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Let's rumble: Matching '85-86 Giants vs. the '07-08 teams

Bill_parcells_medium
Tom_coughlin_medium
Bill Parcells and Tom Coughlin have both enjoyed the ultimate success as head coach of our New York Giants. Now, which one actually had the best teams?

If you think about the history of the modern New York Giants, the best two-year periods by Giants' squads have been Bill Parcells' 1985 and 1986 teams, and Tom Coughlin's 2007 and 2008 teams.

For a while now, I have wanted to pit the squads from those two eras against each other and see which era -- and which team -- was ultimately the best. Now, with the help of the wizards at WhatIfSports, I have been able to pull it off.

The gurus at WhatIfSports matched Parcells '85 and '86 teams against TC's '07 and '08 squads in a series of computer simulations. Each game was run 10,000 times, and the results are sure to stir up some debate.

Star-divide

These simulations are run without weather conditions or home-field advantage figured in. There is also the Plaxico Burress factor. WhatIfSports used the "most common depth chart," for each team. That's a fancy way of saying the simulations include Plax as part of the 2008 team.

Anyway, here are WhatIfSports' findings.

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS
2008 defeats 1986 67.6% of the time by an average score of 22.2 to 17.3
2008 defeats 1985 56.4% of the time by an average score of 21.5 to 19.4
1986 defeats 2007 53.1% of the time by an average score of 19.3 to 19.1
1985 defeats 2007 62.8% of the time by an average score of 19.0 to 16.1
WINNING PERCENTAGES
2008 wins 62.0% of the time
2007 wins 42.1% of the time
1986 wins 42.8% of the time
1985 wins 53.2% of the time
OVERALL COMPARISON OF ERAS
2008/2007 combine to win 52.1%
1986/85 combine to win 47.9%

My first reaction is to be really, really ticked off at Burress. Again. When I thought I had moved on. I had kind of suspected this, but this data confirms what I thought. Of all of the teams we are looking at, the 2008 Giants -- when they were whole -- were by far the best team of this group. A 62 percent winning percentage is pretty convincing.

So, that confirms what we already pretty much know. The 2008 season was a waste of a truly historic opportunity for the Giants.

Another really interesting finding is that the 1985 team, which lost to the Bears in the NFC playoffs (the famous Sean Landeta whiffed punt game) had the second-highest winning percentage (53.2%). So, the head-to-head comparisons tell you the Super Bowl championship teams were actually not as good as the two teams that fell short. Pretty amazing!

The other finding here is that the recent vintage teams, '07 & '08 -- fared slightly better overall. Coughlin's group beat Parcells' teams 52.1 percent of the time.

This research is, of course, not definitive. And it does not go through and do a player-by-player comparison of the teams. It would appear, though, that the Giants of Coughlin, Eli, Justin, Brandon and AP have a slight advantage over the best teams of Bill, Phil. LT and Harry.

Your thoughts? I'm sure you have plenty on this topic.

Historical Background

(from Giants.com)

  • 1985 -- Giants went 10-6. Lost to Chicago, 21-0, in the NFC playoffs.
  • 1986 -- Super Bowl champions, defeating Denver, 39-20. Overall record of 17-2.
  • 2007 -- Super Bowl champions, defeating New England, 17-4. Overall record of 14-6.
  • 2008 -- Giants went 12-4 in the regular season. Lost to Philadelphi in the NFC playoffs.

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I wonder what would have happened to that 86 team

if LT shot himself. I mean it might have been understandable cuz we all knew what that white powder was on his nose, but I’d think they end up like the 2008 version and not be as good as they could have been.

And I never really knew how pissed I was a Plax until reading this, on how good that team was last year.

Im gonna step a few hours in my ANGRY DOME!….soon as the professor gets out.

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 9, 2009 7:39 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

You've got to love stats

While I haven’t done any research to back my opion, my gut would have me go with Parcells" crew. The X factor to me would be that defense and LT. As great as the current o-line is, they would have no answer for Taylor and he would eat Eli alive. Also, if Parcells put some of those clock eating drives together and put the 07-08 team behind early, I don’t think the latter could come back against the 85-86 D.

by njgiant on Jul 9, 2009 7:41 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

LT

is, of course, the best player. He would have a field day with David Diehl. These sims were each run 10,000 times, though, so there has to be some validity.

by Ed Valentine on Jul 9, 2009 7:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Clock eating drives

Coughlin’s first SB drive was almost ten minutes. I’m a Parcells guy, just sayin’.

You play to win the game!

by Simms-McConkey on Jul 9, 2009 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And remember,

Parcells is the teacher, Coughlin is the pupil. I’m sure that the old guy would have a trick or two up his sleeve.

by njgiant on Jul 9, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nuts!

Stats and simulations don’t lie, do they. I’ve also gone back and run simulations, and found that the 2007 New England Patriots should have been crowned Super Bowl champions. Sorry guys, hand in your rings at the return counter.

Gas Station Employee: I’m picking up your sarcasm.
Richard Hayden: Well, I should hope so, because I’m laying it on pretty thick.

Okay, that’s not really helpful analysis on my part. My gut says that while the 85-86 Giants teams would have trouble moving the ball against the 07-08 Giants defenses (particularly through the air), the 85-86 Giants defenses would stifle the 07-08 Giants offenses enough to create the favorable field position that would ultimately make the difference.

Then again, my simulation didn’t take into account another helmet catch.

by rzor on Jul 9, 2009 9:19 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Gotta a go with LT's crew

the 07’s pass rush was a little sporadic, it didn’t dominate like ‘86 did, didn’t they knock 5 QBs out of the game in a 6 game stretch? And their favorite meal was stationary QBs. don’t you guys remember LT and Banks standing in the gaps on either side of Burt and collapsing the pocket as soon as the ball was hiked? And I take Phil over Eli any day. Eli had a spectacular day in his SB, but Phil threw darts all day in his.

Conan!, What is good in Football?!

Daa.... to run between the tackles,
To drive the linebackers before you,
And to hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders.

by The Pale Scot on Jul 9, 2009 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thus I quote

“last one to the quarterback is a rotten egg”

Leonard Marshall

Conan!, What is good in Football?!

Daa.... to run between the tackles,
To drive the linebackers before you,
And to hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders.

by The Pale Scot on Jul 9, 2009 9:53 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

'85/86 team all the way

Well in my mind the 1986 team was the best hands down. I think LT would have caused all sorts of havoc, Simms would have played an efficient turnover free game game, Parcells would have pulled some kind of a gimmick out of his bag of tricks, Belechick would have a way to shut down 2007/8 offense and that team would won.

The Giants of that era had the misfortune of being in the middle of a bunch of mini dynasties: the 49ers, the Redskins, and the Bears.

It’s similar to what the Raiders went through in the 70s with having to compete with the Steelers and Dolphins.

by John W on Jul 9, 2009 10:00 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It's hard for me to take the

results of these computer matchups seriously. I mean the computer said Marciano would beat Ali. Oh, wait a minute….

by blue gonz on Jul 9, 2009 10:52 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Just another thing to add or wonder

When would this game have taken place (early, mid, late season or playoffs)? The 85-86 team was great all year. The 07-08 team started off like garbage but we all know the outcome. My point is, if it’s an early game, Parcells’ teams win by a wide margin. If it’s a mid season game, Parcells’ squad wins by 8-10. If it’s late or playoffs, Parcells wins by 3. Again, no research here, just going on gut feeling.

by njgiant on Jul 9, 2009 10:55 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Conditions

This set of simulations was done “in a vacuum,” as it were. No weather conditions were factored in. Just a straight-up matchup.

by Ed Valentine on Jul 9, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

One thing alot of people forget, or might not know, is that the 1985 Giants had a terrific offense, 3rd in the conference in points. Phil Simms threw for almost 4000 yards that year, and did it with Lionel Manuel, Byron Williams, and Bobby Johnson as his WR’s. With that group, to me throwing for 4000 yards should count double, that is pretty damn impressive

That team actually lost two games when they put up over 30 points, which is surprising, as good as that defense was. The 86 team in comparison won 5 games when they scored less than 20 points. Because of the 85 Bears being so incredibly dominant, and a little fortunate with some brutal winds in the playoffs, I think the 85 Giants team gets overlooked, but they probably were the 2nd best team in the NFC, and I would say top 5 in the league that year.

That being said, if I had to break the teams down by positions, here is how I would score it, and this is just which of the four teams in question had the best year at the position

QB: 1985 (Wanted to give this to Eli in 07, but he didn’t hit his stride until late in the year, Phil had it going on all season)
RB: 1986
WR: 2007
TE: 1986
OL: 2007

DL: 2007
LB: 1986
DB: 1986

P: 2007 (but its close, I was a big Landeta fan, as much as you can be a punter fan)
K: 2008 (Carney was definitely more reliable than Allegre or Tynes, although they both get props for big game kicks in their respective seasons)

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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Jul 9, 2009 11:01 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

You forgot Bavaro

He was a difference maker, and the chemistry he had with Simms surpasses anything Eli had with Plax, Toomer or any of those other guys. Bavato was also a stud run-blocking. Bavaro created matchup problems all over the field.

by StubsNY on Jul 9, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another way of looking at it

Assuming that the level of competitiveness among playoff teams was somewhat comparable:

86 Giants (3 games): 105-23

2007 Giants (4 games): 85-65

It would seem to reason then, that the 86 Giants were more dominant over their class of playoff teams (and regular season opponents, for that matter) than was the 07 team. As far as facing each other, that’s too complex for my brain, hence the simulators, which don’t mean much — it’s the egghead version of football. I would however love to see that breakdown of the game like ESPN has in their previews.

I’m sayin, based on regular season record and postseason margin of victory, the 86 Giants were the better team in the context of their era.

You play to win the game!

by Simms-McConkey on Jul 9, 2009 11:17 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Simulation somehow screws up the '86 giants.

How in the world does the simulation have the ’85 Giants in front of the ’86 Giants?

I know I’m biased, but I’ve always considered the ’86 team to be one of the finest squads in NFL history. They won 14 regular season games before cruising to the title. The 86 squad featured the great Lawrence Taylor at the absolute height of his powers, good for 20.5 sacks and an NFL MVP award.

The 2008 squad is probably second best of this group, but they lost when it really mattered, something great teams don’t do. I’d take the 86 team any day.

Out of curiosity, it would be interesting to see how the 1990 Giants fit into this mix. I always felt that was a very good but not great team, probably a little bit better than the 2007 team, but it would be interesting to see what the simulation said.

by BigBlue84 on Jul 9, 2009 12:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It's an oddity

That the simulations have the two non-Super Bowl winning teams coming out better than the winning ones. Really bums me out when I think of what should have been last season.

by Ed Valentine on Jul 9, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it's not that odd

don’t forget the ‘07 Giants were not very good for most of the season. The first two games had TE’s put up like 5000 yards in two games. A goal line stand to a few more wins. And then a real slump culminating in the embarrassment against the Skins.

by queler on Jul 9, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Phil Simms

I consider Phil Simms to one of the greatest QBs of all-time…I used to watch him throw darts even in the windy Meadowlands, the problem?..He had hardly anyone to throw to and catch them….and that ’86 defense was awesome, the Big blue Wrecking Crew, by far the ’86 team was one of the best ever.

by Bobbiblue on Jul 9, 2009 1:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What about the 1990 G-Men?

They started off 10-0, the D was #1 and O was #2. Pepper Johnson was in the mix in the LBs, they had insanely good special teams, and David Meggett. Hoss saved the season several times. Free agency gave us Dave Duerson and Everson Walls.

The 1990 Giants would have given any of those teams a run.

by StubsNY on Jul 9, 2009 2:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I didn't forget them

I was looking at more than a one-year period, though. The ‘85-86 and 2007-08 time periods were very similar. I probably could have added ’89-90 to this, but I didn’t see those teams as being as good as the two I used.

by Ed Valentine on Jul 9, 2009 3:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

no doubt 85/86 was better

did anybody really think o7 team could win it during the season? Frankly, I gave up on Eli. I didn’t start believing till week 15. During 85/86 season I didn’t just believe; I KNEW they were gonna win!

by jerseybillfromva on Jul 9, 2009 11:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i just said the same thing above

Now the really interesting thing would be the team that was a mix of the 2007 week 15 to the second Skins game in 2008.

by queler on Jul 10, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The computer is nuts.

If you could put 2007/2008 on the field with 85/86 then 2007/2008 would win most of the time simply because atheletes are bigger and stronger now. Most 2007/2008 teams would beat the 85/86 Giants team. So I must assume they factor out the inceased size and speed of today’s atheletes otherwise the comparison is pointless.

86 was a great team. They dominated in the playoffs and Superbowl. 2007/2008 have not been dominate at all. 2007 was a medicore team the got hot at the right time. 2008 was a very good team reminiscent of Coughlin’s Jacksonville teams who were regular season champs but lost in the playoffs. Burress had nothing to do with the Giants losing. They lost because their QB could not throw in the winds of Giants stadium. I’d actually take the 86 team over the 2008 team if the conditions were the same. Simms had the arm strength and the ability to throw a tight spiral that is necessary in those heavy winds. Manning does not.

The 85-90 Giants could have easily been the team of the decade instead of the 49ers. Without the 87 strike and if the overtime loss to the Rams in 88 goes the other way you are looking at 4 Superbowl victories.

The ‘86 team was great and deserves consideration when determining the best NFL teams of all time. The 2008 team isn’t even close.

by facade on Jul 10, 2009 8:52 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It would have been real interesting pitting an 08’ team with Plax vs the 86’ Squad..The 86’ team had a lockdown defense with a weak spot in the secondary ( think Toast " ) and a suspect O which came up big when it mattered…Morris,Simms and Bavaro headed an avg unit that I think the 08’ team at full strength would have given them fits…the 86’ pass rush would have given Eli fits and evened things out a bit and the X factor is LT who no one would have been able to handle..

I think the 08 team with Plax and a returning Strahan and a healthy OSI would have probably beaten the 86’ team ..although Tuna is a better coach than Coughlin and LT would still have been the best player on the field… tough call but I say under those circumstances 17-10 08’ Squad… without OSI …Plax and Strahan …I think the 86 ’ team pulls it out 20-17 ..

by MUSKRAT on Jul 11, 2009 2:20 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Without an equalizing factor (like very high winds) the ‘86 squad would have no chance. ’86 could not run on 2008 so their offense would be next to nil. And while Taylor and Banks would make some plays the 2008 offense would just wear down the ’86 defense. By the fourth quarter they’d be pushing the defensive line five yards downfield on every play. The simple truth is most guys on the ’86 squad could not play in todays NFL. They are simply too small and too slow. Jim Burt the ’86 nose tackle weighed 260 lbs. How long would he hold up against an offensive line where everyone is 50-70 pounds heavier than him? 2008 wins 49-6.

’86 is still the better team when judged by what they accomplished against their contemporaries.

by facade on Jul 11, 2009 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

LT vs Jacobs

an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?

by Willgfass on Jul 11, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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