NFP: Never trust a draft 'expert'
by Ed Valentine on Mar 21, 2010 10:00 AM EDT
in News
79 comments
Since we are in the middle of our own mock draft, and since I want to tease you guys for a while before making my pick for our New York Giants, I thought you might get a kick out of this.
Jack Bechta of the National Football Post recently ran a post which basically says never trust a mock draft. Or, for that matter almost anyone who calls himself a draft expert. Wrote Bechta:
Now that the so-called draft gurus can watch players at the combine on TV and get their workout numbers instantly, it does help the evaluation process. But they still don’t get the type of information that NFL regional scouts and NFL teams can. They don’t get to see medical and training reports. They don’t get to interview the strength coach or even the position coach about the player. They don’t get to hear what other players are saying about him. The majority of scouting Web sites and services rely on second-hand information. Most don’t even have access to game tape.
He is right, by the way. The more I study the draft, and write draft profiles, the more judicious I am becoming in the reports I rely on. There are a slew of guys out there running draft sites who don't know nearly as much as many of the people who comment here.
Anyway, with all of that said. Let's get back to the business of our own mock draft. With the Giants up next here is a little poll for you. Not promising to listen to your opinion, but I am curious.
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WIthout revealing who I voted for :)
I think Sergio Kindle, and the fact he’d be a horrible fit with this team, should be subbed out for Brandon Graham.
Tisk tisk to you Ed for not including Trent Cole Graham on this list
Master of the squeegee
Graham
It’s funny. In all this time I have never even once considered Graham for the Giants. Still don’t.
by Ed Valentine on Mar 21, 2010 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Kinda obvious...,,
The guy weighs 268 pounds. He can certainly be a great NFL player, he might even be the next Elvis Dumervil for all i know…but that doesn’t fit with the Giants and their 4-3. Haven’t we watched Osi flail against the run enough to be sick of DEs who can’t play the run against NFL-caliber blockers? More Tuck, less Osi!!!
Brandon Graham is NOT Osi.
He’s 2lbs HEAVIER then Derrick Morgan.
Also, just like Morgan (and like Justin Tuck), Graham frequently lines up INSIDE, as a DT on passing downs.
Graham is excellent against the run too.
At 270lbs…he’s actually the 2nd heaviest DE on the team behind Tuck.
So uh…yea, More Tuck. Less Osi.
Which is EXACTLY, what Graham brings.
Master of the squeegee
by FreeBradshaw on Mar 21, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm with the minority on this one...
Graham is a REAL consideration, while Mays, Kindle, Davis and Pierre-Paul are a division lower.
I hope that other then Tony Davis (who I still like...)
the others are just irrelevant.
JPP could be the best player in the draft, he could be out of the league in 2 years. If the Giants were say…8-8 because Eli Manning was on IR, but the rest of the team was solid? I’d take him.
Kindle can be a great pass rusher…but he’s more like an Osi. Well…more like a Kiwi type, Kindle’s pretty good against the run, at least in space.
Mays…not going there.
Master of the squeegee
by FreeBradshaw on Mar 21, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
You bring up fair points
You’re 100% right on the weight on Graham. I had to go back around and do more reading on Graham, I had pigeonholed him incorrectly because of all the people talking about moving him to 3-4 OLB. After further reading, I don’t see why a guy who is supposedly not good in space is a good candidate for the OLB move. I also don’t see why Graham is a better choice for the Giants than Derrick Morgan. Both were highly productive players but Morgan is seen as a better athlete, is taller (we know the Giants like tall D-Linemen who can bat down balls at the line), and I love the commentary on Morgan’s excellent work ethic and intangibles. So bottom line, I was wrong on Graham being a bad pick for the Giants – but I still wouldn’t take him with Derrick Morgan on the board.
That's fine by me
I’m in no way advocating Graham over Morgan. To be honest, if both were on the board its a hell of a tough decision.
Morgan’s potential, given that he was highly productive and only a junior..probably means he’s a better pick.
Also, Graham is actually a better athlete. Morgan is probably more of a physical specimen,
The Graham over Morgan argument could be that Graham’s motor is relentless and Morgan’s is questioned at times.
But the Morgan over Graham…is that the “motor argument” isn’t saying much, as Morgan’s pretty relentless himself.
Also Morgan, like you say has ideal measurables which would probably parlay a bit more to his potential.
Either way, I’d be happy with the pick. Of course, one of the preceding teams could make this choice a bit easier by choosing one of them (…if the choice is gonna be made between the 2)
Master of the squeegee
by FreeBradshaw on Mar 21, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I think they're very close, but I prefer Graham from my own reasearch
which essentially equates to an opinion. I’ll stand by it when year 2-3 from now when Graham becomes one of the best rushers in the league and Hughes is one of the top Rush OLB’s.
So, let’s talk in a couple of years.
Bleeding Blue since 1962
I went the other way...
and found Morgan a tad more to my liking. Both are good players though, and time, injuries (if any) and where they actually end up will play a big role in which is better – or it could still be close five years from now. But I think both are in the top five for the Giants pick.
No you were not
Him and Morgan are bad picks for the Giants but do not confuse being a bad pick with being a bad player, they are both exactly what you would want from a DE but we have enough edge rushers, our interior needs help from a pass/run stopping standpoint. Maybe 3 yrs ago or 3 yrs from now a pick on them would be warranted but i would turn the tv off and lose it if we picked either one of those guys which i doubt we will.
But dont tell em i told you that !!!!!
Don't get caught up in reality, this is a restricted mock, with ideal picks gone already
Bleeding Blue since 1962
Gotcha
but Price is still on the board so i snatch him up………My thinking is every year there is a dominant DE coming out sometimes more than 1 or 2, it is very rear that you get this class of DT’s so i think you have to take advantage.
But dont tell em i told you that !!!!!
I hope your cable bill isn't too high...be a shame to waste money on a TV that's not gonna be used :)
Master of the squeegee
by FreeBradshaw on Mar 21, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm betting Reese doesnt let me down
So the TV will be on and i will get the most out of my Cable bill which is HIGH as hell. lol
But dont tell em i told you that !!!!!
I dont think
He’s on the Giants Radar either, at least I hope not, he maybe up on the BPA board but he’s not on the Need board.
But dont tell em i told you that !!!!!
No McClain means
BPA in a need slot
That is Lupati to play RT.
No to Morgan UNLESS there is a plan to move Osi. Three DEs plus Tollefson is enough.
Do we really know whether Iupati can play RT?
He can definitely play guard – and Iupati/Snee would be a pretty awesome guard tandem. With Snee pulling left and Iupati in-line blocking, we would become a world-class run-left team so long as Diehl stayed at LT instead of Beatty (who is much more of a pass blocker). But I think its impossible to say with confidence that Iupati is a RT – he really struggled at the position in the Senior Bowl. Couldn’t hold off FreeBradshaw’s beloved Brandon Graham at all (also my problem with Roger Saffold, who DraftCountdown has going to us in Rd2 for RT and was profiled here a couple days ago)
I wouldn't mind Iupati
I think at LG, he’s got Steve Hutchinson potential (and please..no one mention the senior bowl GAME).
If they move Diehl to RT and either cut or keep Mack as a backup…I think that’s an excellent pick.
At RT, that’s a project sort of move. I think Iupati’s got the athleticism and footwork (obviously the size too) to eventually be an OT, and with the GIants OL coach I wouldn’t doubt that he could coach some versatility in there, like he did with Dave Diehl.
But just like Diehl, I think Iupati’s probably better off not being a tackle.
Master of the squeegee
by FreeBradshaw on Mar 21, 2010 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Seems like a no-brainer to me...
The Giants have one big need (MLB) and there is nobody at that position worth drafting here. Trading down is not an option in this mock, and Derrick Morgan is by far the highest rated player left on the board here. We may have too many DEs for 2010, but with Osi and Kiwi rapidly approaching free agency (and, lets face it, Osi isn’t the player he used to be and Kiwi has never been a game-changer by any means) adding a super-stud quality guy like Morgan at this spot would be awesome.
Plus, if I’ve been reading Ed right for the last few weeks, he’s a BPA guy and all the high-ranked draft analysts think Morgan is the BPA. He’s gonna be the pick.
I'd go Brandon Graham here.
With McClain off the board and no ability to trade up or down, I’d take who I consider the best pure pass rusher in the draft. The kid is nearly unblockable and has that same relentless motor that Jerry Hughes has. Morgan is a close second, but Graham is the guy who will make Osi nervous about his job. This would fit right in with all you “trade Osi” guys.
As far as the “experts” are concerned, I totally agree and have built my own system to come up with what I think works outside their judgement with a few mixed in that I trust. I try to avoid the highlight reels when I can get game tape, which I’ve been fortunate to have limited access to this year. Let’s face it some of these guys are fans and homers. That doesn’t lend itself well to unbiased judgement.
Bleeding Blue since 1962
I still like Weatherspoon
He was a really great player for Missouri, very active, quick and athletic, and a defensive leader. He confirmed his speed and strength at the combine with 35 reps of 225 and a 4.57 40. Don’t forget, Pierce was basically the same size and a lot slower. If we let him slide by Atlanta sounds like it is ready to grab him at 19.
Spoon is a Will, that's why ATL wants him. They have a MLB with Curtis Lofton who's solid.
But Spoon doesn’t play him to his “35 bench strength”, he’s not all that great at negotiating traffic and taking on blockers…which is exactly why he played more of a WLB.
He was the leader, the """defensive playcaller""", tho in the BIg 12 they hold up flash-cards for the offense and defense.
If we didnt’ have Boley, Spoon would be open and shut, the pick.
Master of the squeegee
by FreeBradshaw on Mar 21, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Good points
But I just have this sense that these guys get over analyzed at times. Using his speed to avoid a tackle is just as effective as shedding a blocker. Maybe he just needs to work on his block shedding technique in traffic.
I love the idea of a faster MLB who could drop back and match up with these fast TE’s over the middle when needed. He just seems like a really smart and gifted player.
Going around a blocker is alot of wasted motion and can easily put you out of the play.
Just watch the super wide arc Osi took for a large portion of his snaps and how far out of reach the passer was because of it. You want compact, efficient motion to shorten the distance between you and the ball. Being able to shed blockers gives up little ground and keeps you in position to make a play.
Bleeding Blue since 1962
That's why...
it is imperative to get a push upfront (unlike last year), it collapses the pocket, QB cannot step up, whereby OSI, Kiwi, Tuck, are now not out of position coming from the wings. Last year, all the QB had to do was step up in the pocket, no pressure upfront makes a QB’s life a hell of a lot easier.
by Great Gatsby on Mar 22, 2010 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Thing is...
you can use your speed to get around blockers as a WLB. Not so much as a MLB, where you have to negotiate between the mess, which Spoon has trouble with. He may have the 35 reps, but he’s got T-Rex arms, which means a OL once they get their hands on him..its irrelevant.
I wouldn’t hate or love the pick…but I think the whole idea that he’s exactly what the Giants need is a bit too much of drinking the kool-aid, and some delusion in there too.
He may be it…but he may not.
Its kind of annoying since last year it seemed that the greater hole was at OLB…yet guys like Lauranitis and Maualuga were right there.
And this year, the greater need is at MLB, but Weatherspoon is an OLB (and McClain, the ideal, probably isn’t there)
Master of the squeegee
by FreeBradshaw on Mar 21, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Somehow CJ slipped to us
It’s a toss up for me. I voted for Spiller, but I think Weatherspoon or Morgan could very well be chosen instead. Jerry loves his pass rushers so even Graham would have to be considered here. There are so many top notch talents to think about. If I had to choose BPA on defense I would take Morgan.
If RM is gone...
…go Baluga in the first and McCourty in the 2nd.
No Graham or Spoon
Graham is an excellent player but that would be a waste of the Giants pick plus i think the Dolphins will draft him and put him at OLB………… I like spoon alot as well but the more time passes i dont even know about him but they are both excellent players.
But dont tell em i told you that !!!!!
Derrick Morgan is the best available player in this mock and he would be an upgrade for the Giants and give them the freedom to trade Umenyiora or Kiwanuka. But I honestly feel like if McClain , Bulaga and Trent Williams are gone then the Giants will trade back and take Witherspoon or Iupati.
by TheBXRepresenta on Mar 21, 2010 12:20 PM EDT reply actions
I do not think we are trading up or down
thats not what reese does, we will be at 15 and i think he hopes McClain falls because thats their top ranked prospect at MLB, the thing is he will not go to the second ranked MLB automatically, that all depends on where he has certain OL and DT’s ranked and if one of those are ranked higher than his second ranked MLB then thats where he goes. I really think its between the best OL left and Brian Price who is my pick 100%
But dont tell em i told you that !!!!!
I think I'm back on the Price bandwagon
hes lost a lot of support BUT he fits better with the team and won’t be stuck down the depth chart at DE. Seriously getting another DE would be such a bad move I don’t understand why everyone is so in love with Morgan / Graham.
Here is how I rate the remaining players.
1.Brian Price
2.Sean Weatherspoon
3.Anthony Davis
4.CJ Spiller
5.Derrick Morgan
6.Earl Thomas
7.Brandon Graham
8.Mike Iupati
Shouldn’t be drafted by us no matter what:
Taylor Mays
JPP
Sergio Kindle
by mclaren_is_the_best on Mar 21, 2010 12:35 PM EDT reply actions
+1
I know reese loves this guy and he also loves that he’s losing some BUZZ, I think Price is clearly the most logical pick, he brings something different to the interior that we are missing especially with Robbins taking his 5.5 sacks to the Rams. Price would bolster the inside and I think he will take Coefields position…………everyone acts like Coefield job is in stone, how?? when they originally brought in Canty and Bernard to take his spot, shows how much they want him, he does not rush the passer and thats a requirement on this team. BP is the best Interior rusher on the board so i hope they take him.
But dont tell em i told you that !!!!!
They took in Canty and Bernard cuz Robbins was getting old
and both of them had offseason surgery.
They keep a rotation at DT too.
I highly doubt that a DT is gonna play more snaps then a DE in the Giants rotation, if all are healthy.
They’d play just the same, Morgan/Graham are better prospects then Price…simply math.
Master of the squeegee
by FreeBradshaw on Mar 21, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe true
Robbins is gone now and he was the only pass rushing DT as well as Bernard is getting old and they have not resigned Coefield………..i think its actually kind of obvious where we need to go. I think he would end up playing way more because I think price can take some snaps from coefield & Bernard waaaaaaaaaaay before Morgan or Graham can take snaps away from Tuck, Kiwi, Osi, Sintim…….thats actually the simple math i used. Not to mention Price can play inside on 3rd dwn so he has a way on the field, I personally do not see how Graham or Morgan get on the field ever.
But dont tell em i told you that !!!!!
Easy,
they are pass rushers and played inside a lot in college..on third downs, both Morgan and Graham.
Gives the team more flexibility, get a better prospect too.
With Cofield, Canty, Alford and Bernard, that’s 4 players, where a rook is 5th on that.
Kiwi, Osi and Tuck, where a DE is 4th. And also can get some 4 DE, maybe 5 with Sintim, sort of action on the field.
Keep in mind, I’d rather have Price over Weatherspoon. But I’d rather have a better prospect too, and that’s what Morgan or Graham are.
Master of the squeegee
by FreeBradshaw on Mar 21, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Albert
Seems Mr. Haynesworth isn’t getting along with the Idea of a 3-4 in Washington, How many would oppose taking the Remainder of his 3 year contract?
by RagingBattleAxe on Mar 21, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd rather not.
Unless they cut him, the trade isn’t gonna benefit the Giants, too costly
Master of the squeegee
by FreeBradshaw on Mar 21, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I would
based on the contract size! doesnt he have more than 3 years left though?? I think the 34 is the way the skins go UNLESS Suh falls to them then i see them returning to a 43 with Orakpo-Haynesworth-Suh-Carter as the line
But dont tell em i told you that !!!!!
Yeah they are slightly better prospects as a whole
but for us this year i think price is it. I see what your saying as far as Coefield, Canty, Alford, Bernard vs. Kiwi, Osi, Tuck, Sintim but which one of those groups is honestly more talented????, I think a rookie like Price has an easier time getting snaps at DT than Morgan/Graham do at getting time from one of our DE’s…………if Price comes in he is instantly and upgrade over all of our DT’s other than Canty instantaneously but if Graham/Morgan come in i dont think they are instantly better than Tuck, Kiwi or Osi to be honest with you………….At least we see eye to eye as far as Price over Weatherspoon…… And do not get me wrong Graham and Morgan are exceptional prospects if we werent so stacked talent wise at DE already.
But dont tell em i told you that !!!!!
Cofield and Canty are the starters
I doubt he’s cracking that unless either are hurt. You can bet on that.
Alford basically IS Price, if he’s healthy and given he’s a DT and long since removed from his injury…I’d trust Alford over a rook. Bernard should be the odd man out, and probably the only one the rook has a chance of beating out.
So its a 4th DT vs. a 4th DE. Maybe he’s got a better chance of beating out one of the DT’s…obviously, but if that’s the way your looking at it well….maybe getting a different perspective is necessary.
Its all about getting to the QB, and given that the situation for playing time seems like its gonna be equal…
I’d take the only thing that separates the prospects, meaning the BETTER player.
Morgan or Graham are better them Price. That’s why either are the pick.
Master of the squeegee
by FreeBradshaw on Mar 21, 2010 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Jay Alford is good but he is not Price at all
Jay doesnt have nearly the first step, motor or speed of Price at all. Coefield is a starter but both Price & a healthy Alford can take his spot in my estimation………Graham and Morgan collect cobwebs on the bench before they even think about getting time from one of our DE’s…………………I like alford as well too dont get me wrong but the Rook has more potential than all of them. If Price, alford and cofield were all coming out at the same time Price still would be the only 1st rounder to me. Coefield and Alford are solid but they dont exhibit any special traits that would lead me to believe Price cant take there jobs. However Tuck, Kiwi and Osi all exhibit traits that would make it impossible for Graham and Morgan to get on the field at least more than Price!.
But dont tell em i told you that !!!!!
Price can EASILY take Canty’s place. We all HOPE that Canty can magically become a great 3-tech DT but it’s not that likely. He was absolute crap last year and he may never transition to the 4-3 properly.
Bernard is real old and likely will be gone after this year if he even makes the team and otherwise we will be needing a DT in the future anyway. at DE we have 3 players playing in their PRIME right now. Drafting a DE would be like drafting another WR or TE.
by mclaren_is_the_best on Mar 21, 2010 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
Totally agree even with the Canty statement though i think he was injured and will step up, Price could be better than even him. Everyone acts like we are so good at the DT spot but our best DT without question for the last 4 years has been Fred Robbins and he is gone we shouldnt underestimate how much he meant, he was injured last year and was still our best DT, COefield is young but still was not better than Fred. I think we have to address that position early.
But dont tell em i told you that !!!!!
How exactly are Graham and Morgan better prospects?
by mclaren_is_the_best on Mar 21, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I haven't seen one site have Price over Morgan or Graham, for starters
and I myself have Morgan as a top 5-10 caliber player (#7 overall prospect), with Price being a top 15-20 caliber prospect (I gots him at #18)
Graham I have at #14 rathed as a prospect (but #2 DE)
I guess that’s pretty self explanatory.
Master of the squeegee
by FreeBradshaw on Mar 21, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe not BPA period
but he is the best player available at a position of need……………and he is special IMO
But dont tell em i told you that !!!!!
Nope
He sure doesnt, not consensus BPA anyway…………..by the way what the hell is BPA!!! to me there are too many players that are good to even determine an overall BPA, it has to be need based and thats what we have always done.
But dont tell em i told you that !!!!!
I wouldn't dream of denying you your opinion....but...
beware of “it’s what we have always done.” As in the following situations:
* We’ll turn back before we sail off the edge of the world, cuase it’s what we’ve always done.
We’ll keep focusing the company on our good Kodak photography film and papers, this digital stuff is a passing fad.
Who needs a personal computer when you can have a Wang wordprosessor?
What we’ve always done in any situation is valid as long as it’s the right move, but one needsd to constantly evaluate the world and its situations as they change, for “what we have always done” could have been the motto of a lot of buggy whip manufacturers.
Denver's site mock....
Gives us Kindle with the #15 pick. He’s getting a robust 3% of the poll here.
And Lamarr Houston in the 2nd (Texas again)
and Amari Spievey in the 3rd.
….
I don’t think he’s a Gints fan tho.
Master of the squeegee
by FreeBradshaw on Mar 21, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
That is their revenge on us for our mock having such an unneeded player going to them
by mclaren_is_the_best on Mar 21, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Soooooo.....if we traded Denver Kindle for McClain,
everyone in New York and Denver would be happy right ;-D. Works for me, cause I think we’re pretty to sure to see Kindle available at #15, and it’s very iffy that McClain would be there.
Didn't we draft McClain for them?
Dunno how that’s unneeded.
And don’t go with the DJ Williams was a 1st rounder. That was 2004 and as a WLB which he’s better off as anyway.
He’s on a whole new contract, maybe a third..dunno. The fact he was a first round pick is basically irrelevant.
DWTDD
by FreeBradshaw on Mar 21, 2010 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, it's tough trying be a fountain of knowledge....
about a team you probably see every 3-4 years and really don’t follow. In general the guys here have done a pretty good job at it though, and I’m impressed.
this is true
I love the Houston pick. Spievey’s OK, I’d rather get a CB in the later rounds…cuz lets face it, unless the dude is a far and away BPA (which Spievey is not ) and he’s only gonna be a nickel CB at best, Dime most likely.
But the Kindle pick is real mailed in. Giants need LB + Kindle LB seems like the rational, which sucks.
Most of the other picks seem coherent too, aside from this one….which as a Gints fan makes me a bit Angerer.
Master of the squeegee
by FreeBradshaw on Mar 21, 2010 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
We need Ed to post his pick...
So we really have something to complain about ;-D
Well ...
for now you can just complain about me NOT making the pick yet. In the morning, you can complain about the pick I make. Shoot, I’m not even sure I’m going to like it.
by Ed Valentine on Mar 21, 2010 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
That's the trouble with MORNING picks...
the darn “real world” pokes it’s nose in and makes it dificult to swear and bang on the computer screen while at work!
SPOON!
Didn’t get here in time tov ote, but looks like my boy Spoon didn’t need me to!
I'm with you
I just saw that Pat Kirwan’s newest Mock has us picking Weatherspoon now.
Well, it's hardly a mandate....for ANYONE...
Spoon, the top vote getter is NOT the choice of 7 out of ten Giants fans polled, and “Someone Else” have sneaked into the 4th most popular choice. In a post McClain draft, it seems almost anyone who could realisticly be chosen will some, but minority support. Makes it tough for Ed, and it appears that no matter who he chooses, there will be more people who wanted someone else than whomever he picks.
*
“Someone Else” HAS sneaked into the ……seems almost anyone who could realistically be chosen will RECEIVE some, but minority support. I’m not totally illiterate, I just type that way!
I'd like to know who the hell the 65 people, at least as of now
have voted for Kindle and Mays?
Kindle=Sintim, and I’d give the edge to Clint as a prospect anyway.
And Mays doesn’t even wear a jacket in the cold, cuz he doesn’t like to cover. CC Brown must’ve not scared ya’ll off…that is, unless its all you EAGLE cretins….
DWTDD
And this just in from the Combine Kitchen....
It’s now reported that Brandon Spikes managed to boil minute rice in 2 hours, 12 minutes and 5.27 seconds.
SPILLER.
Sean Witherspoon isnt that great, we dont need an LB anyways. Now CJ Spiller is the anwser to our Rb problems. i mean seriously, a better jacobs and that speedy cj spiller will make our running game awsome. seriously guys.
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