For the Giants, the numbers tell the story of the season
by Ed Valentine on Nov 4, 2009 10:02 AM EST
in New York Giants News
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PrintOur New York Giants are halfway through the 2009 season. Normally, that is the perfect time to issue some mid-season grades, or 'Kudos & Wet Willies,' or something along those lines.
The Giants have their bye after this weekend's game with San Diego, however, and I think we will know a lot more about the direction of the season after Sunday. So, I will hold off on that 'report card' type post until then.
If you need mid-season grades, Ralph Vacchiano offers up a must-read. Ernie Palladino also offers his grades.
For now, read the numbers below carefully. They come from Giants.com, and they tell the story of the Giants season very accurately. Starkly, they support my position that as much as complaining about Kevin Gilbride in the favorite pastime of many Giants fans the problems on this team are first and foremost with the defense -- not the offense.
And yes, I say that knowing Eli Manning has to stop turning the ball over for the Giants to win. Anyway, on with the numbers.
- The Giants have been 5-3 or better in the first half of each of Tom Coughlin's six seasons as head coach. The current 5-3 mark has improved their record to 35-13 (.729) in the first eight games since Coughlin arrived in 2004.
- The Giants are fifth in the league with an average of 386.9 yards a game, or 15.5 more than they were gaining halfway through the 2008 season. For the first time under Coughlin, they have gained more than 3,000 yards in half a season. They are on pace to finish with 6,190 yards, which would shatter the franchise record of 5,884 yards, set in 1985.
- The Giants are averaging 26.5 points a game, which is ninth in the league and down slightly from the 28.3 they averaged at this point last season. They have scored 23 touchdowns (seven rushing, 14 passing and two returns), one less than they had last year (when the breakdown was 10 rushing, 13 passing and one return).
- Their average time of possession of 33:57 is 56 seconds more than last year, a Coughlin-era high and second in the NFL, behind New England's 34:22.
- But this year, the Giants rely on their passing attack to control the ball much more than they did last year. Their rushing output has dropped by more than 20 yards a game, from 162.6 last year to the current figure of 141.8. Brandon Jacobs has run for 550 yards and a 3.9-yard average after finishing the first half with 680 yards and a 5.2-yard average in 2008. The team average has slipped from 5.2 to 4.4 yards a carry. The passing game has picked up the slack, averaging 245.1 yards a game, 36.3 more than last year and 29 more than the Giants' best first half under Coughlin, set in 2006.
- The Giants have 15 takeaways and 14 turnovers, a plus one differential. At midseason last year, they had 13 takeaways and seven turnovers (on their way to a league record-tying 13), for a plus-six differential.
- Defensively, the Giants are third in the NFL in yards allowed per game (278.1) but 22nd in points allowed (22.9). That is 17.7 more yards and 6.8 more points than the Giants were giving up at this time last year. Their opponents have scored 24 touchdowns (12 rushing and 12 passing) - 10 more than at this time last year.
- The opponents' biggest improvement has been on the ground. The Giants are allowing 113.1 rushing yards a game, a sharp rise from the 85.4 they were giving up a year ago. At the same time, opposing passing yardage is down, dropping from 175.0 to 165.0 a game.
- That last figure is perhaps surprising, given that the Giants have five fewer interceptions (11-6) and 12 fewer sacks (30-18) than they did at the midpoint of the 2008 season. The Giants also had 30 sacks halfway through the 2007 season.
- Giants opponents are averaging 5.2 yards per play, compared to 4.6 last year.
- In 2008, Justin Tuck was the Giants' midseason sack leader with 8.5. Mathias Kiwanuka was second with 6.0. This year, Osi Umenyiora leads with 4.0, followed by Tuck with 3.5.
- Opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of 86.3, or 16.1 points higher than last year's 70.2.
- Last year at this time, the Giants had shown significant improvement in their red zone defense. They had allowed only five touchdowns on 14 opposing trips inside their 20-yard line, a touchdown percentage of 35.7. This season, the arrow is pointing in the other direction. The Giants have allowed 19 touchdowns in 26 opposition trips inside the 20-yard line, a 73.1 percent rate that has the Giants at the bottom of the NFL.
Here are the up-to-date stats for the Giants at the halfway point of the season.
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Well, this isn't exactly a number
but the Giants offense seems completely unable to play from behind, when they get down by double digits early … which is why the D had better right the ship … and soon.
No offense
is meant to erase double-digit deficits. When the defense can’t stop anybody the offense ends up taking risks it otherwise probably would not.
by Ed Valentine on Nov 4, 2009 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed ... if it is late 3rd Q or early 4th.
But, we do see other teams that can come back if down double digits in the 1st half. The minute our O is down that much, even if there is sufficient time to “keep to the game plan”, it seems we are lost as to what to do.
that's the problem.
I think the Giants offense can come back for 3 TD’s…
Its just, they’re trying to damn hard to get 3TD’s on one drive.
I really don’t understand why they all of a sudden seem to be taking to heart the idea that a conservative offense can’t score points.
The Giants were getting the crap knocked out of them in that Panthers game last year. What did they do? Run the ball, screen passes, all that sort of good stuff…there might even have been some play action and slants.
I’ve said it a million times. I like the idea of going downfield. But if they’re gonna do that, yet abolish the short passes and runs that got them to the SB, 12-4 and 5-0 this year….I just don’t understand what the hell they’re thinking.
DO WHAT JERRY HAIRSTON DO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Stats really mean nothing..
When your losing, the only stat I recognize is a 5-3 record..It’s like "Oh wow, we are doing better in the running, recieving, passing, blah blah blah…Fact is this stat: We’re losing!!..Is anyone out here going to feel great about our team’s positive increase in stats??..No I hope not..a statistical analysis at this point in the season is pointless..The stats posted thus far are now in a toilet swirl..If they keep playing the way they are now, we’ll see a huge negative set of stats at season end…I can’t stand reading about Oh this guy did great, that guy did great..Well how did all 11 do on each side of the ball?..Net statistical result: Crappy…If they don’t figure something out this week we are going to be 5-4..We went from 1 to 3 in the division..and we accomplished that feat in three weeks…Now there are some stats to ponder.
More importantly
We need to see the missed tackles statistic, our linebackers would then have some league leading stats!
Jerry,
Please cut Antonio Pierce.
Thanks,
DB
Gotta say...
at this point..I really don’t care about stats…tho, Ed its nice to see how players are doing. I haven’t even paid attention to them either over the past 3 weeks. When you hear about things like “#1 defense in the league” going into the Eagles game? You kinda DON’T wanna look at stats.
2 things to take from it. Steve Smith…hell of a year so far. I really don’t understand why he’s not running slants and all a that stuff from the Cowboys game. I mean, I still have no problem with the deep and intermediate routes..but jabs before the haymakers is a tried and true strategy with Steve Smith.
Also…I’m ASTOUNDED to see that Rocky Bernard has 12 tackles, aka as much as Cofield. Really..I can’t say I’ve heard Bernard’s name called more than once all season. The fact he has more tackles than Cofield…who’s played well (I at least know he’s out there…) is amazing.
DO WHAT JERRY HAIRSTON DO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ASTOUNDED
That’s the right word. I don’t even remember hearing his name. Of course, as I’ve said before, I don’t always remember what I remember.
The numbers
I know the one that matters most is 5-3, with three straight losses. All the stats do is back up a lot of what we have been talking about.
+1
Thanks for putting these up Ed. It lays out the Giants problems in a more concrete way, rather than the subjective view we’ve had to this point. It really lays bare the issues that this defense is having.
I think it’s interesting that the pass defense is actually giving up less yardage than last year with less sacks and INTs. Is this due to the fact that teams are playing from ahead, getting higher % of yardage from runs, or are these stats skewed because the Giants racked up some stats against lousy passing Os?
Things have gotten so bad...
Richard Seymour is guaranteeing the Giants will make the playoffs!
(ba dum CRASH)
You play to win the game!
Consider these numbers
The Giants were pretty good in 2007, compared to now.
In 2007, safeties made 19% of tackles; in 2009, they made 30%.
In 2007, cornerbacks made 18% of tackles; in 2009, they made 10%.
In 2007, linebackers made 30% of tackles; in 2009, they made 33%.
In 2007, defensive tackles made 8% of tackles; in 2009, they made 10%.
In 2007, defensive ends made 17% of tackles; in 2009, they made 17%.
So after just a quick look, it seems to me that the problem isn’t so much the safeties as the fact the safeties are being exposed more. Maybe it’s different defensive allignments. Maybe the problem is with the cornerbacks. Maybe opposing offenses are playing us differently than in 2007. But I have to disagree with Bobbiblue, I think you have to look at statistics to help figure out what’s happening.
TerraByte, where have you been?
I.ve missed your Stats analyses
Exactly
They are badly exposed because of the poor play in front of them. Although that still does not excuse their mistakes, the fact is many of those plays should not even be getting to them.
Good luck
Tough Racket. Got an agent? A contract? If you’re doing it on spec, double good luck.
Good for you.
Do you have an outline/proposal? It wouldn’t hurt to shop it around before you self-publish.
I'm 3/4 done with the final rewrite. I hope to finish this year. I've been writing it since 1997.
Stats with Cats
Most people have leaned some statistics in high school or college, but going from statistics in the classroom to statistics on the job isn’t always easy. This book is an attempt to bridge the gap between the scores of introductory textbooks on statistics and the real world of solving problems with messy data. Think of Stats with Cats as a textbook for Statistics 101.5.
If you’re on Facebook, there’s a group for it.
I'm telling you,
it sounds marketable to me. I can give you some leads. If you’re interested, Ed can give you my e-mail address.
Great stats. Thanks Ed
There are some positives there, particularly on the O-side of the ball. Just need the D to stop leaking points like a sieve.
He was like a god walking amongst mere mortals. He had a voice that could make a wolverine purr and suits so fine they made Sinatra look like a hobo.
Screw Stats
Bobbiblue was absolutely right. Only important stat is win-loss. If stats fail to reveal team’s problems just means we shouldn’t pay any attention to stats.
Debate as to offense v. defense problems is silly. Both need to function if team is to win, and neither are functioning. Opponents have been scoring many easy points while our offense can’t score. Fix the defense and the offense still doesn’t score. Fix the offense and the defense is still giving up lots of points.
As to “we shouldn’t panic”, “need to stick to with our basic strategy”, and “return to what we do best and everything will automatically set itself right” , where were these people during the last three defeats? Could not have been watching the Giants, because they didn’t lose by a few points or one or two unfortunate errors. Virtually all parts of team have shown substantial flaws: Quarterbacking, OL, limited running game, game planning, clock management, DL, secondary, and coaching, getting ball into endzone, execution. Saying that Boss or Osi had some good games, or that there is a lot of talent on this team, doesn’t fix the problems.
In fact, sounds like that idiot Star Ledger writer who felt that problem was that Giants had lost their swagger, with the presumption that if Giants try and believe just a little bit harder, everything will be okay.
I’ll admit there were some improvements, such as more use of Boss, more attempted blitzes, but at this rate, team will be ready by March.
The thing to remember about stats ...
is it’s more about logic than math. It points you to an area that you can then use your other analytical skills to figure out what it is really telling you.
Yes Shof I understand that..
And Ed did alot of hard work posting them, but logical statistical analysis is a great tool during the off-season for input on the draft and free agency…We are not in need of logic right now..We are in desperate need of common sense, hence my stats are 5-3 and heading for 5-4 if they don’t do some “Common Sense” analysis..How did the whole team do each week?..Who cares if parts of the team do great and it averages out over 8 games and imply were better than last year or the year before?..The whole unit on defense and offense need to statistically peak every week..This isn’t about math this is about football and how both units collectively perform each week.
Agree ... sort of
with Shof that stats can help us identify areas where a team is underperforming, but the answer is not in the stats. Also, of course, it does rest on having the ‘correct’ stats available. I don’t have time to do the work, but I would be interested in the caught/dropped stats for each of the receivers. Also, some sort of estimate/stat on what proportion of Eli’s throws were ‘catchable’. I am amazed when the game commentators talk about Eli “throwing the ball away” when it just looks like a bad throw to me. I would also be interested in his proportion of catchable throws that are thrown under pressure. A nice stat would be something to do with the activity of the nearest defender when an opposition receiver gets the ball (eg., close, ‘stood up’, asleep, competing, etc.).
He was like a god walking amongst mere mortals. He had a voice that could make a wolverine purr and suits so fine they made Sinatra look like a hobo.
If you want to look at stats....
Take a look at the stats in the red zone for our defense. There horrible. 90% of the time the offense is scoring and mostly it’s TDs. Couple that with our Offense sputtering in the red zone and you have our dilemma. Giants games aren’t supposed to be high scoring affairs. Can we get back to winning the way we always have? Pounding it out and winning methodically?
Fixable problems
Talent is there – performance is not. Except for one safety slot the potential to fix this is there.
Ralph V writes a great piece. Takeaways:
- no help is coming
- middle of DL is lacking
- need to run more ( we knew that)
- Eli is inconsistent ( we knew that too)
- maybe Sheridan SHOULD be up in the booth
So.
- coaching MUST improve ( I think Sheridan can do it)
- D must compensate for that weak safety slot whoever that is. Should we see more Bernard? Canty returning?
- run game has to return to being a focus (AB and BJ can both make 1,000 yards this year. Surprised?)
- Manning needs to get back in a groove. The pendulum can easily swing the other way IF he is not hurt.
Very do-able. Personally I think they get back on track and make the playoffs. After that, who knows?
Read that too
I find the contention that Sheridan should move to the booth particularly compelling. If he’s more comfortable there & feels like he can make adjustments better there, then I’m all for it.
Turnovers
have so much impact on a game, aside from a possible scoring oppunity,
it affects the teams morale. loses momentum, good teams always have positive
turnover ratios.
The plan
was to go deep much more than in the past, if you remember the pre-season that’s what they said was the plan, so some of the offensive offense is caused by execution and a lack of the ability to change tactics, why we were trying to fix whbat wasn’t broken is beyond me.
The defense is just a mess and again the inability to change, wheather it be personel or scheme.
We try to change things in the offseason, well we don’t have that kind of time TC, change it up now, PLEASE????
wrong stat: Bruce Johnson
I only skimmed the whole stat sheet, but doesn’t Bruce Johnson have a Int TD!!!
Opus smart , lascivio magis , intereo gauisus...
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