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What do the numbers really say about Jeremy Shockey?

Shockey_medium
Jeremy Shockey's
chief complaint with the New York Giants for the past couple of seasons is that the ball just doesn't come his way often enough. Let's look at the hard numbers and see just how valid his complaint is.

In Shockey's rookie season, 2002, he led all tight ends with 74 catches. In 2006, the last full season he played, he caught 66 passes, a good number that placed him 5th among all tight ends. Last season he had 57 catches in 14 games -- a number that means he would have roughly equaled 2006 if he had played all 16 games.

So, Shockey hardly has a beef if his contention is that the Giants ignore him on offense.

Let's look deeper than just the number of catches to see how effective Shockey has been.

Football Outsiders  uses a couple of statistics One, called "Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement" or DPAR to rank players at each position. Another, "Defense-adjusted Value Over Average" or DVOA, represent value per play.

When looking at tight ends, Shockey ranked third in the NFL in DPAR in 2002 and only 20th in DVOA despite his 74 catches.

For me, the really interesting number in the 2002 stats is that the Giants tried to throw the ball to Shockey 127 times. Only one other tight end, Baltimore's Todd Heap, had more than 100 balls thrown his way. Heap had 122 passes thrown in his direction.

Fast-forward to 2006, and you find that the Giants tried to throw the ball to Shockey 115 times -- a difference of less than one fewer throw per game. Or, hardly a noticeable change at all.

The real difference? In 2006, there were six tight ends who had more than 100 balls thrown in their direction. Only San Diego's Antonio Gates (120) had more than Shockey.

In 2007, there were five tight ends with more than 100 balls thrown their way. Shockey had 93 in 14 games, so he would likely have made the total six. In 2007, though, three tight ends -- Jason Witten (Dallas), Tony Gonzalez (Kansas City) and Kellen Winslow (Cleveland) had more than 130 balls throw in their direction.

When I look at those numbers this is what I see. The Giants aren't necessarily throwing the ball to Shockey less -- though the number of pass attempts going in his direction is down very slightly.

The reality is that it seems other teams are using their tight ends more. While Shockey's opportunities have remained relatively static, tight ends like Witten, Gonzalez, Heap and Winslow are seeing more balls than ever heading in their direction.

The other thing that jumps out at me from the Football Outsiders analysis is that the Giants are incredibly inefficient when they throw the ball to Shockey.

In 2007, Shockey caught  61% of passes thrown in his direction. In the two previous seasons the Giants were successful completing passes to Shockey only 57 and 53% of the time.

The completion percentage numbers seem to be 65% or higher for most of the elite tight ends, though Winslow (55% in 2007) is an exception.

What does that tell me? I think it's been obvious, but the numbers back up the belief that the relationship between Shockey and his quarterback, Eli Manning, isn't that good.

How to fix that? Again, obvious. Instead of complaining, Mr. Miami needs to get to New Jersey more often and forge a better relationship with Eli.

We have been saying it for a long time, but if Shockey would stop being such a stubborn, selfish jerk and actually put in some work with his quarterback a lot of his issues would take care of themselves.

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The numbers and your words say it all, Ed.

If Shock didn’t drop so many balls, his efficiency average might go up. If he worked more closely with his QB, he wouldn’t drop so many balls.

by george cronin on May 22, 2008 7:16 AM EDT   0 recs

Certainly

Based on history, do we really expect him to show up when he should and work more closely with Eli?

Maybe he’ll prove me wrong, but I just don’t see it happening. He does need to take some of his cash and purchase a few lessons on how to hold onto the ball. It couldn’t hurt.

I hope we don’t have a trainwreck coming this season. Maybe we won’t have to treat him like Philly did “the player”. Potential is a good thing, and Shockey still has loads of it; however, it’s not a great thing. It’s only a gauge of what can be, not of what is. Hopefully he’ll realize that he can be a vital part of the offense, and hopefully the seemingly negative talk about him will generate some kind of drive in him to succeed, whether it be blocking, catching, running, or scoring TDs. A fully-focused Shockey could cause pure hell for any of our foes.

We didn't even have a chance for the "perfect season", but we did have the perfect ending.

by GAgiantfan on May 22, 2008 12:08 PM EDT   0 recs

Of course we don't

I was just pointing out that his role in the offense has not diminished as much as he would like you to believe. also, that some of the issues COULD be helped by him having a better attitude, which won’t happen.

by ETVal on May 22, 2008 12:11 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I got ya Ed

Great points and excellent delivery, as usual. Excuse my negativity lol.

And you’re right on target, he doesn’t have a thing to bitch about, except that he’s dropped too many balls. That didn’t sound right lol

We didn't even have a chance for the "perfect season", but we did have the perfect ending.

by GAgiantfan on May 22, 2008 12:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Geesh!!

You’re not supposed to make me laugh like that while I’m at work.

by ETVal on May 22, 2008 1:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Agreed

The great thing about the situation now is (hopefully) Shockey feels like he has something to prove. The Giants won without him and his backup (!!) was able to shine in his absence. Then, in the offseason, he was trade bait. While I still think he should have been traded, Shockey must know he’s on the clock (or, as Colbert would say, Shockey is officially “On Notice”).

Anyway, I say he is a model citizen this season even though his lack of rapport with Eli will still result in dropped passes, etc.

by Cody K on May 22, 2008 12:35 PM EDT   0 recs

How many of those throws were uncatchable?

I’m not trying to defend Shockey but let’s not forget that even though Eli was great in the playoffs he still was somewhat inaccurate with his tosses most of the season though I’m sure bad routes and dropped passes were also part of the problem. In the one game Shockey was featured as the receiver of choice he had a great day with about 130 yards. Not bad for a tight end.

If Eli has truly come of age, and I think he has, and he and Shockey get on the same page, our passing game has a chance to be the best in the league, especially considering our wide reciever veterans, our new wideouts, and two great tight ends to spread the defense.

by giant fan since 57 on May 22, 2008 6:29 PM EDT   0 recs

True

There are a variety of factors. My only point was that Shockey is to blame for some of it, and the situation isn’t as bad for him as he believes.

by ETVal on May 22, 2008 6:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Good point

Eli’s career completion is 55% and last year he threw 56%, so completions to Shockey are in that range. Now while passes to TEs are generally safer than other throws, let’s keep in mind that Eli is not exactly the most accurate passer in the NFL.

That being said, it just appears to me that they are often not on the same page. There was a noticeable change in Eli’s connection with Plax this past year, which most attributed to hard work. These 2 need to get on the same page & in needs to start in NJ, not Miami.

by potroast on May 22, 2008 6:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The plan

sounds good. However, it doesn’t matter how long they are on the same team together, there’s nothing better for QBs and WRs than a little street ball in the here and now (not that you don’t know that). And I just don’t see Shockey trying to show up early to work out kinks. I agree that Eli has come of age, but it’ll be hard for them to be on the same page if Shockey never shows up when he should. A defensive guy can skip stuff and get away with it some, but then again he’s not depending on another guy to get him the ball at the right place and at the right time.

We didn't even have a chance for the "perfect season", but we did have the perfect ending.

by GAgiantfan on May 22, 2008 9:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Eli...

It ought to be more obvious where the fault lies this year, assuming as we are, that Eli is more accurate. Game flm should tell the truth about whether they are able to anticipate each others moves.

The situation with Toomer does seem to show that running great routes makes a QB more accurate. Toomer has probably dropped more passes than Shockey yet he runs great routes with the result that they just look more in tune with each other. Look at the catches Toomer has made just by getting into position to give Eli the best chance for a completion.

by giant fan since 57 on May 23, 2008 5:31 AM EDT   0 recs

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