Hi. My name is TerraByte and I’m a numberholic. I analyze business data all day at work and then come home and analyze data from sports, politics, and anything else I can get my hands on. I’ve tried to cut back, but ETVal’s post on Jeremy Shockey sent me off on this bender.

I’ve always thought of the Giants as a running team. There was Little Joe, Rodney, Tiki, Ottis. Three yards and a cloud of dust. But all that has changed. Now we talk about Eli, Plaxico, Amani, and Jeremy. What happened? I believe the transition was the result of changes in coaching philosophy, the acquisition of more talented backup players, and the emergence of stars. Consider this graph of data on Giants receiving between the 1990 and 2007 seasons. To put the data into perspective, summaries of the coach, the team record, the percentage of plays that were passes, the QB with the most attempts, the overall pass completion rate, the number of passing TDs, and the receivers who accounted for 60% of the total team receptions appear at the bottom of the Figure.

via i16.photobucket.com

On average, about 46% of the plays called by Parcells, Handley, and Reeves were pass attempts compared to 51% for Fassel and Coughlin. The difference seems small, accounting for only about three additional pass plays per game, but the difference in perception is great. A change that may be related is the number of receivers used to receive 60% of the passes. In the Parcells era, Phil Simms spread the ball around to whoever could get open, so that four to five receivers accounted for 60% of the receptions. Since the 1999 season, usually only three receivers account for 60% of the receptions. I think this may be attributable to having better starting receivers.

The brown, red, and purple lines show total receptions, total passing yards, and yards per game. These lines show two interesting patterns. First, the lines parallel the same generally increasing trend as the percent of passing plays. Second, there is a notable increase in the receptions and yards from 1999 to 2003. I believe this increase reflects the emergence of the Collins to Toomer connection under Fassel.

The colors in the background of the Figure represent the percentages of receptions caught by backs (top), tight ends, and receivers (bottom). Since the Reeves era, wide receivers have caught about half of the passes. Receptions by backs dropped by half, from about 40% to 20%. This is certainly not a reflection of Tiki’s efforts, rather, I believe it shows the effects of tight ends. The three years after the retirement of Mark Bavaro did not feature tight ends. None made it into the top 60% of receptions. From 1994 through 1997, Howard Cross was one of the top four receivers three times and Aaron Pierce once. Then there was another dry spell until Jeremy Shockey arrived in 2002. Shockey’s effect was immediate and substantial. And as ETVal has pointed out, Shockey may think his role is being reduced but it doesn’t show in the numbers.

So with a pass-oriented coach calling the plays and stars players in place at QB, TE, and WR, I believe the evolution of Giants receiving will continue. This should be good news for Smith, Boss, Manningham, and maybe even Moss