Should the Giants draft a RB? (repost)

by pataroons on Apr 28, 2011 1:27 PM EDT

Follow the jump for a few things of note in regards to the prospect of drafting a Running Back in the first round of the 2011 NFL draft:

Note: This is a repost from a few months ago, so you may have already read it. For everyone else, I hope it's insightful, Enjoy the draft tonight!

1) A list of the running backs drafted in the 2007 draft after the Giants passed over them at pick #20... (this, of course, was the year the Giants selected Ahmad Bradshaw as the last RB taken in the draft):
Kenny Irons, Chris Henry, Brandon Jackson, Lorenzo Booker, Tony Hunt, Garrett Wolf, Michael Bush, Antonio Pittman, Dwayne Wright, Kolby Smith, Thomas Clayton, Justise Hairston, DeShawn Wynn, Nate Ilaoa, Kenneth Darby.

2) Here are the running backs they passed over in the 2005 draft, when they selected Brandon Jacobs in the fourth round (keep in mind, this year they also picked up Ryan Grant as an UDFA):
J.J. Arrington, Eric Shelton, Frank Gore, Vernand Morency, Ryan Moats, Maurice Clarett (remember him?!?), and Marion Barber III.

3) A list of Running backs taken in the second half of the first rounds from 2001-2010 (to give you an idea about what quality of back are typically available/taken in this situation):
2001- Deuce McAllister (23) and Michael Bennett (27)
2002- William Green (16), T.J. Duckett (18)
2003- Willis McGahee (23), Larry Johnson (27)... (not a bad list considering the Giants drafted William Joseph)
2004- Steven Jackson (24), Chris Perry (26), Kevin Jones (30)
2005- none
2006- Laurence Maroney (21), DeAngelo Williams(27), Joseph Addai (30) (followed by LenDale White and Maurice Jones Drew in the 2nd Round- DAMN!)
2007- none
2008- Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall (23), Chris Johnson (24)... (can you believe Johnson was drafted 24th?! Thank God Jerry Jones had a man-crush on speedy Felix that year!)
2009- Donald Brown (27), Chris "Beanie" Wells (31)
2010- Javid Best (30)

4) In 2010 the top three running backs in terms of rushing yards were: Arian Foster (UDFA, 2009), Jamaal Charles (3rd rd., 2008), and Michael Turner (5th Rd., 2004)

5) The top 15 rushing teams in 2010 were: KC, Oak, Jac, NYJ, Phi, NYG, Hou, TB, NE, Minn, Pitt, Atl, Car, Balt, SD. All but three of these teams were in the top 15 in terms of offensive line run blocking, including 9 of the top 10 (this information is from footballoutsiders.com, which has an 'Adjusted Line Yards' formula that they use to calculate the performance of an offensive line).

side note: Mark Ingram, Mikel LeShoure, and Ryan Williams are among the 2011 prospects projected to go in the early parts of the draft.

Conclusion: Although I find this information very interesting, I'm not sure any definitive conclusions can be made about what the Giants should or shouldn't do at pick # 19. I have made a few conclusions of my own, which may be disputed as they are not born out of any statistical analysis, but out of my casual observations:

1) No one here, including myself, know which player is the right choice at #19. Furthermore, most GMs clearly don't know who is the right choice.

2) It is possible to find a successful running back in the later rounds of a draft (or even as a UDFA).

3) The success rate of drafting a running back falls significantly through the later parts of the first round, and into the second round, where it becomes seemingly indistinguishable.

4) The success of a running back is so intricately tied to the performance of an offensive line, that you might as well focus on shoring up that area of the offense (which is, in itself, an inexact science), before drafting (and sacraficing) the next Javid Best (Detroit rated the worst offensive line in Run Blocking).

5) A running backs 'life-span' in the NFL is shorter than most, if not all positions, thus reducing the value of the pick.

6) Tom Quinn should be fired.

My take: The Giants should take a RB only if they feel very confident that they have a sure thing. Considering the Giants' first round drafting habits since they failed miserably on Ron Dayne, I'm sure this will be the case. If they are even remotely concerned about the Offensive Line, that should be as much of a priority.

Poll

Where are you watching the draft tonight?

On my buddy's flatscreen

8 votes

From a barstool

4 votes

in my parents basement

3 votes

I'll be checking my cellphone from the restaurant that my wife is dragging me to

1 votes

Who watches the draft?

1 votes

17 votes | Poll has closed

FanPosts are written by community members. This is simply a way for community members to express opinions too long to be contained in a comment.

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Comments

my personal opinion

is that the Giants should target a scat-back who can return and catch out of the backfield. We still don’t know what will happen with Jacobs and Bradshaw. Should they both return, we’ll have a complimentary 3rd back. If they don’t return, we have a new piece to add to our arsenal. With the uncertainty on what’s going on with FA and the salary cap, it feel it wouldn’t be wise to draft a back with the same skill set as AB and BJ, especially early.

Big Boob View

by pataroons on Apr 28, 2011 1:31 PM EDT reply actions

and thanks for reading

I hope I didn’t waste anyone’s time re-reading this fanpost- the goal was to post it for anyone who might have missed it, considering it was written several months ago.

Big Boob View

by pataroons on Apr 28, 2011 1:32 PM EDT reply actions

i think they should

but obviously not in first. if they can find another late round wonder like Jacobs and Ahmad have been, thats fine by me. Draft a 6th, 7th round RB, let him ride pine for 2-3 years, and hopefully we’ll have another BJ or AB on our hands.

by Plaxico Burress on Apr 28, 2011 3:24 PM EDT reply actions

Ingram, Ryan Williams, or Delone Carter

I will be happy with any of these three. Where’s the option for buddies watching it on MY flatscreen, in my den/basement?.

Your First Ever Pinstripe Bowl Champions- The Syracuse Orange

by bigbluethruandthru on Apr 28, 2011 4:07 PM EDT reply actions

I would be happy with Delone

I watched him a lot in college and was at the Pinstripe bowl, he is a beast

by Squali21 on Apr 28, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Preferably not in the first 2 rounds

3 even.

But if one has to be drafted, I hope its Shane Vereen

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Apr 28, 2011 6:01 PM EDT reply actions

thinking Shane will be gone before we pick in the 3rd

I may not be the most noble of men but in a town of lepers, im the one with the most fingers.

by Troy O on Apr 28, 2011 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Rorsh-

I actually hadn’t researched Vereen until you mentioned him. He looks like a great fit the way he can catch out of the backfield, and the way he uses his blockers may work well with the Giants’ scheme. Any other info on the guy? What makes you think he would be a good pick?

Big Boob View

by pataroons on Apr 28, 2011 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions