Giants will be different, maybe better

by Ed Valentine on Jul 26, 2009 7:00 AM EDT in New York Giants News

No big Sunday column today. I'm up in the mountains at our summer camp, and I can't seem to find the mojo to put one together. Something about being lake side, I guess.

Anyway, quick post on something I read from The Fifth Down the other day. This should leave you feeling optimistic as training camp approaches.

Worried about how the Giants will move the ball without Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer and Derrick Ward? Think the team didn’t do enough in free agency to offset the losses on offense? Want Jerry Reese to call Marvin Harrison's agent right this very second?

Remain calm. The Giants did what they had to do in the off-season. In Football Outsiders Almanac, we give them a 73 percent chance of winning at least nine games, and a 42 percent chance of winning 11 or more games and contending for the Super Bowl. ...

The Giants faded last season, losing four of their final five games (including a playoff game) after Plaxico Burress shot himself. It’s easy to blame Burress for the December fade, but the Giants’ offense actually played better without Burress than with him, once you account for the quality of their opponents. The Giants’ real problems were on defense ...

Coach Tom Coughlin and Reese, the general manager, prioritized defensive depth with their free-agent acquisitions. Defensive linemen Chris Canty and Rocky Bernard aren’t marquee names, but they give the Giants the kind of line depth they had two years ago, when their pass rush led them to the Super Bowl. Linebacker Michael Boley is suspended for the season opener, but when he returns he’ll add a playmaking element that the Giants lacked at outside linebacker. ...

Domenik Hixon might have dropped a sure touchdown against the Eagles, but he’s a rising star who dropped only one other pass all season. Our player projection formula puts Hixon on pace for an 80-catch, 1,000-yard season. Steve Smith is a capable possession receiver who ranked well above league average at converting third downs. Nicks and Barden join Sinorice Moss and Mario Manningham in the battle for reserve receiver rolls. Factor in Kevin Boss, a better-than-average receiver at tight end, and Eli Manning has plenty of targets.

The N.F.C. East is as tough as ever. The Eagles project to win nine games (9.3, according to our thousands of simulations), the Cowboys and Redskins will hover near .500, and one or two injuries or surprises could drastically change the balance of power. But Giants fans shouldn’t worry about life without Plaxico. They should look forward to seeing Umenyiora, Tuck, Kiwanuka and the new guys chase Tony Romo and Donovan McNabb all season long.

I happen to agree wholeheartedly. Reese has said repeatedly that there is more than one way to win. The Giants will be different in 2009. They will still, however, be very, very good.

Now, back to enjoying the lake.

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Hixon

If Hixon and Smith are the starting receivers for the whole season then Boss had better have a big season. Sorry I don’t see it.

The scenario that is most logical is that no one catches more than 50-55 passes and by the end of the season Nicks is starting, not Hixon. And if no one gets hurt, then passes are spread evenly between Hixon, Smith and Nicks…and maybe Boss. The wild card is Manningham. If he decides to play…it could be interesting. Moss will get hurt and be gone.

Defensively? Deep and talented. A bad combo for the other teams. The rush should be sustained and fearsome.

by MSP Giant on Jul 26, 2009 9:27 AM EDT reply actions

Yeah the ball will have to be spread around

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!

by Joe_D on Jul 26, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't see what's so

wrong with Boss having a big season.

If Boss had say…70 catches for 700+ yards, is that a bad thing? Is it just me or does Boss seem like a Wes Walls or a Mark Chumura type?

Boss and Steve Smith are the most polished pass catchers on the Gints, so why not have them lead in catches?

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 26, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions

If Boss has 70 catches for 700+ yards, then he’ll be in Hawaii for the last game of the season. I think it could be done. Let’s keep our fingers crossed.

by njgiant on Jul 27, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

So the vaunted beast is only predicted to be 9-7 and 8-8 for skins/cowboys?

I don’t see that happening… Unless Hixon turns into a play maker, Reese made a mistake in not getting at least one more difference maker on offense.

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!

by Joe_D on Jul 26, 2009 9:30 AM EDT reply actions

So were supposed to take

Football Outsiders rigorous analysis over a biased Eagles fan’s opinion?

by potroast on Jul 26, 2009 9:40 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

err

visa versa I mean?

by potroast on Jul 26, 2009 9:41 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

What was biased

I said I didn’t see the entire division going 9-7 or 8-8

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!

by Joe_D on Jul 26, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Ah

Misunderstood

by potroast on Jul 26, 2009 11:13 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Honestly that's the best way to predict this division

The Skins are widely regarded as the worst team in the division, but I sure as hell don’t see a whole lot that could prevent them from going 11-5 and taking the division. Same thing (and it pains me to say it) with the Cowboys.

As for the “playmaker on offense”, Plax really was that good. The 2 guys out there were Boldin and Edwards, but you don’t just go replacing a Bentley with a Chrysler 300M, especially if that 300M is gonna cost more than the Bentley.

What the Giants got is a stable full of Kia’s and Hyundai’s. Don’t look like much now, but they hold value over the long term and who knows, maybe 3-5 years from now Hyundai (…take your pick of Gints receivers) may actually be the premier car dealer in the US!!

….did he take a risk not getting one of those guys? Yea, but if all else fails and the team is desperate there is always time to renew talks with the Browns before the trade deadline, cuz its not like the Browns are going anywhere. I also trust Reese enough that he won’t pony up a Jerry Jones like trade too.

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 26, 2009 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Also the Kia’s and Hyundai’s come with a helluva warranty.

by njgiant on Jul 27, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

The numbers don't lie...

There was a time in the NFL when having a premier top tier receiver was a necessity, maybe even a prerequisite to going deep into the playoffs. Certainly teams like the Cards, Colts, and Patriots are testimony that you will win big with a top QB and top tier WRs. But the Eagles, Chargers, Vikings, Titans, and Giants will win lots of games in 2009, quite possibly even the division, without a top tier WR. It wasn’t the lack of a top flight WR that caused the Eagles to exit the playoffs last year. The Steelers do not have one of the top 10 WRs in the league. On the other side of the argument, the Bengals, Cowboys, Panthers, Browns, and others have had a quality QB and a top tier WR but can’t get it done. The Bills have T.O. now… albeit on the wrong side of 30… but that won’t make a difference. If Jerry Reese firmly believed he could not win the Championship without a top tier WR, he would have constructed the deal and did what it took to get one into a Giants uniform. There were deals to be had, but he wouldn’t sacrifice what those teams with top flight WRs wanted from the Giants… a D-line playmaker and pics. Paying Fitzgerald money plus pics for Boldin or Edwards just to have a top flight WR on the field was certainly doable for JR… he doesn’t believe that’s necessary. He’s right.

by buljos on Jul 26, 2009 10:25 AM EDT reply actions

Buljos

I am going to agree with his statement. I really trust Reese at this point. He has drafted really well for us and has made all the right moves. Winning a Super Bowl is extremely hard and all the pieces have to fall in line together. Here’s hoping our dominos align this year.

by wangstu13 on Jul 26, 2009 12:28 PM EDT reply actions

Ehh...

I agree to an extent with the overall thesis of this article, I think that the Giants and Eagles are clearly the two best teams in this division. I believe the Giants have a great chance to make the playoffs, and as anyone knows it is a crapshoot after that. However, I do have to strongly disagree with one sentence. To say that you can project Hixon for an 80-catch, 1,000 yard season to me is laughable if not downright ridiculous. I mean I love Hixon and his skill set. But to approximate his stats to reach that level in the Giants run-first, ball control, spread it around offense makes no sense to me. Sign me up right now if thats the case but I just don’t see it. Hixon is a nice player, but he is not in the top tier of all NFL recievers yet, if he ever does get there. Just my opinion. That said, GO BIG BLUE, and suck it cowboys.

by poetryinmoten21 on Jul 26, 2009 9:09 PM EDT reply actions

I would say if he manages about 600-700 yards

he is overachieving with this offensive set-up.

by brisulph on Jul 27, 2009 7:38 AM EDT up reply actions

giants defense/offense

think we missed buress and the defense wore down. hard to change your offensive philosophy three quarters of the way into the season and tuck&co. wore down, not this year. GO GIANTS!!!

by 7mike on Jul 28, 2009 9:07 AM EDT reply actions

Our prospects @ WR?

OK well, we G-men fans also need to take into account the possibility of perhaps seeing Hakeem Nicks or Ramses Barden making an impact, or maybe even starting, should our #1 and/or 2 get injured or can’t cut the mustard.
Mini-camps up in Albany clearly report that both rookies are showing greta potential.

I believe that the Giants and the Iggies are indeed the front-runners in this awesome NFC East, collectiely the owners of 11 SB’s.

BTW when will Philly contribute to that stat???? lol

by BobosoGoJints on Jul 28, 2009 10:34 PM EDT reply actions