Comp Picks Predicted for Giants

by ct17 on Mar 10, 2011 4:38 PM EST

For those of you not obsessed with the draft, you may not be familiar with the work of AdamJT13. He is, as far as I know, the only person that has ever done original work to figure out the method the NFL uses to award compensatory draft picks. Since his blog is quiet this year, I decided to use the information he posted to make my own educated guesses about comp picks.

And lo and behold, it looks like the Giants should get 2 picks! I believe that we will get a 5th rounder for Fred Robbins and a 6th rounder for David Carr. In the worst-case scenario we should get a 6th and 7th.

Both players are eligible for consideration because they were unrestricted free agents that were not cut by the Giants. Salary is the primary factor in determining value, followed by playing time. Robbins signed with St. Louis for 3 years / $12 million, which is right on AdamJT13's borderline of 5th/6th round value. The fact that Robbins started all 16 games should give him a 5th round value. Carr signed with San Fran for 2 years / $6.2 million, which is in the middle of the 6th round value segment, which should give us breathing room because Carr only played in one game.

And now we give Reese a pat on the back. You lose a potential comp pick if you sign an eligible player during the free agent signing period, which last year ended on July 23. We signed Keith Bulluck on July 24. This timing saves us the Carr pick, as Bulluck's $1.1 million salary would have taken off the lower of our two picks.

No other players figured in the comp plan equations. Ineligible players were as follows:

Kevin Dockery - non-tendered RFA

CC Brown - non-tendered RFA

Practice squadders - no rights

Bryan Kehl - cut

Danny Clark - cut by new team (Houston)

Jim Sorgi - cut by Colts

Deon Grant - cut by Seattle

Antrel Rolle - cut by Arizona

Shawn Andrews - cut by Philly

Brian Jackson - cut by Jets

Jamon Meredith - cut by everybody

Devin Thomas - cut by Carolina

Michael Clayton - cut by Tampa Bay

FanPosts are written by community members. This is simply a way for community members to express opinions too long to be contained in a comment.

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Comments

so Reese knows what he's doing?

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Mar 10, 2011 4:42 PM EST reply actions

so it seems

2011 Draft - NY Giants

1st) Marcel Dareus
2nd) Patrick Peterson
3rd) A.J. Green
4th) Akeem Ayers
Trade Darius Reynaud to Eagles for their 5th round pick.
5th) Mark Ingram
6th) Anthony Castonzo
7th) Mike Pouncey

by BigBlueIntervention on Mar 10, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions

lol

Don't let my support confuse you, I am in fact a fan of the Giants.

by tito (eight and oh) on Mar 10, 2011 4:50 PM EST up reply actions

can you explain exactly what a comp pick is?

are they picks at the end of that round? So after all the other teams do their normal slotted picks the giants (and anyone else with a 5th round comp pick) will select a player from the remaining pool? Is that correct?

How do they order the teams that have the same round comp picks… for instance if the Giants and 4 other teams have 5th round comp picks, what order do they take them?

Also… if this is the case… why isn’t this discussed waaaay more often? This seems rather important? Also… can you trade comp pick as if it was just any regular draft choice slot?

wow, lots of questions… thanks in advance for any info.

by Matt dubs on Mar 10, 2011 4:45 PM EST reply actions

Comp picks are at the end of the round, so yes you would be correct in that the Giants pick would be after the Packers’ pick at the end.

The order is based on your win-loss record I believe, but not too too sure on this one.

It isn’t discussed because no one really knows what value they’ll bring in, as a comp pick can be anywhere from a 3rd to a 7th. And no, comp picks are completely untradeable.

2011 Draft - NY Giants

1st) Marcel Dareus
2nd) Patrick Peterson
3rd) A.J. Green
4th) Akeem Ayers
Trade Darius Reynaud to Eagles for their 5th round pick.
5th) Mark Ingram
6th) Anthony Castonzo
7th) Mike Pouncey

by BigBlueIntervention on Mar 10, 2011 4:47 PM EST up reply actions

when do they decide their value? It must be some point leading up to the draft, whether its months, weeks, days, minutes… idk. In an age where every tiny detail is scrutinized to the n-th degree, i’m surprised that espn, etc doesnt at least project the level of comp picks they expect teams to get.

which raises another quesiton… who decides the values? some random committee?

by Matt dubs on Mar 10, 2011 4:51 PM EST up reply actions

They should be releasing the picks around the beginning of April if my memory serves me correctly

I do think it is kind of weird for ESPN not to predict it, it seems like they could make it into some sort of segment or something. It sucks for mock drafting because you have to add these suckers in and it screws you up something fierce.

The NFL decides the value and they use a “secret” formula based on contract, playing time, and postseason performance. No one knows what this formula is though.

2011 Draft - NY Giants

1st) Marcel Dareus
2nd) Patrick Peterson
3rd) A.J. Green
4th) Akeem Ayers
Trade Darius Reynaud to Eagles for their 5th round pick.
5th) Mark Ingram
6th) Anthony Castonzo
7th) Mike Pouncey

by BigBlueIntervention on Mar 10, 2011 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

Answers

The picks are announced at the end of the league meeting (NFL & franchises), which is usually around the end of March. So I should have done this sooner. But it is done by the league office. No one knows their mathematical formulas, but teams know the general rules (players do not qualify if cut, one signed cancels one lost, the Bulluck exemption as indicated above). AdamJT13 analyzed all of the free agent moves and comp picks awarded since the beginning of comp picks (90’s sometime), and created his own formulas. He has not shared them (don’t blame him).

Don’t know why this is not discussed more, not why no one else does it. It is very important. Cardinals lost a 3rd (from Dansby) by signing Rex Hadnot. Seahawks only team as wise as us, they signed Chester Pitts on July 26, preserving their probable 4th from losing Burleson.

As you can tell, I’m working on a league-wide estimate as well.
The order of comp picks in each round is even more complicated. For example, Haynesworth’s large deal did not give Tenn the first comp pick. Player performance may be more heavily weighted there.

"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun."

by ct17 on Mar 10, 2011 6:15 PM EST up reply actions

dumb question

wouldn’t cutting a player qualify them as an unrestricted free agent? I’m sure you’re right, but can you explain why exactly Antrel, et al don’t factor in?

2011 Draft - NY Giants

1st) Marcel Dareus
2nd) Patrick Peterson
3rd) A.J. Green
4th) Akeem Ayers
Trade Darius Reynaud to Eagles for their 5th round pick.
5th) Mark Ingram
6th) Anthony Castonzo
7th) Mike Pouncey

by BigBlueIntervention on Mar 10, 2011 4:45 PM EST reply actions

Yes, they are UFA

And the same rules apply to signing them as if their contract expired. But they generate no comp pick. The idea is to compensate the teams that could just not afford to resign their players. Might have been a big market-small market idea. But if you cut them, it is your own fault. So Rolle give Ariz no pick, while Dansby could have.

"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun."

by ct17 on Mar 10, 2011 6:19 PM EST up reply actions

this is AdamJT13's blog and it gives a good explanation...this is him predicting 2010 comp picks

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2010/03/projecting-2010-compensatory-nfl-draft.html

2011 Draft - NY Giants

1st) Marcel Dareus
2nd) Patrick Peterson
3rd) A.J. Green
4th) Akeem Ayers
Trade Darius Reynaud to Eagles for their 5th round pick.
5th) Mark Ingram
6th) Anthony Castonzo
7th) Mike Pouncey

by BigBlueIntervention on Mar 10, 2011 4:52 PM EST reply actions

Giants aren't getting squat

Antrel Rolle is going to cancel everything out.

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/

by JimmyK on Mar 10, 2011 4:55 PM EST reply actions

Hmmm, I might be wrong on that. Not sure how it works if you sign players that were cut, although I know you don’t get credit for players you cut.

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/

by JimmyK on Mar 10, 2011 5:00 PM EST up reply actions

yeah a little confused by what eligible and ineligible players are

2011 Draft - NY Giants

1st) Marcel Dareus
2nd) Patrick Peterson
3rd) A.J. Green
4th) Akeem Ayers
Trade Darius Reynaud to Eagles for their 5th round pick.
5th) Mark Ingram
6th) Anthony Castonzo
7th) Mike Pouncey

by BigBlueIntervention on Mar 10, 2011 5:06 PM EST up reply actions

er...

shush.

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Mar 10, 2011 5:14 PM EST up reply actions

Saw your post on this on BGN

Your edits were right. You’ll get two 7ths, from Sean Jones and Jason Babin. Marlin Jackson did not count as a signing because he was an untendered RFA.

"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun."

by ct17 on Mar 10, 2011 6:21 PM EST up reply actions