Brady, Manning, or Manning?

by Max Schwager on Oct 10, 2011 11:55 PM EDT

Prior to the start of the 2011 season, one New York quarterback caught a lot of flak for placing himself amongst the sacred two: Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Now, I would argue this class should now (or soon) include Aaron Rodgers, but I digress. It takes a lot to put one's name in the conversation of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, in the conversation of six MVP awards, four Super Bowl wins (with five appearances), and numerous other accolades I won't bother mentioning. Mark Sanchez and David Carr have not made this leap of faith, understandably so.

I present, the younger, less marketable, less everything, Eli Manning. Has he arrived? His claims, outlandish as they may be, deserve a look.

2011: Tom Brady is 34, in his 12th season. Eli Manning is 30, in his 8th season.

Brady: 133/196 (67.9%) for 1,874 yards (14 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 0 fumbles)

Manning: 104/164 (63.4%) for 1,486 yards (11 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 4 fumbles)

Brady is coming off of his second MVP. Eli has been to one Pro Bowl, and is coming off a 25 interception season. However, one thing to note is that Eli has taken fourteen sacks this season, to Brady's eight. While the argument can be made that Brady takes less sacks because he gets rid of the ball faster, it is also clear to see (in watching the games) that Brady plays with much better pass protection. Still, in a year that Manning is off to his fastest start (as indicated by a quarterback rating of 102), Tom Brady is still breaking records, starting the year throwing for more yards in five games than any other quarterback has in history. Granted, Brady is not short on weapons, but neither is Eli.

However, the Patriots enjoy, through five games, the league's 9th best rushing attack (122.8 ypg) while the Giants are ranked a mere 24th (87.5). This is further indicative of the Giants blocking woes, and also, points to Eli's numbers being all the more impressive. No respect for a team's running game makes passing more difficult. Not to take away from Brady's accomplishments, but the balanced attack of the Patriots has certainly helped him put up mind-boggling numbers.

Eli Manning is in his 8th season. Tom Brady's 8th season was quite the stat line, that season being the one of the mythical 18-0 run the Patriots had, perhaps the only thing that could possibly overshadow Brady's accomplishments, breaking Peyton Manning's single season touchdown record, amongst other feats.

Tom Brady: 398/578 (68.9%) 4,806 yards (50 touchdowns, 8 interceptions) 8.3 YPA

Eli Manning (on pace): 333/525 (63.4%) 4,755 yards (35 touchdowns, 16 interceptions) 9.1 YPA

While Eli's not looking to shatter any records, he's still on a great pace. Compare to Peyton Manning's 7th season:

Peyton Manning: 336/497 (67.6%) 4,557 yards (49 touchdowns, 10 interceptions) 9.2 YPA

Note that, while Eli's TD/INT ratio doesn't stack up entirely (though still, is not bad), his projected yardage and YPA stats are very good. I'd say the one glaring difference here is the offensive line. In 2007, Brady took 21 sacks. In 2004, Peyton was sacked just 13 times. Eli's been sacked 14 times in just five games.

Brady and big brother Peyton also had Hall of Fame weapons at their disposal:

Colts (2004):

Marvin Harrison 86/1,113/15 (rec/yds/TDs)

Reggie Wayne: 77/1,210/12

Patriots (2007):

Randy Moss: 98/1,493/23

Wes Welker 112/1,175/8

Giants (2011 projections):

Hakeem Nicks: 90/1,318/10

Victor Cruz: 61/1,235/10

I don't know if we'll see these numbers hold. I expect Nicks' numbers to be around those totals, but Cruz is very difficult to project. Still, Giants receivers are looking good so far. The only notable difference is that the numbers indicate the Giants' second receiver is not as reliable, with just 61 projected catches. This is fair, as Cruz is a second year receiver that, yes, has had his ups. However, he's had some down moments.

Back to the question. Is Eli Manning there yet? Not yet. Still, if he keeps up the pace he's on, maybe he's not really as far off as everybody thinks. If the offensive line has a chance to get healthy and solidify somewhat, we may see Eli finally emerge as elite. Considering the amount of baggage, if he hits his projections, I'd certainly say he justified his preseason comments, even if he's not matching two future Hall of Famers stat-for-stat across the board.

Prior to the season, I argued on the boards that Eli would throw 35 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. This was not well wishing on my part, but just my feeling that Eli, given his history, has the mental toughness to come back from a 25 interception season. I'm not far off thus far, but again, it's just five games. Still eleven games to go for Eli, for better or worse.

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Comments

My thoughts on Rodgers...

I said that I would put Rodgers in the same class as Brady and Manning earlier. Just to the point, I felt that Rodgers would have given the Packers a better chance to win the NFC championship game in 2007, and have advocated him starting for the Packers since he finished a game earlier for Favre earlier in the season, completely outplaying his predecessor.

As for Rodgers being great, I look at the guy and constantly make excuses. He has great surrounding pieces, or this, or that. But so have the other greats, and Brady and Manning are no exception. Rodgers just consistently makes all of the throws. Barring injury, the guy is (in my humble opinion), a HoF lock. And I know it’s very early to say that.

by Max Schwager on Oct 11, 2011 12:49 AM EDT reply actions

I agree

Most important thing

He has a coach that recognizes his strengths and plays to them. I’m envious of that, our coach has a system and expects the players to execute it. That’s a very powerful difference.

It’s already a wrap… might as well not show up tomorrow.

Football - It's Beyond an Addiction, It's a Way of Life.
by Eagladelphia on Sep 24, 2011 11:12 PM EDT reply actions

SEPT 25 - Giants 29 - Eagles 16

by trueblue63 on Oct 11, 2011 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions

this is huge

by Ualtar on Oct 11, 2011 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions

It seems the more success Eli has in the passing game

the more he has games like the Seattle one…tons of yards and TDs, but also too many INTs (I know all about the INTs, but they’re still there).

But its crazy to say that a 30 year old QB still isn’t a finished product and is getting better. I wish they’d help him and the OL out a bit more and start off early with some quick hitting stuff. Some slants, screens to AB when the DL is getting pressure. Also loved the look off the WR, throw the hot read to Ballard stuff. That sort of stuff is all around the league but the Giants just seem disinterested with the TE. I know Ballard is slower then molasses but I think he’s gotta be used more. I see almost no difference between him and Boss

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Oct 11, 2011 9:45 AM EDT reply actions

Indeed

Ballard is a Kevin Boss 2.0. Every time this guy makes a play it makes me think, “Kevin who?”

Yes, he hasn’t been great blocking, but Boss didn’t really establish himself as a decent blocker until he had a couple years of playing under his built.

I am not very upset about the INTs to this point. Five interceptions through five games isn’t terrible.

I agree that Gilbride never really plays to our strengths. He has a system, and that’s it. Look at how teams killed the Giants when we were blitz-heavy in recent years. Drew Brees ripped our defense to pieces, not by throwing bombs, but with quick slants.

But, I disagree on the point that a 30 year old quarterback is a finished product. Look at Tom Brady. The guy continues to get better just when everybody thought he was already the greatest QB in history. Last season, just four interceptions, at the age of 33. I’d say that was more impressive than his 2007 season. This year, he’s breaking more records.

Eli is looking better than he ever has during the regular season, and I think that’s a product of our talent developing and him developing familiarity with his weapons, but also, part of the development of his game. He’s been, for the most part, making much better decisions. Two interceptions in that game were not really his fault. The first was a tipped ball.

The second speaks to the ineptitude of our coaching staff. We’re under 1:30 and down two scores. Run a play, ball is caught inbounds, and we don’t burn one of our three timeouts. How do you play conservative with your timeouts, if you’re going to continue to attack downfield? If you’re going to admit defeat and run the clock out, just run it out. It seems to me, whether it be in the fourth quarter and we’re down with two minutes and the ball, or at the end of the half in the same scenario, Gilbride and Coughlin still opt not to use the timeouts. As as if they want to take them to the grave with them.

When we played Washington, the game was tied at the half. But we had the ball with :37 on the clock and three timeouts. Any other team in the league would have been trying to score, but not the Giants.

I think Eli will tone down the interceptions, and if he does, I don’t think it’s too crazy to say that he’s gotten better at age 30. But you raise some fair points, and he needs to finish out the season with some strong play, so we’ll see.

by Max Schwager on Oct 11, 2011 12:00 PM EDT reply actions

Overlooked

in all these comparisons of Eli with the elite is that he plays on a team that wants to run the ball more than anything. All the other top QBs play on pass first teams. Eli’s attempts are always way lower than these guys. If he threw it as much as they did, he would also pile up more yardage and TDs. But that’s not the Giants game. The one knock I do have against Eli is that his completion percentage has never been on par with the elite QBs. You could argue that Brady and Peyton get better protection or that they play in systems that maybe get rid of the ball quicker or throw higher percentage passes. But I do know that Eli has had some great O lines in front of him in the past and the benefit of a great rushing game in the past to take pressure off him and his WRs. So why the poor %? Perhaps he just is not as good as these guys?

by NYStateofMind on Oct 23, 2011 2:52 AM EDT reply actions