Pro Football Focus Numbers Are ... Interesting
by Ed Valentine on Nov 23, 2010 11:38 AM EST
in New York Giants News
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PrintSometimes I just don't understand the numbers when I look at the weekly grades for our New York Giants from Pro Football Focus. There are quite a few examples of that this week, as you will see shortly. This is why I always caution you to use PFF's data as a resource for discussion, not as gospel.
That said, let's get on with a look at the grades.
Offense
No big surprise here in that these grades are terrible. The offense itself was pretty terrible in Sunday's 27-17 loss to Philadelphia, and the grades reflect that.
In fact, only one offensive player who played more than five snaps to receive a positive grade from PFF. That would be quarterback Eli Manning, who came out +3.1 despite three interceptions and two fumbles. Imagine what he could have done without the turnovers, which is something the Giants as a whole have been trying to imagine all season.
Here is what PFF said in summarizing Manning's performance.
The most impressive thing about Manning’s night was his performance under pressure. When he felt the heat, Manning went 11 of 17 for 81 yards and two TDs with a QB rating of 115.1. In contrast, when afforded time, Manning was a very poor 9 of 16 for 66 yards and three interceptions.
Considering the ineffective Giants' running game, it should not be a shocker that all of PFF's lowest grades for the Giants were for the guys trying to open the holes. These are just plain ugly.
Bear Pascoe (-1.4), Kareem McKenzie (-2.2), Kevin Boothe (-2.9), Kevin Boss (-3.3, most due to poor pass blocking), Shawn Andrews (-3.7), Rich Seubert (-4.1). UGLY!
If you were reading Monday, you know I gave Andrews a 'Kudos,' so that does not match up with PFF's opinion. Andrews did lose significant points for the two holding calls -- only one of which was a really obvious penalty. I still feel Andrews did an excellent job in allowing just three pressures, no sacks and no hits on Manning in 36 dropbacks.
Despite his rough night, by the way, McKenzie's +17.1 for the season makes him PFF's highest-graded tackle in the league thus far. Which, the way things have been going for the Giants, means now he will get hurt.
Defense
A lot of positive numbers for the Giants on defense, which you might expect since they did about as good a job Sunday on Michael Vick and the explosive Eagles offense as you could have anticipated. There are, however, a couple of grades I just can't understand.
How does Justin Tuck get just a +1.1 after recording three sacks, two forced fumbles and two tackles for loss in one of the best individual games he has likely ever played? I really have no idea how PFF arrived at the notion that Tuck was -0.7 in the pass rush.
I also don't get the -0.7 grade given to cornerback Terrell Thomas. The guy missed one tackle all night, did an excellent job in coverage on the outside, played solid run support and ended up with 10 tackles. How what he did does not equate to a better number I can't explain.
Barry Cofield (+3.0) and Kenny Phillips (+2.3) received the best defensive grades.
The worst defensive grades went to Corey Webster (-1.2), Aaron Ross (-1.6) and Michael Bole (-2.0). I do get the Boley grade, especially if you look at the film and determine he was the player who lost contain on LeSean McCoy's back-breaking 50-yard touchdown run.
Special Teams
Matt Dodge came out at -1.2 after another adventurous punting performance. Dodge, by the way, rates a -2.8 for the season. The only punter who has been with his team all season who PFF rates lower is Chicago's Brad Maynard, who has an astoundingly awful -8.7 score. Will Blackmon had an uneven night returning the ball and graded out at -1.7. Derek Hagan, who it says here the Giants never should have cut in the first place, made two tackles on specials and had a +0.5 for his coverage. Terrell Thomas ended up at +1.5 after blocking a field goal.
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How bout Rolle
"Sack-Forced Fumble-TD against any QB in the history of the NFL.... honestly, It would probably be Eli because I see him in pratice and we can't touch him (laughs)" - Justin Tuck
by The Always Well Dressed... on Nov 23, 2010 11:46 AM EST reply actions
Agreed on Terrell Thomas and Justin Tuck, Ed. How Justin Tuck only got a 1.1 is beyond me. (Not that I even know or care to know what "1.1" even means… but compared to a +3.0 for Cofield, that number makes no sense no matter how they arrived at it). PFF is garbage, frankly. One year they had DeSean Jackson ranked as something like the 80th best WR in the NFL, which is utter ridiculousness. Very, very poor man’s Football Outsiders.
What did you think of Andrews?
"We’re going to hit the quarterback as many times as possible, and if he doesn’t make it through the game, then that’s unfortunate for him."
-Barry Cofield
by tito (eight and oh) on Nov 23, 2010 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
Second that
As I said elsewhere, I felt Cole gave him trouble (as he should), and got some pressures. All things considered though, he did decent… not great but not bad.
Still haven’t re-watched the game yet. I tend to watch the game as a fan when it’s live, and when I re-watch, that’s when I look at the line play. So I really couldn’t give a fully informed opinion yet, although I will note that the RB’s got absolutely nothing to work with whatsoever in the run game, and the Giants didn’t even bother trying to run to the left side.
So Andrews failed then
is the early assessment? We are just looking for your feeling on it, since you know him as an Eagles fan and want to see his back contort into 9 angles permanently (I keed, but it sure seems that way at times).
“Failed” is a little strong, but based on what I saw (and again, I wasn’t specifically watching him, so this isn’t really a fully formed opinion), I didn’t think he had a good game by normal LT standards.
That's fair
As I said, I think he did decently, but not good or great.
Left side
Part of that issue is also Boothe on that side. Remember, Andrews/Boothe/Seubert have not worked together at all, and Boothe has only had like two weeks of practice. Tough to expect a lot.
by Ed Valentine on Nov 23, 2010 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
That’s always a question I have when people evaluate individual lineman. Sometimes it’s obvious who had who, but often times it is not. At best, anyone but the coaching staff is just guessing if it’s unclear.
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They sent a lot of help to his side, which is understandable. I’m not sure whether that might have played into PFF’s evaluation? Do you give a T the same grade if he stops a guy that has been chipped versus when he stops a guy on his own? I’m honestly not sure how they grade that.
But the two holding penalties, which are almost like sacks and the total lack of any push in the run game is probably what they mostly didn’t like.
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PFF
This is why I always say don’t look at it as ‘gospel.’ It’s a discussion-starter. I would love to sit with one of these guys, see what film they are using and how they arrive at a grade. I haven’t re-watched the game, either … and I don’t intend to.
by Ed Valentine on Nov 23, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe I missed it elsewhere, but what's the (serious) Eagles fan's take on the game?
Total Domination or “Holy crap, did we get away with one there”
I thought the final score was pretty reflective of how each team played. I thought Philly clearly outplayed the Giants (they almost doubled them up in total yardage and won the turnover battle 5-2), but I’d hardly call it complete domination. Next one should be more even with some of your key players returning.
Thanks. I didn't know if maybe you guys had that, sick to your stomach...
“I can’t believe we’re letting these guys hang around after all the stupid mistakes that they’ve made” feeling?
I’m getting that feeling now just describing it!!!
No wonder you hang around here
You have the same self-destructive, joy for watching a team do ya nothing but give ya ulcers and a drinking problem!
Thanks Jimm
Upcoming weeks
With Nicks out teams will be able to play man and stack the box 8 people.
What does this mean? The defense will have to play attack and not the bend and break philosophy. They’ll have to come out and go for turnovers, interceptions and points created by the defense.
I know Fewell can dial it up and I know that the defense is up for the challenge.
Gilbride, get creative.
Sorry – just didn’t want to respond to the points discussion.
Please get Phil Simms in the Hall of Fame
Takeaways?
When was the last time, other than the fumbles Tuck caused, our defense stepped up and made a big play? A turnover? A game-changing play? I think Deon Grant had an interception in garbage time of the Seahawks game, but i can’t even remember the last interception we’ve had. Yes, the defeinse has played well and strong almost every game, and is the top-ranked defense in the NFL, but how about a big play now and again????
Grant had a big INT
in the Cowboys game. Picked in the end zone. Although it was on a 3rd down, so some could say it was like a punt. Better than a TD though.
"Stop the run to earn the right to rush the passer"- great philosophy from new SU DLine coach Jimmy Brumbaugh.
by bigbluethruandthru on Nov 23, 2010 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
How do you properly grade a CB
when they are being asked to play “off coverage”?
Cweb surrendered a few catches to Djax in the first half…when Fewell started bringing an extra guy I don’t know if I heard Djax’s name the rest of the game.
if that’s good for a -1 rating I’ll take it more weeks…..
TT gets picked on more in Man coverage so I think that would account for his score….(i think)
TT was playing pretty off on some plays
The third down where he was playing way off and gave up the easy first was pretty bad. Maybe that’s on Fewell, maybe that’s on him, but you gotta know the situation there and not give so much cushion that it is an easy dump and first.
Despite his rough night, by the way, McKenzie’s +17.1 for the season makes him PFF’s highest-graded tackle in the league thus far. Which, the way things have been going for the Giants, means now he will get hurt.
Great stuff.
"We’re going to hit the quarterback as many times as possible, and if he doesn’t make it through the game, then that’s unfortunate for him."
-Barry Cofield
by tito (eight and oh) on Nov 23, 2010 11:54 AM EST reply actions
+1
reinforces what I said a few weeks ago, re: the season he has been having
by Step up and make big plays on Nov 23, 2010 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
I believe I called that Andrews would grade out poorly
No offense Ed, but you have really been looking at Andrews season with rose colored glasses. I know the whole player coming back from two back surgeries and depression to become a dominant force for the rival of the team that he bombed out from is a great feel good story that is a sports reporters dream, but the reality of Andrews season has been much less. He got to look good playing as a TE where he had very favorable matchups. He wasn’t being asked to block premier pass rushers solo. He was getting secondary players like linebackers or safeties where he had the major size advantage, or he was simply the second man in a double team block. Any offensive lineman should look good playing the role of blocking TE. When he has stepped in as the actual LT he has not been all that impressive. It seems folks want to worship the man if Eli doesn’t get sacked. The reality is Eli is pretty darn good at not getting sacked by his own virtues of moving in the pocket or getting rid of the ball in time. It wasn’t the case that he was sitting pretty back there. The Eagles were getting pressure while beating Andrews. Andrews was also not getting it done on the run blocking. He has not shown to be an “elite” LT, and based on his contract turning into elite LT money next year he is looking like he will be one and done with us.
Andrews
I look at him and simply say this. He’s a better left tackle than David Diehl. That’s the only grade I need.
by Ed Valentine on Nov 23, 2010 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know that is an accurate statement
Andrews has gotten far more help from a TE or back than Diehl was given. Diehl was far more effective in the run game than Andrews has been. Diehl wasn’t getting called for tons of penalties. Really once the coaches got a clue and gave him some help Diehl wasn’t complete garbage. Everyone tears him apart for the Indy game mostly, but that is as much on the coaches as on him. Andrews is playing because Diehl is hurt. If Diehl was healthy he would be playing LT and Andrews would be playing LG while Richie covers for O’Hara. If O’Hara and Diehl were both healthy Andrews would be back to playing as a blocking TE.
Great take bigblue777
Well thought out, very fair opinion.
I’m interested…over the last 10 weeks, while getting to the 6-4 record the Giants are at, what positives do you see from this team? What facets of the game do you feel have allowed the Giants to be succesful more times than not this year? Where do you think the Giants greatest strengths are as a unit, or individually?
"We’re going to hit the quarterback as many times as possible, and if he doesn’t make it through the game, then that’s unfortunate for him."
-Barry Cofield
by tito (eight and oh) on Nov 23, 2010 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
The big three are
Tuck, Osi, and Coefield. That trio has been key in our defenses ability to both stop the run and rush the passer. Canty has gotten in the mix here and there, but the other three I really think are who are the cogs to the defense. Deon Grant has been impressive playing as both a LB and a Safety. He’s played safety, WILL, and nickle Mike and been pretty darn good at each spot. I can’t think of many people that could do that. Add that he was a low key free agent pickup and he is even more impressive. Phillips doesn’t show up on the stat sheet but his ability to play single high has given Fewell a lot of flexability to use the other safety to mask the deficiencies of the linebackers. Webster and TT have done well on the outside, especially once Fewell got a clue and started to mix in some press coverage. The weak link on defense has been the linebacker unit. Our defnsive line play and use of safeties to supplement the middle of the field has worked against the weaker teams and teams playing with backup QBs, but that weak link did bight us against Dallas and Philly.
On offense our WRs were pretty impressive before becoming the MASH unit. Smith and Nicks, while niether being a real down the field threat, made for a pretty nasty duo. It’s going to be rough with both out. Our offensive line was starting to gel again, but they too are now a MASH unit which unfortunately everyone but Jerry Reese saw coming based on age and showing signs of wear and tear. While Bear Pascoe may not be a portotypical FB you have to give him credit for the job he has done filling in wherever, whenever, however he is needed. Our run game did improve when he became the FB. The OL issues now make any FB’s job pretty rough. Bradshaw has been explosive, but needs to learn ball control. Early on we were getting away with the fumbles and could just lavish in the explosiveness. With the other surrounding issues now those fumbles have been more costly.
Moving forward we have to make the best of what we have. The defense needs to get stout. No showboating, no freelancing, do your job. Boley needs to maintain contain, Rolle needs to stop biting up the short angle and stay over top. Goff needs to start getting in the passing lanes on those zone drops, and all of the LBs need to start hitting the hole with some fire. These guys need to recognize the team has to lean on them and they need to man up.
On offense, again we have to man up. With the WR situation we can’t be getting cutsey anymore. Time to dig in some heels and pound the rock. The first step is to sit down Boothe and put in Petrus. The rook is raw and is going to make mistakes, but that is the chance we are going to have to take. He is stronger than Boother and more athletic. We need that LG to get some push and be able to pull block. Petrus gives us hope there, Boothe does not. As much as I like Bradshaw it might be time to feed the rock to big boy. We can’t afford fumbles right now and we need to get tough and pund some people. The old grind em down tactic might be back in style. Stay ahead of the chains, stay in manageable situations and utilize high percentage throws. It can be done, we need to get old school and man up to the challenge. The question is this team has loads of athletic talent, but does it have players with the determination and grit to face this challenge.
by bigblue777 on Nov 23, 2010 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Excellent.
Truly a sound, realistic, and detailed analysis. This could be a Fan Post.
Rec’d.
"We’re going to hit the quarterback as many times as possible, and if he doesn’t make it through the game, then that’s unfortunate for him."
-Barry Cofield
by tito (eight and oh) on Nov 23, 2010 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
Before the game
I lobbied to put Beatty at LT and Andrews at LG. The LT gets so much help that I really felt that Beatty would’ve been fine.
I still believe that Beatty and Andrews is better than Andrews and Boothe or Petrus.
"I was going to separate from this guy and make him look silly." -- Kevin Boss
TT blocked a FG, right?
never hear anyone mention that…does that factor into any of this?
"18 and 1...write THAT down!!" -- AP at XLII
I think it was Cofield
Pretty sure.
Also Ed, two diff scores for TT. Explain?
All the Giants should play like Mark Bavaro.
by UnknownJintsFan on Nov 23, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks
Did he block the FG or Colfield?
All the Giants should play like Mark Bavaro.
by UnknownJintsFan on Nov 23, 2010 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
Thomas did
Cofield got an extra point the week before.
by Ed Valentine on Nov 23, 2010 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, I remember it now
Dispensation for old people like me.
I even posted a kudo for getting his big butt in the air.
Silly me.
What team are we talking about? :)
All the Giants should play like Mark Bavaro.
by UnknownJintsFan on Nov 23, 2010 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
Andrews and the future
Against JAX, I would REALLY like to see Beatty start at LT and Andrews at LG. Not only does that makes sense as it is their true positions, but at some point we need to answer the question: is Beatty a starter for us or not? The answer may have an impact on how we approach the next draft. Perhaps we target a tackle no matter what, but it’d sure be nice to know whether we think Beatty has a future.
Andrews
The long-term problem w/Andrews, at tackle or guard, is whether or not you believe his back will hold up.
by Ed Valentine on Nov 23, 2010 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
True but...
Agree that Andrews’ future role will be health dependend. Perhaps my post was misnamed: should have been Beatty and the future.
My understanding is that Beatty is basically healthy at this point. If so, isn’t that an amazing indictment of him (in Coughlin’s eyes) if he does not play. Let’s see….we’re down two starters, you have a former Pro Bowler at G who we will now play out of position so that we keep Beatty on the bench, with a serviceable-at-best guard coming in…..all of this when you have available your former second round pick who was supposed to be groomed to be the tackle of the future? Moreover, they suffered in the run game last week, so it’s not like an “experiment” would cost you much. Boothe should sit. If Beatty doesn’t play now, then when?
by NorthwestFan on Nov 23, 2010 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
Andrews
His future with the Giants might still be at guard. I wouldn’t mind Boothe sitting, but my guess is TC will be loathe to make even more changes.
by Ed Valentine on Nov 23, 2010 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
Beatty has been very unimpressive
He couldn’t win the job comign out of camp. A lot of folks blame the injury for him not getting the LT job, but he lost that battle before getting hurt. He got hurt playing as a TE. Now that he is back healthy he has looked unimpressive even as a TE.
I thought he improved as the preseason went along
I’m not sure how impressive a player who has missed nine games should be at a position that he has played before but I’d rather have him at LT than Boothe at LG.
"I was going to separate from this guy and make him look silly." -- Kevin Boss
Frankly I'd rather see Petrus in there than either right now.
Petrus if nothing else has shown the fire and passion to play. Something I haven’t seen from Beatty or Boothe. In the situation we are in with being so banged up on offense I think success will have less to do with potential or polish and much more to do with pure grit and determination. We need guys on that line who are going to fight for every last inch. We know Richie, Snee, and big Mac will. Andrews I just don’t know. Beatty and Boothe, not from what I’ve seen. Petrus, I think if you put that guy on the field he is going to give you everything he has got plus try to find more to give you.
strong agree
Kampman is hurt. With no strong pass rush expected from the outside, it would be a good game to get Beatty’s feet wet. Their DTs have been playing well, rather have Andrews in the middle than outside.
IMO, the vastly different QB rating from blitz and coverage D
Reflects how bad our WR’s are right now.
If they’re blitzing, the success of the offensive play is completely dependent on the QB recognizing it, stepping up in the pocket (or out), and finding the hot read quickly.
If they just have 3 or 4 guys rushing and the rest in coverage, the onus is on the WR’s to find a way to get separation or find a hole in the coverage so that the QB even has a chance of making a play.
With mediocre (Manningham, Boss, Beckum, and Bradshaw) to scrub (Calhoun and Hagan) talent in our receiving corps, I don’t see any reason for opposing defenses to blitz Eli. With noone getting open and our ramshackle o-line, even a 3-man rush will get to Eli sooner or later. We should be ok against the Jags, since they’re terrible, but there are 3 divisional games left. I’m getting worried…
The problem with their grades...
is that they don’t account for how long the secondary was being asked to cover the eagles wide receivers. The Giants strategy was to bring a lot of blitzes, which usually leads to man on man coverage. Also the Giants were more concerned with keeping Vick in the pocket than bring unbalanced pressure. Again, that makes it tough on the secondary. It’s not that they played poorly but rather that their assignments were extremely difficult.
I don’t expect PFF to account for all of that stuff, but their numbers need to be placed into the proper context.
Clayton it is...
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next."
Amazing what the statistics show about Eli
He is much better on reaction and instinct than when he has time to think about it. That may be true, first time I have seen someone say that. Maybe problems at LT will improve his QB rating. I will be watching now to see if this is a pattern. But my instinct says that his Favre moments may come when his conscious rather than his sub-conscious is making decisions. I think maybe Archie’s voice in his head maybe be better than his own analysis.
by Spider Lockhart on Nov 23, 2010 8:51 PM EST reply actions
Another aspect
is that if he is being blitzes there are less guys in coverage. If he has time he is throwing into extra coverage. It shows he doesn’t panic, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that he has problems over thinking things. It could also have to do with our reciever’s. Some reciever’s if you give them time they get open, out run the coverage etc. We don’t have guys that stretch the field. We have a lot of throw it short and get YAC type guys. Those guys are going to excel when getting hit on a hot route and having fewer defenders out there to beat. They may not be so good at slicing up a max zone cover though. That max zone also puts guys in position to make picks either jumping those short routes or getting those tip balls.
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