like we got lucky when Prince fell to us at 19), I think the bigger issue affecting the success of your draft picks has to do with coaching. Bellichek & Reid are able to get the more outta their players (on a consistent basis) compared to TC. Specifically Bellichek, he makes it very easy for young guys to contribute by giving them limited & specific responsibilities until they’ve mastered them. Then he slowly adds responsibilities as the player progresses. Same thing with Andy Reid. Is it any coincidence that EVERY SINGLE QB that has played in that system has been successful? No, that has to do with coaching.

In contrast, only once have I heard TC limit a players responsibilities in order for that player to feel more comfortable & grow. That was Eli’s first season when they reduced the playbook to stuff that Eli liked & felt most comfortable with. When they did that, Eli put up 30 pts (in a 3pt loss) against Pitt, 22pts a 1pt loss to Cincy & 28pts in a win vs Dallas. Much better results than the 14, 10, 6, 7, 14 pts from the previous 5 games.

Nobody wins the Superblow in September.
Talk is Cheap! Play the Game!

by 1giantlion on Sep 13, 2011 2:24 PM EDT reply actions  

bellichek

he doesn’t really get more out of players than TC. I posted in the other thread that the majority of their draft picks of the last 4 drafts (not counting 2011) are no longer on the team. In 2006 (if i remember correctly) the only player to have an impact in their draft class was Stephen G (dont feel like spelling his last name) their kicker.

by B-rod24 on Sep 13, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Somehow

they’re good every year, without fail. They lose Brady and still go 11-5.

The “getting more out of players” part is sort of apples to oranges – I think we’re looking more at BB vs. JR in terms of draft quality. BB vs. TC is a different question.

One could argue that TC has to get more out of draftees because he has fewer of them to deal with. BB brings in 12 guys and keeps the ones that are self-starters. TC maybe has to work harder to turn them into something…interesting question.

by Pink Flamingo on Sep 13, 2011 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just think no matter how many draft picks you have

a large portion aren’t going to pan out because of a variety of issues.

BB does a great job developing players, but his developmental success odds per draft pick isn’t so significantly better than TC or other coaches who routinely find themselves having winning seasons.

by B-rod24 on Sep 13, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

TC and BB are excellent coaches with long track records.

As a GM, BB finds an edge with giving himself more stones to turn over. He has 12 chances to find a winner, where other teams have 7 chances.

by Pink Flamingo on Sep 13, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly. The patriots let a BUNCH of their draft picks go.

You look at beyond their 3rd round picks, and they have nowhere near the success rate as the Giants. However, they have had a number of quality of players…as many as the Giants. Nothing wrong with keeping the creme of what you draft….its just with JR/TC they are more confident in more of their draft class than the Patsies are.

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

or maybe

they’d have an even better score if they were able to keep all 12 picks every year.

“apples to oranges…” They players that got drafted are the same players that get coached & succeed/fail. Success isnt dependent on being drafted or not

Nobody wins the Superblow in September.
Talk is Cheap! Play the Game!

by 1giantlion on Sep 13, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right

the UDFA success rate is a whole other metric to look at…maybe BBI will take that one on in the offseason. :)

by Pink Flamingo on Sep 13, 2011 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

im not talking about UDFAs

im saying that being drafted or not doesnt affect you success. You need a lot of other things to fall into place for you to be successful. You need a good coaching, you need to stay healthy, you need an opportunity to prove yourself, etc

Nobody wins the Superblow in September.
Talk is Cheap! Play the Game!

by 1giantlion on Sep 13, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also

It’d be interesting to know how many players drafted by certain teams, but are cut, go on to have careers with other teams.

You might find that players drafted by the Pats, Giants, Steelers, etc., have a higher chance of sticking in the league than players drafted by the poorer drafting teams…be interesting to find out…

by Pink Flamingo on Sep 13, 2011 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

actually

i think that number is probably a lot lower than the success rate of UDFAs. Might not even be worthwhile b/c it would be so few. The likelihood is that if you cant make it with one team, there is very little chance you’ll make it on another. unless its a matter of not getting enough opportunities, a player isnt going to become a NFL caliber player just b/c he switched rosters.

Nobody wins the Superblow in September.
Talk is Cheap! Play the Game!

by 1giantlion on Sep 13, 2011 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

System Fits

are also a major factor, similar to the coaching aspect.

Who knows if Clint Sintim wouldn’t be a star right now if he had been drafted by a 3-4 team that from Day 1 just set him loose to rush the passer?

You can draft good players, but the context into which they’re drafted is a big deal. You draft press corners, but then your defensive coordinator wants to start playing zone, and now your drafting prowess doesn’t look so hot when the players are bad fits for the system.

Tricky I tell ya!

by Pink Flamingo on Sep 13, 2011 2:36 PM EDT reply actions  

that's one of many aspects that effects player development

how about coaching personality? Some players can only perform if they’re motivated the right way. Jamarcus Russell could have been a very very good quarterback. The problem is he was used to being babysat in college by his coaches/ support system. In college he had a lot of discipline and structure. He gets into real life/NFL and fails because he isn’t being watched 24/7.

Other players can’t handle a high level of discipline and need to be coddled.

by B-rod24 on Sep 13, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

True

A player might go to a team where he really clicks with the coaching staff; other times there are personality differences, and those intangible issues play out for the negative. There are a lot of variables that come into play.

But somehow we see that some teams are successful year after year. They understand who they are, what kind of system they have, and what kind of players they are looking for.

I suspect it starts way at the top, with ownership – if they are committed to having a stable environment, giving the coach and GM a lot of latitude, they are more likely to be successful in the long-term than the teams that are constantly hiring, firing, reinventing, etc.

by Pink Flamingo on Sep 13, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's got to start with ownership

success trickles downward. Successful owners know who to hire as coaches

You wont ever see coaches have close to a 100% success rate developing players but great coaches will always have more success relative to the rest of the league. I think that’s why certain teams are always near the top.

by B-rod24 on Sep 13, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

No coddling in the pros

That means that player will fail.

I.E. Pacman Jones. Jerry even had body guards to keep him from getting into trouble and somehow he did, by punching his own bodyguard.

My Wife is a Patriot's fan...

by Giantssincesix on Sep 13, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jamarcus, Pacman

would’ve failed everywhere.

But just like any job, there are going to be personalities and relationships involved that can have an effect. Players and coaches are human, it’s hard to know how much of a factor that element is, but hard to argue with the success some guys have when they leave an organization and suddenly blossom somewhere else because they’re in the right environment.

Maybe Devin Thomas will be that for us, who knows?

by Pink Flamingo on Sep 13, 2011 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Let's give him a shot

He played well in preseason. I would like to see him in the slot this game.

Why is Tom Quinn still here? I loves me some Coach Clawfin.

by costanza! on Sep 13, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

System Players?

This isn’t Duke Basketball.

Proffesional players that play at a pro level are expected to know and learn all skills that are required of them at that position. Rarely is there a complete player drafted and does everything even at average. You have no idea if that player will develop until you develop them.

Sintim’s problem were his injuries which hampered his development. He could have very well learned to be an OLB in a 4-3.

And press corners in college would be called for pass interference in the pros. Completely different rules. That is a knock against Prince.

My Wife is a Patriot's fan...

by Giantssincesix on Sep 13, 2011 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes.
Proffesional players that play at a pro level are expected to know and learn all skills that are required of them at that position.

I think this is a core concept of the Giants draft strategy. The key issue is that it takes time even for talented players to develop into who we want them to be. The problem is that many of today’s fans expect instant gratification and want to kill Reese/TC/ when players don’t contribute fast enough for them.

Also a good point about injuries affecting development. I tried to make much the same point about Sintim and Beckum back during camp and pretty much got killed for it.

I think we need to realize that Prince is not gonna be any kind of savior for us this year. When he does get back, he still has everything to learn. If we can make it to the playoffs (a big if at this point) he might be able to make a difference. Not holding my breath though

by BleedBigBlue on Sep 13, 2011 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Playing to Strengths

All due respect, totally disagree.

a. Teams run systems that are very different. West Coast Offense requires different skills than a mauling run attack. Specialization is increasing, not decreasing.

Players have certain strengths and weaknesses – some, in fact, have a combination of huge strengths and huge weaknesses that will render them capable of only playing within certain types of systems. They will be perfect fits for some systems and terrible fits for others.

c. Drafting should involve matching your system needs with players who fit what you are doing.

by Pink Flamingo on Sep 13, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

That Bold Part

should be “b.” Somehow the formatting got screwed up…

by Pink Flamingo on Sep 13, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you draft that way

You are going to fail as a GM.

Look at someone like Carolina’s Steve Smith. He was clearly a player that fit in a certain system coming out of college and only had a certain skill set. He turned out to be something much much more.

Find me a team that has zero man to man corners and zero press corners and just zone corners because it fits their scheme.

Doesn’t exist.

My Wife is a Patriot's fan...

by Giantssincesix on Sep 13, 2011 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wrong

Why do the Giants load up on pass rushing DEs? Because of the 4-3 they run and how it requires a big pass rush from the front 4. Why do they skimp on LBs? Because their system emphasizes DL and DBs. Why do they avoid drafting receiving TEs? Because their system doesn’t emphasize throwing to the TE. Why do most teams no longer draft FBs at all? Because their system doesn’t require them.

And on and on.

If all you do is draft square pegs that you try to fit into round holes, you will fail as a GM.

by Pink Flamingo on Sep 13, 2011 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Underlying Skills

is another issue – and this is where we might find common ground.

For example, if you’re the Giants, you might see a talented guy who played DE in a 3-4, so at first blush he’s not a fit. Maybe you even feel he was somewhat miscast within his college system. But when you analyze his skill set, you find that he projects best as a 4-3 DT.

In cases like that, of course you would draft the player – he’s not a direct system fit, but you see that he projects well within the prototype you have in mind for that position.

Unless we’re really misunderstanding each other here, I would think the notion that teams draft players that project to fit into their systems would be indisputable.

Another example: The Eagles would not draft a Brandon Jacobs-type RB – and they’re not going to grab one and try to teach him to fit the Westbrook/McCoy prototype RB their system requires. But might they find an underused guy with a pass-catching skill set that was misused within a power running attack, and draft him? Of course.

by Pink Flamingo on Sep 13, 2011 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with what you are saying

and I do not see it as a counter to my argument.

Just because you draft a pass rushing DE it does not mean that DE is not capable, taught, or expected to stop the run.

All skills for a position are still taught and expected to be learned.

And as a GM if there is a very talented running back who doesn’t fit your system, i’m pretty sure they will draft that running back over the one that is not so talented but does fit your system.

And GMs generally do not draft FBs because you can generally get them as UDFAs. There required skill set is pretty small.

My Wife is a Patriot's fan...

by Giantssincesix on Sep 14, 2011 8:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think too many points are given for players drafted after the fourth round.

in my mind any player picked after the fourth was a stroke of luck. In the case of the Eagles, if Reid had any inkling of how good Trent Cole was going to be then why take the chance and pass on him six times before taking him. The same goes for a player like Bradshaw. Also , if you are judging the drafting skills of a GM shouldn’t you factor in the drafting costs of a player for example Barden actually cost the Giants a 3rd and a 5th.

I'm not drunk I'm just drinking.

by no1pipelayer on Sep 13, 2011 4:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Well...yes. But luck is definitely a factor here, no?

You’d definitely consider Trent Cole or Ahmad Bradshaw as grand theft draft picks. GMs should be rewarded for that. At the same time, its is expected that 1st rounders are solid starters or better. If not, you basically are punished with marginal gain.

I have not figured out how to factor in draft day trades, though you are right, it does make an impact. The system is designed for only relating draft pick success to where they were drafted.

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's not luck

Drafting AB or Cole in the first would have been stupid. Why? Cause no one was going after those guys till later. Think about draft picks as currency, 1st round pick is worth $1M, 2nd = $100K and so on.

Are you saying spend the big bucks on guys that you think might not even make the roster? No. You have to spend the big $ picks on the players that you are more certain about AND are unlikely to last.

Clearly you have to do a good job at sorting those high demand players. But you won’t last long taking flyers on guys cause you see something that might make them stars. Da’Rel Scott is a great example. Great 7th rounder, 3rd rounder not so much.

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 14, 2011 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pittsburgh Steelers

33.4ish. Divide that by their 35 picks and I came up with 0.9546

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 4:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Biggest helpers for them were Antonio Brown in the 6th, Mike Wallace in the 3rd

as well as connecting on all of their 1st round picks and most of their 2nd rounders.

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Statistically the 1st and 2nd rounders tilt the balance

Somewhere around 50-60% of Pro Bowl players come from 1st two rounds. Every bust in those rounds hurts more cause you’re losing the likely pro bowlers. When you get an AB in the 7th it’s a HR cause it’s like an extra #1.

If Ross were playing up to his draft status, Giants would probably have made the playoffs the last 2 years.

"That's mostly fans who say that kind of stuff and they really don't understand the process. We have good players on the team. We're not looking to go out and make every sexy splash that can be made. We make solid football decisions. That's been happening for a long time," Reese said

by trueblue63 on Sep 14, 2011 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

Is this some sort of joke

Make your own system with your own spins and VOILA… Jerry Reese, the GM of the team who hasn’t made the playoffs ion the past 2 seasons, and failed to address huge key positions this year, and he’s rated better than all the other teams GMs….

Boley, Canty, Rolle…. Taking up all the money, and average NFL starters at best

JoeD AKA The Voice Of Reason

by Joe_D on Sep 13, 2011 4:40 PM EDT reply actions  

LOL

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Sep 13, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

You realize you're putting your own spins on it too right

Parker was making a ton of money up until recently. But I guess you can say that was our old GM. but still

"There is no struggle too vast, no odds too overwhelming, for even should we fail, should we fall, we will know that we have lived.--"Anomander Rake, Son of Darkness
Evil is relative…You can’t hang a sign on it. You can’t touch it or taste it or cut it with a sword. Evil depends on where you are standing, pointing your indicting finger. -Glen Cook The Black Company

by Udalango on Sep 13, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

What spins are there, exactly? Everybody was graded using the same formula.

And the Giants did not fare the best. Both Pittsburgh and Baltimore beat them out, and if you actually paid attention, I admitted that this was slightly biased against teams with a large amount of draft picks. The Eagles fared slightly worse than the Giants, mostly because you guys had a larger amount of draft choices that you had to cut. I also admitted several times that this was subjective and not perfect.

Nor did I say this was an evaluation of the GMs OVERALL, just how well they were drafted. This DOES NOT include contracts, draft trades, or free agent signings.

C’mon Joe D, you’re better than that to put me on blast without even reading it properly.

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I should’ve known. jerk.

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like this as a little look into it

but there is a lot more to being a good GM than just hitting on your picks.

"There is no struggle too vast, no odds too overwhelming, for even should we fail, should we fall, we will know that we have lived.--"Anomander Rake, Son of Darkness
Evil is relative…You can’t hang a sign on it. You can’t touch it or taste it or cut it with a sword. Evil depends on where you are standing, pointing your indicting finger. -Glen Cook The Black Company

by Udalango on Sep 13, 2011 4:42 PM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, I saw this as strictly how a GM performs in the draft, not overall.

It is useful because the playing field with other GMs is pretty level.

by Maryland Fan on Sep 13, 2011 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I read the other one

liked this better. The other one seems a lil off. Its kinda mean but BBV is always kinda negative.

"There is no struggle too vast, no odds too overwhelming, for even should we fail, should we fall, we will know that we have lived.--"Anomander Rake, Son of Darkness
Evil is relative…You can’t hang a sign on it. You can’t touch it or taste it or cut it with a sword. Evil depends on where you are standing, pointing your indicting finger. -Glen Cook The Black Company

by Udalango on Sep 13, 2011 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

TBH its almost baffling

how negative some of you are. I mean damn reading certain people you would think you guys are the Raiders/lions.

"There is no struggle too vast, no odds too overwhelming, for even should we fail, should we fall, we will know that we have lived.--"Anomander Rake, Son of Darkness
Evil is relative…You can’t hang a sign on it. You can’t touch it or taste it or cut it with a sword. Evil depends on where you are standing, pointing your indicting finger. -Glen Cook The Black Company

by Udalango on Sep 13, 2011 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

idk at the end of the day its all tough love anyway...we root for the same team.

kind of gets frustrating though to sift through thread after thread of peeps barking at each other.

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

yep


that’s just the way it is.

by BleedBigBlue on Sep 13, 2011 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Reese is a good GM

Like I said before, how many good GMs you know have won the Superbowl? He has made some questionable moves but he shouldn’t be evaluated until the season ends. It’s not reasonable to judge him this season based on one game.

Greg Jones will bring it and serve notice in the NFL

"Hello...you play to win the game."

by TrueBlue777 on Sep 13, 2011 5:06 PM EDT reply actions  

this is a much better list

than the other guys

The artful muppet formerly known as KrmtDfrog.
Please read my sardonic wit and over-blown sense of self over at headkicklegend.com

by Cory Braiterman on Sep 13, 2011 7:38 PM EDT reply actions  

much better

better criteria, better metrics.

I still think Alford was a victim of injury and depth at the position. He was a good player as a rookie.

by blumag on Sep 13, 2011 7:51 PM EDT reply actions  

+1

Alford was really playing well before the injury.

"Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue."

by ct17 on Sep 13, 2011 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm surprised Reese doesn't get more credit for the 2008 draft...

    I think people tend to think of 2007 as “the big draft” and 2008 is pretty much brushed off. He got four starters in the first five picks that year – Phillips, Thomas, Manningham and Goff. And these guys were all starters on a 10-6 team last year, but all were expected to start again this year. If you get four of your front 22 in ANY draft, I think you call it a home run, if you have a team that’s above average.

by Cranky50 on Sep 13, 2011 8:53 PM EDT reply actions  

YES

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 13, 2011 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

this

I will be at the season opener NYG @ WAS with a few friends. If you are going and feel like looking up a fellow BBVer and having some fun, let me know.

Sunday, Sept. 11 2011 NYG 23 WAS 13

by tommy d. on Sep 13, 2011 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

The failure of both of these analyses

Is that less is expected of a 7th round pick. A 7th rounder cannot really be a bust. You could also have a perfectly good 7th rounder but too much strength at the position. Robert Henderson has bounced around the league for years, given lots of chances, but here he lost the last DE spot to Kiwi.

"Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue."

by ct17 on Sep 13, 2011 10:33 PM EDT reply actions  

Pardon my candor, but this rating system is ridiculous. Who cares whether a good player came low or high in the draft? The point simply is how many good players came from the draft. It doesn’t matter if the first four picks or the last four picks became quality starters. It only matters that four picks became starts. I could see giving a little bonus for getting a starter out of a low pick, but hardly four times the value of a successful first round pick. That complete distorts the results. The first row of your table says it all—in the last four years, our draft has only produced two impact players. That’s never gonna get the job done.

by hopeforthefuture3 on Sep 14, 2011 11:39 AM EDT reply actions  

Pretty much agree

I don’t have the time to read every comment so apologies if I am repeating but…

Without the ten points assigned to Ahmad Bradshaw, Reese’s rating would fall to .644. Should one 7th round pick really propel him into the category of New England, Baltimore, etc. Not to say Reese isn’t in that category, I am just not sure I like the way he got their in this formula. Also, I think their is alot of subjectivity in applying the category they fall into… so if I only ranked Bradshaw as a solid starter, then Reese’s rating would fall to .816, which would be below the other GM’s rankings.

A for effort. But I don’t think the original statistic/measurement works.

by CervezaVerde on Sep 14, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

I guess I'll respond to both you and hopeforthefuture

You both have valid criticism, which I’d like to address

Who cares whether a good player came low or high in the draft? The point simply is how many good players came from the draft. It doesn’t matter if the first four picks or the last four picks became quality starters… I could see giving a little bonus for getting a starter out of a low pick, but hardly four times the value of a successful first round pick.

That was the entire reason for this exercise. You only have one 1st round pick (at most, I’ve seen 2 first rounders). If you read the preview before the table you should have seen this:

As a disclaimer, these numbers are completely arbitrary. They are numbers that I picked because they made sense to me. Let me explain: Ahmad Bradshaw is not 4x better than Hakeem Nicks. But its 4x more impressive that Jerry Reese found a comparable player in the 7th round.

The whole point was looking at where Reese found quality. That’s ONE aspect of good GM’ing….not the ONLY aspect. I already said this wasn’t to assert that Reese was a good GM, just a good drafter that was able to find quality at all points of the draft.

The first row of your table says it all—in the last four years, our draft has only produced two impact players. That’s never gonna get the job done.

An impact starter as defined by me is a top 10 player at his position. I’d like to see more than 2 or 3 players from a 4 year draft class that’s done that. Solid starters is a more apt comparison. Reese found 12 starters in that 4 year span.

Also, I think their is alot of subjectivity in applying the category they fall into… so if I only ranked Bradshaw as a solid starter, then Reese’s rating would fall to .816, which would be below the other GM’s rankings.

I ranked all of the other teams the same way. So if they had a late round gem, they were awarded appropriately. Also, I’ve acknowledged that this is completely subjective.

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 14, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Do you see my point though re Bradshaw changing a .644 to a .946?

That weighting is just too much. One good 7th round pick shouldn’t make or break a GM.

by CervezaVerde on Sep 14, 2011 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

To take it a step further

Look at the Jets. Their GM used 1st round picks on C Mangold, T Ferguson, CB Revis and TE Keller. All would be impact starters on the chart. Mangold, Ferguson and Revis have made the ProBowl. Those 4 picks would be worth 10 points, the same as one 7th rounder in Bradshaw. How can finding Bradshaw in the 7th round be considered as impressive as 3 ProBowlers and a stud TE? I can understand some bonus points there but I don’t think each progressive round should add so much extra points. After all, its important to draft well high because thats who you pay more money to. 7th round picks that make the team are just icing on the cake. The cake is baked in round 1-3.

by CervezaVerde on Sep 14, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why do you penalize the Eagles for acquiring value for players who leave?

Not taking a dig, but isn’t it Reese’s fault he didn’t acquire picks for Boss or Smith and players like that when they leave?

in that order.

by metseaglesknicks on Sep 14, 2011 4:41 PM EDT reply actions  

This was simply based on drafting, and how well the player turns out. For example,

Bryan Kehl would be between a starter and key backup for the Rams, but in this exercise, he was cut, so we lose points even though he’s a good player because he didn’t produce for US.

For the Eagles, I measured the same way I did the Giants…draftees and my best guesstimates on how they turned out for the Eagles. This was not meant to be an analysis on how efficient a FO is, just how well they do drafting players.

Team Greg Jones
Team Jerry Reese

by BigBlueIntervention on Sep 14, 2011 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

actually

we’ll get compensatory picks for these guys. But they were UFAs that we fully expected to resign until some freakish stuff happened.

Nobody wins the Superblow in September.
Talk is Cheap! Play the Game!

by 1giantlion on Sep 15, 2011 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

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