The arguments in Plaxico’s favor seem to be in the "he was just being stupid", "he didn’t hurt anybody else" or "he was carrying for self-protection" categories. I don’t know of anyone maintaining he was actually planning or looking to get into a gun battle that night.

Personally, I think the most likely motivation for Plax carrying a loaded weapon was completing the wannabe gangsta image he likes to portray, including the high-end sweat suit, the roll of cash, the flashy bling, etc. If I hadn’t already seen it on the Dave Chappell Show, this case would certainly have spawned that hilarious segment: "When Keepin’ It Real Goes Wrong" … Stupid, yes. Immature, yes. Reckless, you betcha. But even with the conspicuous valuables, I can’t buy the "he was carrying for protection" line, as he was totally in control of what he was wearing, carrying, where he was going (he was in a club, not a back alley), and he had a small "posse" in tow. Carrying a loaded gun in your shorts (pointed at your junk?!?) … just to make a "fashion statement" is reeaally stupid …

So what will he get?

Per Sal Paolantonio on ESPN.com:

The most common way to avoid the three-and-half years mandatory minimum sentence is to get the charge lowered to a third-degree possession.

But last year, in New York City, nearly 80 percent of the people convicted of a third-degree charge still ended up behind bars, according to the New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services. Of those people, 41 percent ended up serving more than one year in jail; 24 percent ended up serving one year in jail; 6 percent less than one year in jail, and 6 percent had a mixture of jail and probation 24 percent only had probation.

One would think that second degree charge would carry with it some assumption that the person packing a concealed loaded hand gun, was either "up to no good" based on additional evidence, had "priors", or had a history of weapons use or violence, and therefore a higher propensity to "find trouble" while packing. Stupidity is the most likely motivation in this case, and the "didn’t hurt anyone else" angle should help (although it was only luck that directed the bullet to Plax’s thigh and not to an innocent bystander). So, I’d put it at way better than 50/50 that he can plead down.

Now, what is the likelihood of any or significant jail time under a plea deal to the lower charge?

I gotta believe the 76% that do some jail time still have some past record, or aggravating circumstances that don’t exist in Plax case. Certainly a good shot at the 24% probation only, or 6% mixture of probation/jail. If he can get no jail time or 3-4 months that he could do before camp, I would think his lawyer will urge him to take it. If a plea deal is announced by tomorrow, it’s for one of these two options. Otherwise, expect a "not guilty" plea, and a major roll of the dice by Plax.

Plax’s best "shot": Probation – 4 game league suspension – Giants take him back, or cut him and he can still have a few good years in the league at 32.

Should the Giants take him back? I have mixed feelings. If he has really learned a lesson (major consequences do tend to have that effect on people), then yes. If not, no. Do I think he has? Have my doubts. Just seems to be a very deep seated "chip on shoulder" / "distain for all authority" streak in this guy. For his sake, more than the Giants’, I sure hope so.

Thanks!

Maybe he can get some way cool “prison tats” for his bad-ass-self image …

Although, seriously, most of his team-mates do seem to think he is personally a good guy. Makes you wonder why he has to “play gangsta”, and all the immature dissing authority minor rule breaking, when he (like many pros) have had such a level of success, and have so many options in life he probably never thought he’d have growing up.

Personally, I have no idea if he is or isn’t a gangsta wanna be. He has been depicted as such only recently—the costume, the bling, the gun toting. Okay, maybe some slight clues that he is, but nothing definitive vs. testaments to his good guyness from some team mates and management.

Granted it’s just an opinion. But there are a lot of clues in a consistent pattern. Watch his sideline demeanor. Always puts on the ball cap with the sideways brim “attitude” (you make think that’s nit picky, but part of the pattern), the constant flouting of small team rules, the cursing out of Coughlin coming off the field after a 15-yard unsportsmanlike, the running 20 laps each day in military school rather than salute the younger students with higher rank, the married guy who has to go to strip clubs, the general surly demeanor. It’s the “that’s the way I roll”, “just keepin’ it real” attitude that he has to outgrow. Some major unresolved issues from growing up hard, I suspect. Shockey has a similar chip on his shoulder, and general bad behavior, but it didn’t quite snowball as bad as it has with Plax.

Also, like Antonio Pierce’s comment when asked why they were at the strip club earlier that night – “I’m a grown man. I do what I want.” (oh yeah, he’s married, too …) That sounds like Plax’s credo to me.

Bottom line, I hope he gets the 3 months and probation deal, as it might just be the best thing for Plax as a person, forget the football for a moment. Anything less might not be enough of a wake up call to get to a deep down change of attitude.