Football Outsiders Almanac, New York Giants, Part 1: The pass rush
Thanks to the gurus here at SB Nation I have been handed a copy of the 2009 Football Outsiders' Almanac. As you might expect, the Almanac is filled with good stuff to discuss about our New York Giants.
There are way too many goodies in the Almanac to cover in one post. I will break this down into four or five posts. Let's begin by examining what FOA says about the defensive line.
Outsiders has been consistent since the end of the 2008 season in saying that it was the collapse of the defense, not the loss of Plaxico Burress, that was the reason for the Giants downfall at the end of last season. That continued in the Almanac.
What drove the Giants’ demise was the defense. Unless you want to pin the blame on Antonio Pierce’s extracurricular issues related to the Burress incident, Burress had nothing to do with the decline. Instead, it was a regression in the team’s sack rate that correlated well with the team’s dip in performance, culminating in the playoff game versus the Eagles in which— despite playing behind an offensive line missing multiple starters — Donovan McNabb was not sacked once (although a hurry led to an intentional grounding penalty in the end zone). While Justin Tuck had 8.5 sacks over the first ten games of the season and a respectable 3.5 more in the final seven games of the year (from Arizona on), everyone else disappeared. Mathias Kiwanuka had 8.5 sacks by the Cardinals game and 1.5 after. Fred Robbins, Dave Tollefson, and Barry Cofield combined for 11 sacks before the trip to Glendale and all of one sack afterwards.
It’s impossible to pinpoint the exact cause of the precipitous drop. ... There’s no sign that the scheme of newly-departed defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo stagnated or was "figured out" by opposing offenses.
The working theory of the Giants organization is simpler: The front seven got tired.
We know how the Giants addressed that issue. Adding free-agent tackles Chris Canty and Rocky Bernard, and getting Osi Umenyiora back from injury. The Giants have an eight-man rotation up front that should be the envy of the league.
Outsiders expects new defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan to use that impressive front to move away from some of Spagnuolo's more extravagant blitz packages.
Sheridan’s ascension to the role following Spagnuolo’s departure for St. Louis will come with some changes. Spagnuolo’s blitz-happy scheme relied on a combination of speed and deception; a typical play, for example, might involve lining up Kiwanuka and Tuck on the same side of the field, only to have them drop back while the overload blitz came from the other side. Perhaps owing to the increased depth allowed him by the free agent acquisitions, Sheridan has said that he will move away from the Jim Johnson-influenced subterfuge and employ simpler blitz schemes, relying on fresher players to get past tired blockers.
I think the beginning of training camp has shown that some of that will be true. Sheridan, however, will not be a 'vanilla' coordinator. The 5-1-5 alignment the Giants have unveiled shows that. There is no doubt this will still be a pressure-based defense. And the depth of the line should be a huge advantage.
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Thanks for adding this stuff Ed
At least we’ll get a little taste of the Almanac.
Anyway, I agree with you. No matter how good your line is, in today’s game you still need to be creative because the opposing coaches will figure out how to beat a vanilla defense. There’s just too much talent all over the league. Anyway, it’s one of the bigger questions for the Gmen going into the season … what will a Bill Sheridan defense look like and will that scheme be championship caliber? I can’t see how it can’t with the talent that is there and the experience Sheridan has, but the jury is still out until real games begin.
Agreed
As for the Almanac, I have several more posts coming with pieces of it. So, stay tuned.
by Ed Valentine on Aug 11, 2009 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Besides getting deeper
the Giants front seven got bigger. Even as a DE, Canty is a pretty big guy and could pull a Tuck by rushing from the DT position. How scary would that be to see four DEs lining up to rush the passer on 3rd and 8?
After some of the 3rd downs that got converted last year
letting “Four Aces” loose without bringing the secondary sounds mighty fine to me.
I Couldn't Agree More
Last year I felt that teams were actually catching up with Spags. The Giants struggled against the max protection big time. It appeared to me that when the opposing team was keeping 7 or 8 guys in to block, his answer should have been to drop back into zones and look to intercept balls, or else open a big can of whoopass on whoever catches the pass. The Giants did neither. It didn’t appear that was in his bag of tricks. It seemed to me that all he asked of our secondary was to tackle the reciever after he caught the ball and try not to give up too much YAC, and then hope the pass rush would get to them next time. These guys are capable of more.
If you think four rushers is scary, what about 5?
Thats just absolute nuts! I think we’ll see offenses take a lot of timeouts to make sure they have the correct blocking schemes. Osi, Canty, Bernard, Kiwi and Tuck in the middle is just scary and exciting. I kinda flinch just thinking about the hits.
Five
I can see the Giants sending 5 very, very often. It just will rarely be a corner or safety. It will be 5 linemen, or 4 and a linebacker like Sintim.
by Ed Valentine on Aug 11, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
If I'm the opposing offenses ...
I’d be in a no-huddle to keep the G-men from rotating in their “fresher” D-linemen. Taking a time-out gives our D the most time to throw yet another personnel package out there. I hope we are game-planning for seeing some no-huddle or hurry-up, so we don’t get caught short.
Free download
BTW, Ed I love this site. It is the first site I check everyday.
A few weeks ago the football outsiders website had a free dowload of one section of the Almanac. Lucky for us it was the Giants’ section.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2009/foa-2009-preview-new-york-giants
Nice
The PDF version of the whole thing is only $12.
by Ed Valentine on Aug 11, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Giants Receivers
Giants still need one of their guys to catch the ball in the end zone.
We need a back-up center..
that can snap the ball…I think the receiving group will produce TDs, but we need a reliable back-up center… I have a feeling that our offense is going to be on the field alot given the awesome d-line we have…So they need centers that can snap a dang ball consistently.
Exactly
Giants unveiled that alignment at a practice over the weekend. We’ll see what they actually do with it.
by Ed Valentine on Aug 11, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Runyan
Yeah, its off topic I know. But am I the only one on the planet that thinks that John Runyan would be a much better backup OT than anyone we have on the roster right now? MacKenzies back worries me, and we can’t put Beatty or Boothe there and expect success. Runyan is a warhorse and played that position forever against this division.
To me, the one thing that worries me is veteran depth. I think Whimper can fill in adequately for Diehl, but I worry about McKenzie. I was hopefull when they picked up Olivea after the problems he had in SD with painkiller addiction, but I don’t know what happened there, he disappeared off the radar.

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