Eli vs Ben: A look at division disparity
Teams play division opponents in 37.5% of regular season games - a significant percentage. The NFC East has been the better division by a wide margin compared to the AFC North. And not just this season, but for the past few years. The Steelers have been a very good/great and consistent team, but look at who they've benefited by playing nearly 40% of their games against: Cleveland, Cincy, and a very inconsistent Ravens team. By contrast, Eli and the Giants have had to deal with three division opponents who have all been good, and at various times great, over the course of his career.
I know this has been discussed ad nauseum in a post by ETVal from yesterday, but I saw no one bring up this angle in their discussion. It's true Big Ben's numbers are better. Here they are, copied from said post from yesterday:
- Completion percentage: Advantage Roethlisberger, 63.2% to 55.4%.
- Quarterback rating: Advantage Roethlisberger, 93.0 to 74.9.
- Interceptions: Eli has 68 to Ben's 57, although Eli has about 400 more attempts.
- Touchdowns: Advantage Roethlisberger, 93-85.
Now, can we assume that two quarterbacks can be compared ceteris parabis? The answer, of course, is no, since all other things are not equal! Had both QB's in question played all the same teams then sure, one could make that claim. Unfortunately for those in the Roethlisberger camp this is not the case. I assert that Ben's career stats have been padded while Eli's were stifled due to the disparity in power of their respective divisions.
Here's the proof: Starting with the '04 season, Roethlisberger has played 62 games; Manning has played 63. This is to illustrate that they have nearly the same amount of pro experience and time on the field. During this time, the combined record of Pittsburgh's division opponents is 96-115 (a .455 win percentage) while the combined record of the Giants' division foes is 116-96 (.547). This is quite the disparity. In looking back at the numbers above copied from yesterday's post, Ben's stats aren't that much better. If division disparity is taken into account, a stronger argument can be made for Eli Manning.
This by no means is to say Eli is definitively the better QB. I think it's still too soon to tell. The point of this post is to show that they are actually closer than fans and pundits think. We might see on Sunday whether or not this is true, but it still won't give a clear answer. I'd like to know what you guys think (especially Ismail, who certainly had a lot to say in Roethlisberger's defense). Does my argument make sense?
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Comments
Interesting point
I certainly had not really thought about that. It is definitely a point worthy of consideration when you talk about both guys. I defended Eli yesterday and I won’t back off that. That said, no matter which side of this debate you are on this is no right or wrong answer. Both guys are top-notch quarterbacks.
by Ed Valentine on Oct 24, 2008 4:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
top notch quarterback
it feels weird sayuing that and Eli in the same statement doesn’t it?
i’m so happy we finally can say it about him
by Hoyadestroya85 on Oct 25, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One thing to remember is that division games only account for 3/8 of the schedule. I’d like to see the strength of schedule numbers for all the games. I have a feeling that the Steelers non-divisional opponents would be stronger because they played in the AFC, but at the very least it would mellow out the disparity you showed. Still, you have a point.
charity standing orders
by BadMaafala on Oct 24, 2008 5:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good thought one addition
The steelers are in the AFC however which up until this year had been traditionally stacked compared to the NFC. I’ll give you that the NFC East is decent year by year, but the Steelers have had stiff out of division competition. They play the Pats most years, plus Indi more often then not. Add a little bit of JAX and San Diego and you’ve got a lot of hard teams.
Also even though the Ravens on the whole have been up and down, their defense has remained excellent. I challenge any QB to have consistently good numbers against the Ravens over the last 4 years.
by Chicago Steeler on Oct 24, 2008 5:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
These are good points
I especially can’t disagree with you on the Ravens D. Even when they were 5-11 the defense was way above average. So, damn, I have to concede that point.
by Starkstastic on Oct 24, 2008 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Debate
Ah, I love a good debate where people reach deeeeep into the stats and all to make their cases. This is good stuff.
by Ed Valentine on Oct 24, 2008 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ask, and ye shall receive...
here are the records, with the team’s record first followed by their opponents overall record, since Eli and Ben both entered the league.
2004 NYG: 6-10 / 107-101
2004 PIT: 15-1 / 103-105
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2005 NYG: 11-5 / 101-107
2005 PIT: 11-5 / 103-105
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2006 NYG: 8-8 / 109-99
2006 PIT: 8-8 / 102-106
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2007 NYG: 10-6 / 100-108
2007 PIT: 10-6 / 94-114
Eerily similar for the most part. Especially the records, minus Ben’s first lights out year, both teams put up exactly the same records. Freaky.
Overall since Ben and Eli have been in the league:
NYG: 417-415 for .501
PIT: 402-430 for .483
There ya have it. As for as team records go, Pit has faced teams that have won less than the boys in blue. Again, it’s pretty close, but I would have to say Eli has faced stiffer competition, if only nominally. The biggest disparity comes from last year, when our opponents were considerably less than the Giants.
by steelerark on Oct 24, 2008 8:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
during Big Ben's best season
hmmm…..
by cjmulrain on Oct 25, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks buddy
charity standing orders
by BadMaafala on Oct 25, 2008 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hehe
sorry, I set out to prove you right, because I wholeheartedly agreed with you.
by steelerark on Oct 26, 2008 4:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow dude
Excellent work…that’s really going above and beyond.
by Starkstastic on Oct 24, 2008 10:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good reading Steel and Stark
THANKS.
We're only gonna score 17 points?
by big blue wrecking crew on Oct 25, 2008 8:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Um...Eli wins
Still doesn’t prove anything definitely, but suck it Steelers fans.
by Starkstastic on Oct 26, 2008 9:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Easy Starks
We’re all happy, but stay classy. Steeler fans were pretty good to us all week.
by Ed Valentine on Oct 26, 2008 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
meh
I’ll take a suck it after the piss-poor game that Ben played. It would be nice if our line held a candle to yours, but none-the-less congrats to your coaches especially.
I watched that game with incredible envy on the offensive side of the ball. Your play calling seemed to switch every drive. Granted the Steelers defense was still winning most of the time, but the play calls were never static. Maybe on the one yard line they ran the same plays over and over, but with brandon jacobs you’ve gotta think you can get four inches.
I’ve mentioned this over at BTSC but that was a performance by the Giants that I respect. I loved the defensive play calling at the end of the game. Ya’ll kept bringing at least 5 and faking more blitzers than that. Screw prevent defenses, they don’t win games. Plus Spagnola basically identified our rookie receiver as being unable to take advantage of his CB being way off because he’s either blitzing or pretending to. And sweed could not make him pay.
I hope we see ya’ll again in February. And maybe that time we’ll have a long-snapper and an OC without his head up his arse.
by Chicago Steeler on Oct 27, 2008 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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